Axios

U.S. diesel futures registered a muted response to Monday's tumble in global crude oil prices, with the suddenly politically salient price of the industrial fuel still up more than 100% from the end of 2025.

Why it matters: It shows that the destruction of global refining infrastructure, rather than shortages of crude oil, is the key to soaring diesel costs right now.

U.S. Army Pacific is preparing for a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2027 and beyond, aligning with what has for years been known as the Davidson window.

Why it matters: The Beijing-Taipei relationship is among the most closely watched in Washington — and could quickly devolve into a bloodbath.

"European rearmament" is catchy, convenient, clean.

• But the truth, across many capitals, and in the minds and hands of those building factories and weaponry, is far more complicated.

Why it matters: The continent is at a crossroads. Unpredictability gnaws at the relationship to the west with the U.S., and stray Russian missiles and drones arrive on its doorstep to the east.

• While an influx of defense spending is a solid start, many bottlenecks remain, entrenched by regulatory, political, geographical and cultural differences.

Cyberattacks are wreaking havoc on an unlikely target across Europe: supermarket refrigerators.

Why it matters: Hackers are turning everyday, internet-connected equipment into physical hazards, spoiling food and causing costly damage.

Lots of companies successfully price IPOs. Lots of other companies try to price IPOs, but cancel the process when it goes wobbly.

• OPay appears to be the only company to have successfully priced its IPO, and then thrown in the towel. Just hours before its shares were set to begin trading.

After another rough week for the AI trade, stocks seem to be bracing for more uncertainty in the days ahead.

Why it matters: While the AI trade has sputtered, the S&P 500 has managed to largely tread water thanks to strength from shares tied to the basics of the economy, like consumer staples, health care and utilities. (Soaring oil shares didn't hurt either.)

• But Tuesday's U.S. midterm elections and the potential reescalation of major fighting in the Iran war after the vote pose another potential hurdle to the market.

President Trump had a candid phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Saturday about the state of U.S. negotiations with Iran and how quickly to return to combat, according to one Israeli and one U.S. source.

Why it matters: The sources said Netanyahu is pressing Trump to strike Iran immediately after the midterm elections on Tuesday. But Trump, for now, wants to let negotiations play out — a strategy Netanyahu is concerned about.

A fight over whether the 2030 Census should stop asking about race and ethnicity has drawn more than 100,000 public comments, according to advocates tracking the federal docket.

Why it matters: The change could weaken the nation's most complete snapshot of race — data used in civil rights enforcement and redistricting — just as America grows more multiracial.

Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei told the country's top three military commanders that a renewed attack by the U.S. and Israel ״must be met with an immediate and effective response, without geographical limitations״ in order to achieve "maximum deterrence," according to a statement from his office.

Why it matters: This is the first publicly disclosed meeting between Khamenei and all the top commanders of Iran's armed forces since the war began. It comes as President Trump weighs major strikes on Iran after the midterm elections.

The world's biggest crypto heist is the latest feat by North Korean hackers who have spent years perfecting an arsenal of financial theft, social engineering and sophisticated cyberattacks.

Why it matters: The suspected North Korean hackers behind the $6.3 billion Binance theft appear to have combined familiar hacking tactics with extraordinary speed and automation — raising fresh questions about how AI could supercharge their already sophisticated operations.