Axios

Donald Trump is assembling a detailed catalog of excuses for rejecting the results of the 2024 election — if he loses.

Why it matters: The Trump-aligned efforts to overturn the 2020 election — both overtly and covertly, peacefully then violently — shocked the American public. No one should be surprised this time around.

Listen to Trump: The former president, who risks jail time and more criminal trials if he loses, has expanded his range of baseless attacks on U.S. voting procedures in recent weeks and months.

• Overseas voting: Trump falsely claimed last week that Democrats are exploiting an overseas ballot program for expats and military members in order to circumvent "any citizenship check or verification of identity."

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz warned Kamala Harris during the VP vetting process this summer that he was a bad debater.

• Now, ahead of his showdown Tuesday with Sen. JD Vance, Walz privately says he's as nervous as ever — and that he's worried about letting Harris down, CNN's Edward-Isaac Dovere reports.

Why it matters: It could be expectation management. But given this could be the last debate between any candidate on the two tickets, Walz appears to be feeling the unusually high stakes.

Between the lines: As governor, Walz had a tendency to speak at a fast clip and trip himself up in unscripted situations, resulting in muddled answers and occasional misstatements.

Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) warned donors last week that internal polling for her Senate campaign shows Harris is "underwater" in Michigan, according to a video clip obtained by our Stef Kight.

• "I'm not feeling my best right now about where we are on Kamala Harris in a place like Michigan," Slotkin said at a virtual fundraiser Wednesday with Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.).

Why it matters: Winning Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania is the vice president's simplest path to victory. If Trump sweeps the Sun Belt, he'd only need to pick off one of those Blue Wall states to win the election.

Between the lines: It's not unusual for campaigns to paint themselves as the polling underdog as a fundraising tactic.

Jimmy Carter, who's been in hospice care for more than a year, turns 100 on Tuesday.

• Festivities are planned in Carter's hometown of Plains, Ga., but his son says the former president cares only about one thing: Getting his absentee ballot and voting for Harris.

What they're saying: In a video statement shared with CBS News today, President Biden praised his longtime friend as a "moral force for our nation and the world."

• "Put simply, Mr. President, I admire you so darn much," Biden said.

Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) warned donors last week that internal polling for her Senate campaign shows Vice President Kamala Harris is "underwater" in Michigan, according to a video clip obtained by Axios.

Why it matters: Winning Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania is Harris' simplest path to victory. If former President Trump sweeps the Sun Belt, he'd only need to pick off one of those Blue Wall states to win the election.

Through public remarks, Truth Social screeds and more than 100 preemptive lawsuits, Donald Trump is assembling a detailed catalog of excuses for rejecting the results of the 2024 election — if he loses.

Why it matters: The Trump-aligned efforts to overturn the 2020 election — both overtly and covertly, peacefully then violently — shocked the American public. No one should be surprised this time around.

Tensions in the Middle East following the death of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah are spiraling and tipping toward what the Biden administration has feared for months: a broader regional war.

Here's what you may have missed when newsmakers hit the airwaves this Sunday, September 29.

The Israeli Air Force conducted an airstrike on the port of Hodeidah in Yemen on Sunday, two Israeli officials told Axios.

Why it matters: The Israeli officials said the strike was in retaliation for at least two attacks the Houthis launched against Tel Aviv over the past two weeks using long-range ballistic missiles.

President Biden applauded his "good friend," former President Jimmy Carter, in a message released Sunday — two days before the longest-living U.S. president will celebrate his 100th birthday.

The big picture: In 1976, then-Sen. Biden gave Carter his first endorsement from an elected official not from his home state of Georgia. In the decades since the two have maintained a close bond.

Former President Trump, in a self-described "dark speech," told a rally in Wisconsin yesterday that his opponent, Vice President Harris, is "mentally impaired" and "mentally disabled."

• "Joe Biden became mentally impaired," Trump said during a riff about immigration. "Kamala [mispronounces name] was born that way. [Laughter.] She was born that way. And if you think about it, only a mentally disabled person could have allowed this to happen to our country." (Video)

Why it matters: Even for Trump, it was weird, nasty and nonsensical — when he needed to be swaying "national security moms" and other undecideds, 38 days out from Election Day.

Vice President Harris is backing President Biden's diplomacy-focused strategy in the Middle East as the region moves closer to a wider war — a contrast to the more aggressive strategy Donald Trump is urging.

• "She is still the sitting vice president and stands by the administration's policies in the Middle East," a Harris aide said in a statement.

Why it matters: Harris will confront multiple hot wars around the globe if she wins in November, and has shown little daylight between herself and Biden on foreign affairs — except for an occasional nod toward those protesting Israel's conduct of the war in Gaza.