Manchin a "no" on running for West Virginia governor — for now
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
Sen. Joe Manchin (I-W.V.), center, with staffers outside the U.S. Capitol on June 5. Photo: Kent Nishimura/Getty Images
Sen. Joe Manchin (I-W.Va.) was presented last week with private polling that shows he could win the governor's race as an independent. But the 76-year-old is still leaning against facing voters one last time, according to people familiar with the matter.
Why it matters: Manchin formally left the Democratic Party last month, opening a path for a potential independent campaign for either governor or senator. Speculation has run rampant.
- But the internal polling, which gave him a 1-point lead over Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) in a possible rematch of the 2018 Senate race, also indicated that Manchin had high negative ratings.
- Any potential campaign, while short, would be nasty — with victory far from assured.
Driving the news: Manchin has until Aug. 1 to make a final decision on whether to mount an unaffiliated campaign for either the Senate or the governor's mansion.
- On Thursday, he is scheduled to appear at a fundraiser with Democratic gubernatorial candidate Stephen Williams, the mayor of Huntington, the state's second biggest city.
- Williams has raised a paltry $31,000. Manchin has $8.4 million in his Senate campaign account, which he could use for a governor's race.
- Morrisey has raised $3.6 million and had $600,000 cash on hand at the beginning of May.
Between the lines: With Manchin, nothing is final until the deadline passes.
- Throughout President Biden's first two years, he killed and then revived the president's Build Back Better agenda, before surprising Washington by announcing his support for the Inflation Reduction Act.
- For most of the fall, he toyed with an independent bid for president before concluding he didn't have a path to victory.
State of play: Manchin's decision not to run for re-election to the Senate dashed Democrats' hopes that they could hold onto the seat in deep-red West Virginia one more time.
- Gov. Jim Justice is the GOP nominee in a state Trump won by 39 points in 2020, leading many Democrats to conclude that they're starting the 2024 cycle having all but lost a Senate seat.
- Manchin beat Morrisey in 2018, defying political gravity by winning the Senate seat in a mid-term election.
- Democratic leaders liked the idea of a Manchin 2024 bid, in part because it would force Republicans to spend money to win the seat.
- West Virginia's GOP is divided after a contentious primary season in which Morrisey beat out Moore Capito in the gubernatorial primary. Capito's mother, Republican Shelley Moore Capito, is the state's other U.S. senator.
