Axios

Iranian hackers tied to a recent U.S. cyberattack have been running a broader intimidation campaign that involved issuing death threats and suggesting they have ties to a Mexican cartel to "commit acts of violence," the Justice Department said Thursday.

Why it matters: The campaign shows Iran's cyber playbook is moving beyond hacking companies and is now pairing cyberattacks with tactics to coerce targets and shape narratives.

House Republicans blanched at the Pentagon's reported $200 billion price tag for Iran, but many are embracing the eye-popping number to help energize a stalled reconciliation process.

Why it matters: GOP leaders have struggled to build consensus around a "reconciliation 2.0" package. But injecting a must-pass defense spending bill into the equation will give Speaker Mike Johnson the urgency he needs to bring it to the floor.

The Iran war is driving markets down and energy prices up — and the duration and direction of the conflict will partially be determined by what takes place in a few key locations.

Why it matters: Escalating tensions could all shape how and when the war ends. Any attack or strategic move could push the war into a new phase.

Following strikes hitting military targets on Iran's Kharg Island last week, President Trump is escalating threats to take the island in an effort to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The big picture: Just 15 miles off Iran's coast, Kharg Island handles about 90% of the country's crude oil exports — and a direct hit on the export terminal would shut down most of that flow.

Former counterterrorism official Joe Kent catapulted into headlines this week after he claimed in his resignation letter that Iran posed "no imminent threat" to the U.S.

Why it matters: Despite the Trump administration's immediate attacks on his credibility, Kent has typically aligned himself with conservative values and the MAGA brand, previously earning praise from President Trump.

Nearly three weeks into the Iran war, the risk of sustained disruption to global energy supplies is getting worse, not better. That's raising the possibility of tighter money and higher borrowing costs worldwide.

The big picture: Global policymakers can't wave a magic monetary wand and fix a breakdown in the key supply chains for oil and natural gas. All they can do is try to contain the inflationary fallout.

• Financial markets on Thursday were waking up to that possibility — and repricing global assets accordingly.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed the Pentagon would ask Congress for more money to wage war in Iran, though he said the reported $200 billion figure "could move."

Why it matters: A request on that scale would likely face stiff opposition from many Democrats and some Republicans, given the unpopularity of the war and the fact that it would be in addition to the Pentagon's existing $1 trillion budget.

If you ask energy historian Daniel Yergin, the Iran war "has been brewing for 47 years."

The big picture: Surging oil and gas prices tied to Middle East tensions will hang over a Houston gathering next week that is one of the global energy industry's biggest annual events.

Most Americans will likely soon be paying over $4 per gallon as the war in Iran drives one of the sharpest gas price surges in recent history.

The big picture: For many Americans, the most visible barometer of how the Iran war is going may be the price at the gas station down the street.

The Israeli military strike on Tehran's South Pars gas field facilities means the Iran war will likely extend into May, analysts said Wednesday.

The big picture: Oil prices jumped after Israeli forces' unprecedented strike on the gas field that Axios' Barak Ravid reported was conducted in coordination with and approved by the Trump administration. The global benchmark Brent crude was still hovering above $110 per barrel early Thursday.