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FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver said on ABC's "This Week" Sunday that his forecast for the 2020 election finds that President Trump currently has a 27% chance of defeating Joe Biden.

The big picture: Biden has an 8.7-point lead on President Trump in FiveThirtyEight's average of national polls. The president has seen his poll numbers tank since the coronavirus pandemic began, and as Americans took to the streets to protest the death of George Floyd in cities around the country.

The state of play: Silver's same model gave Trump a 29% chance on Election Day 2016 — higher than most forecasters at the time.

  • "This is not quite the same situation as 2016, when the polls were actually pretty close," Silver said. "This year, Trump is not very close to Joe Biden. Instead the issue is that he still has a lot of time to catch up."
  • The model gives a 10% chance of Trump again winning the Electoral College but not the popular vote — like what happened in 2016.

Yes, but: Silver said "uncertainties related to COVID-19," like what the economy will look like in November, make the election especially unpredictable.

  • "It's simply too soon for a model or for anybody else to be all that confident about what is going to happen," Silver said.

Silver's bottom line: "Yes, Trump definitely still has a shot at re-election."

Go deeper

Scoop: Blackstone CEO Stephen Schwarzman says Trump lost

Trump with Schwarzman in 2017. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

It's over. That's what Blackstone chairman, CEO and co-founder Steve Schwarzman — one of President Trump's most loyal allies — and other top Republicans are signaling to the defeated president, 16 days after Joe Biden clinched the win.

Why it matters: It’s all theatrics now. Even if Trump doesn't move on fast, you can. It is safe to ignore the fearful Republicans who insist the process is legit and plausible, because they tell us privately it is not. 

Longtime diplomat says Trump conspiracies hurt U.S. more than Russia, China

Burns during Senate testimony in 2015. Photo: Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call

A longtime diplomat and Joe Biden adviser tells Axios that the United States has lost international credibility as President Trump spreads conspiracies while challenging his losing election results.

Why it matters: Nicholas Burns, a Harvard professor who previously served presidents from both political parties as a former ambassador and undersecretary of state, says the president's baseless challenges have undercut the U.S. as a beacon of democracy and critical voice against governmental overreach in other nations.

GOP Sen. Rob Portman says Biden transition funds should be released

Photo: Graeme Jennings/Pool/AFP via Getty Images

Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) wrote in an op-ed for the Cincinnati Enquirer that while he supports legal checks on the 2020 presidential election, the General Services Administration should provide the funds and infrastructure for a Biden transition to begin.

Why it matters: Portman was a co-chair of Trump's re-election campaign in Ohio and rarely steps out of line with party leadership. He wrote in the op-ed that "there is no evidence as of now of any widespread fraud or irregularities that would change the result in any state."