President Trump has told confidants he'll declare victory on Tuesday night if it looks like he's "ahead," according to three sources familiar with his private comments. That's even if the Electoral College outcome still hinges on large numbers of uncounted votes in key states like Pennsylvania.
The latest: Speaking to reporters on Sunday evening, Trump denied that he would declare victory prematurely, before adding, "I think it's a terrible thing when ballots can be collected after an election. I think it's a terrible thing when states are allowed to tabulate ballots for a long period of time after the election is over."
Top lawmakers on the Senate Intelligence Committee tell Axios their biggest fear in the immediate days after Tuesday's election is a "perception hack" that throws the country into a constitutional crisis.
Why it matters: Networks of disinformation, both foreign and domestic, will have a long runway to undermine the integrity of our elections. Those aims could potentially be boosted if President Trump joins in on questioning the credibility of the system.
Joe Biden’s team is considering an informal ban on naming Democratic U.S. senators to the Cabinet if he wins — which would effectively block Elizabeth Warren for Treasury or Bernie Sanders for Labor — people familiar with the discussions tell Axios.
The big picture: Biden, if he wins, is bracing for bruising legislative battles on day one, starting with the next phase of coronavirus relief. Many advisers don’t think he can afford to lose a single vote in the Senate if Democrats hold a slim majority.
If Democrats win the Senate, they may test the limits of “budget reconciliation” with a blitz to pass as much as possible with 50 votes, pending a decision on whether to finally abolish the filibuster and its 60-vote requirement.
The big picture: Biden, if he's elected, will front-load his agenda with coronavirus stimulus and attempt several other big-ticket items in his first year, aware that his political capital will start to diminish as soon as he takes office.
President Trump's favorite coronavirus adviser Scott Atlas apologized on Twitter for appearing Saturday on Russia’s state-controlled RT network, where he insisted that the U.S. is turning the corner on the pandemic and that lockdowns are actually “killing people.”
Why it matters: RT, formerly known as Russia Today, is a Russian state-owned media outlet registered under the Foreign Agents Registration Act. This means that all of its content is labeled as propaganda attempting to influence U.S. public opinion, policy and laws.
Former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb, who served under President Trump, said on "Face the Nation" Sunday that his "view is the inflection point will be Thanksgiving" on the coronavirus as the virus has surged through out the country.
Why it matters: President Trump insists that the country is turning the corner in response to the pandemic, yet the number of cases keeps rising nationwide.
Trump campaign senior adviser Jason Miller falsely claimed on Sunday that Democrats would try to "steal" electoral votes after election night if President Trump appears to be ahead, signaling a coming legal fight over mail-in ballots that are counted after Nov. 3.
Reality check: Electoral College votes are not awarded until December, and no state ever reports its final count on election night — despite Trump's insistence that the election should end on Nov. 3 and that the courts should not allow ballots to be counted in the days following.
Pennsylvania Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar reminded viewers on NBC's "Meet the Press" that "elections have never been called on election night," because service members overseas have until a week after Election Day to cast ballots in certain states.
The state of play: Boockvar said the state's election results will likely take longer to come in than usual, after anchor Chuck Todd noted that some counties in Pennsylvania will not begin counting mail-in ballots until the Wednesday after Election Day.
Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) believes that the election results "should not be dealt with through the court system," something that the Trump campaign has signaled could happen if Florida is too close to call on election night.
Why it matters: In an interview on CNN's "State of the Union," host Jake Tapper questioned the senator whether the Republican strategy was to call into question the validity of remaining mail-in ballots. Florida is crucial for Trump's re-election and, earlier this month, Democrats have steadily outpaced Republicans in vote-by-mail ballots.
The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette endorsed President Trump in an editorial piece published late on Saturday, writing that he "has put America first, just as he said he would."
Why it matters: The Post-Gazette, which endorsed former President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, has not supported a Republican presidential nominee since 1972. The paper is also based in a swing state that is crucial to Trump's victory.
Joe Biden will become "an underdog" if he fails to win Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver said on ABC's "This Week" Sunday.
Why it matters: Trump won the battleground by less than a point in 2016, as he narrowly swept swing states in the Rust Belt to secure victory in the Electoral College. FiveThirtyEight's average of polls currently shows Biden with a 5% lead in Pennsylvania.
President Trump has presided over a stock market surge since taking office in 2017, but he's been outpaced by three of his four predecessors.
By the numbers: The S&P 500 grew by 44.5% since Trump's inauguration through the end of October 2020. This comes up short of former President Obama's 66.1% through the comparable time period, but well above the -15.8% for former President George W. Bush.
Joe Biden has a lead over President Trump in Florida, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to the last New York Times/Siena College poll before Tuesday's election.
Why it matters: Biden's apparent lead in a number of states, largely supported by voters who did not turn out in 2016, "appears to put him in a stronger position heading into Election Day than any presidential candidate since at least 2008," the Times' Alex Burns and Jonathan Martin write.
We all need to be clear-eyed about the social and political volatility heading into Election Day: The chances of sporadic violence, significant unrest or voting issues are quite high, according to basically every federal and state official monitoring voting and its aftermath in 2020.
But all of us — Democrats, Republicans, independents alike — can do our part to minimize the drama and darker scenarios.
NIAID director Anthony Fauci praised the Biden campaign's coronavirus stance, criticized White House adviser Scott Atlas and offered a bleak assessment of the U.S. pandemic response in an interview with the Washington Post, published Saturday.
Why it matters: Fauci's comments are perhaps his most frank yet and come as COVID-19 cases surge across the U.S. The White House called Fauci's remarks three days out from the election "unacceptable." Atlas publicly responded to his fellow coronavirus task force member in a tweet late Saturday.
The final "Saturday Night Live" cold open before the election appeared to pitch for Joe Biden, as Jim Carrey noted while telling a Halloween story "for some Trump voters, it’s the only time they'll wear a mask."
Details: Carrey's Biden grabbed a copy of Donal Trump Jr.'s book "Triggered," but said it was "a little too scary" so read a parody of Edgar Allen Poe's "The Raven." Kate McKinnon as Hillary Clinton and Mikey Day as FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver appeared as a reminder that Democrats "lost before." Maya Rudolph as Biden's running mate Sen. Kamal Harris showed up to say, "Use your voice and use your vote." Carrey’s Biden quipped, "In this daylight savings hour, let's gain an hour and lose a president."
President Trump posted video Saturday night of his supporters surrounding a Biden-Harris campaign bus with the comment, "I LOVE TEXAS!" in a tweet Democrats called "reckless."
Why it matters: Democratic officials and witnesses said the pro-Trump vehicles attempted to "force" the Biden-Harris campaign bus "off the road" in the incident on Friday, per the New York Times.
Officers in North Carolina used pepper spray on protesters and arrested eight people at a get-out-the-vote rally at Alamance County’s courthouse Saturday during the final day of early voting, the City of Graham Police Department confirmed.
Driving the news: The peaceful "I Am Change" march to the polls was organized by Rev. Greg Drumwright, from the Citadel Church in Greensboro, N.C., and included a minute's silence for George Floyd. Melanie Mitchell told the News & Observer her daughters, age 5 and 11, were among those pepper-sprayed by police soon after.
The Biden campaign is pursuing highly tailored outreach to Asian American Pacific Islander (AAPI) groups, as Democrats try to turn longtime Republican states like Texas and Georgia blue.
Why it matters: Asian Americans are the fastest-growing demographic group in the country, according to Pew Research Center, and they could be key in swing states where a 1% or 2% lead can determine a race.
