Axios

🎤 The first presidential debate of 2024 is set for Thursday, bringing former President Trump and President Biden to the same stage for the first time since their heated showdowns in 2020, Erin Doherty writes.

• It's the earliest presidential debate in modern history, coming before either candidate has officially been nominated by their parties.
• It also will be different from the 2020 debates: There won't be an audience aside from CNN moderators Jake Tapper and Dana Bash, and the candidates' microphones will be cut when it's not their turn to speak.

Sen. Joe Manchin (I-W.Va.) was presented last week with private polling that shows he could win the governor's race as an independent. But the 76-year-old is still leaning against facing voters one last time, according to people familiar with the matter.

Why it matters: Manchin formally left the Democratic Party last month, opening a path for a potential independent campaign for either governor or senator. Speculation has run rampant.

Democratic Senate candidates continue to run ahead of President Biden in battleground states, a polling spread that presents acute challenges — and opportunities — for both parties.

Why it matters: The mixed messages suggest there's a slice of the electorate that is frustrated with Biden but sticking with the party on the state level.

House Democrats are launching their opening salvo in what promises to be a week filled with abortion-related messaging by whacking five swing-district Republicans who praised the end of Roe v. Wade two years ago, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: In a campaign already deeply focused on abortion, Democrats plan to double down this week to mark the second anniversary of the Dobbs decision on Monday.

North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum said Sunday that Trump doesn't need to pick a vice presidential candidate to cater to certain voter blocs, as he's polling so well.

The big picture: Burgum is reportedly on the short-list of potential vice presidential picks for Trump. The former president said Saturday that he's made his pick and that person will attend Thursday's presidential debate.

A House Republican is introducing a resolution urging the Supreme Court to intervene in former President Trump's New York hush money case before the 2024 election.

Why it matters: The measure, which puts on paper what many House Republicans have been saying for weeks, is a non-binding alternative to the more actionable Trump defense some conservatives have pushed.

Guns will be allowed within walking distance of the Republican National Convention next month but not inside the event's inner perimeter, per a security plan the U.S. Secret Service shared at a press conference Friday.

Why it matters: More than 50,000 people are expected to attend the RNC, including the delegates who will formally nominate Donald Trump for president.

In a campaign full of slams and soundbites, Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) — who's No. 1 (usually) or No. 2 on the VP speculation list of most Trump insiders — has given an unusual tour of his brain that showcases his range.

Why it matters: Vance, 39 — originally famous for his "Hillbilly Elegy" bestseller — would help former President Trump energize rural voters in the vital states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. But Vance also speaks the language of college-educated suburban voters, who could tip the election.

Former President Trump is raising eyebrows with a series of unexpected policy proposals aimed at winning over targeted voter groups, with little downside.

Why it matters: These ideas are stark departures from the major themes of his campaign and the policies he pursued in office. But they just might help him win over some new voters.