Sign up for our daily briefing
Make your busy days simpler with Axios AM/PM. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.
Stay on top of the latest market trends
Subscribe to Axios Markets for the latest market trends and economic insights. Sign up for free.
Sports news worthy of your time
Binge on the stats and stories that drive the sports world with Axios Sports. Sign up for free.
Tech news worthy of your time
Get our smart take on technology from the Valley and D.C. with Axios Login. Sign up for free.
Get the inside stories
Get an insider's guide to the new White House with Axios Sneak Peek. Sign up for free.
Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday
Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday
Want a daily digest of the top Denver news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver
Want a daily digest of the top Des Moines news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines
Want a daily digest of the top Twin Cities news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities
Want a daily digest of the top Tampa Bay news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa Bay
Want a daily digest of the top Charlotte news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte
Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
Democrats have outvoted Republicans in Florida in vote-by-mail ballots by a margin of over 400,000 as of 11am on Wednesday, according to state election data.
Why it matters: This is the first time Democrats have led over Republicans during this stage of an election, though states are expecting an unprecedented number of mail-in ballots due to the pandemic. Typically, Republicans are ahead by a slight margin in absentee ballot returns, according to Politico.
Yes, but: Republican officials say they are confident they can catch up by Election Day.
- “Voting in Florida is a marathon. And what you’re seeing is a bit of a sprint from the Democrats,” the director of Trump's campaign in Florida, Susie Wiles, told Politico.
- "But we have far more high-propensity voters on our side. That should be noted in all the hype about the Democrats’ lead. We’re not finished. We’re turning our sights to early in-person voting and to Election Day.”
The big picture: President Trump has publicly attacked mail-in-voting, calling it fraudulent and baselessly claiming the election will be "rigged" because states that don't usually conduct vote-by-mail elections have adopted new pandemic-era systems.
- In Florida, however, Trump has encouraged his supporters to vote by mail because "they’ve been doing this over many years, and they’ve made it really terrific."
- House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy told Axios that Republicans "could lose" as a result of Trump's war on mail-in voting, saying that he's spent hours telling the president that this preoccupation will hurt his own re-election chances.
The bottom line: Florida, which Trump won in 2016 but looks to be a competitive race in 2020, is crucial to his re-election chances. Since 1996, every presidential candidate that has won Florida has won the election.