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FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver said on ABC's "This Week" Sunday that his forecast for the 2020 election finds that President Trump currently has a 27% chance of defeating Joe Biden.

The big picture: Biden has an 8.7-point lead on President Trump in FiveThirtyEight's average of national polls. The president has seen his poll numbers tank since the coronavirus pandemic began, and as Americans took to the streets to protest the death of George Floyd in cities around the country.

The state of play: Silver's same model gave Trump a 29% chance on Election Day 2016 — higher than most forecasters at the time.

  • "This is not quite the same situation as 2016, when the polls were actually pretty close," Silver said. "This year, Trump is not very close to Joe Biden. Instead the issue is that he still has a lot of time to catch up."
  • The model gives a 10% chance of Trump again winning the Electoral College but not the popular vote — like what happened in 2016.

Yes, but: Silver said "uncertainties related to COVID-19," like what the economy will look like in November, make the election especially unpredictable.

  • "It's simply too soon for a model or for anybody else to be all that confident about what is going to happen," Silver said.

Silver's bottom line: "Yes, Trump definitely still has a shot at re-election."

Go deeper

Wisconsin GOP says hackers stole $2.3 million from account meant to help Trump

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

$2.3 million was recently stolen from a Wisconsin GOP account meant to aid President Trump's re-election campaign, Republican Party chairman Andrew Hitt told the AP on Thursday.

The big picture: Former Vice President Joe Biden is polling ahead in Wisconsin, which is a vital battle ground state in November's election. Although Trump won Wisconsin in 2016, Biden is currently favored to win the state in FiveThirtyEight's latest forecast.

Oct 29, 2020 - Politics & Policy

Biden's China plan: Bring allies

Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Joe Biden is planning to confront China across the globe, embracing some of President Trump's goals but rejecting his means.

The big picture: By starting a trade war with China, Trump has fundamentally altered the U.S.- China relationship — and forced both Republicans and Democrats to accept a more confrontational approach towards Beijing.

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Coronavirus cases and hospitalizations are surging, particularly in areas that had been largely spared this spring. One big question now is whether hospitals are better prepared for this new wave, including if they'll be able to continue providing elective services.

Axios Re:Cap digs into what hospitals have, and what they still need, with Lloyd Dean, CEO of CommonSpirit Health, one of America's largest operators of hospitals and health clinics.