The U.S. economy started 2026 in a state of excellent balance: strong growth, a solid job market and subdued inflation. Just don't look too closely.
The big picture: The key headline numbers in recent days — on jobs and inflation— appear as good as they have been in some time. Still, there are also warnings in the data that the story is not quite as rosy as headline numbers might suggest.
It's the Goldilocks economy — neither too hot nor too cold, so long as you don't focus on the details.
The four major hyperscalers have lost a combined $1 trillion in market cap following their latest quarter earnings releases.
The big picture: Investors are rotating out of tech as rising AI spend is fueling fears of an overbuild.
Editor's note: This story was corrected to reflect the combined loss of $1 trillion in market cap was from their latest quarter earnings (not fourth quarter earnings).
Inflation has fallen back to near where it stood before the "Liberation Day" surge. Yet the sour mood that helped define the spike lingers in checkout lines and household budgets across the country.
Why it matters: This highlights an important disconnect in the key inflation indicators. Friday's big Consumer Price Index cooldown is a relief for financial markets and Federal Reserve officials.
Yet a slowdown in prices in the aggregate is likely little comfort to consumers, who are frustrated that high prices have persisted over the last five years and are still creeping higher.
New valuation datafrom PitchBook suggests that more than one-quarter of VC-backed "unicorns" have lost their horns, even if still being marked at more than $1 billion by their venture capitalists.
Why it matters: Most limited partners aren't able to access top-decile firms. If they conclude that there are better investments elsewhere — such as passive indexes without high fees or illiquidity risk — that's where they'll go.
Little by little, week after week, a subtle but significant shift is unfolding in American politics: Institutions and even a small but growing number of Republicans are standing up to President Trump.
Why it matters: This is hardly COVID, where everyone seemed to resist everything — or even a return to Normal Times, when CEOs and Republicans said something when they saw something alarming.
Here is a love note from the global commodities market: Roses are red, violets are blue; cocoa prices are still crashing, but no chocolate bargains for you.
Why it matters: Few commodities have plummeted in price more than cocoa this year. The plunge extends a months-long drop from record high prices, a fall that is wreaking havoc on big cocoa exporters in West Africa.
Congress is sliding toward a "no-pressure" shutdown, with both parties content to claim political wins as a department backfilled with billions of dollars experiences a funding lapse.
Why it matters: The lack of urgency to try to prevent the Department of Homeland Security shutdown at day's end Friday underscores how routine funding interruptions have become.
It also reveals the lowered political stakes both sides see in allowing the latest one to take hold.
A partial government shutdown is looming as a Department of Homeland Security congressional funding fight over Immigration and Customs Enforcement reforms shows no signs of abating by the Friday night deadline.
The big picture: Democratic leaders are demanding reforms to ICE, but the agency is set to be among the least affected by a potential DHS partial shutdown that would disrupt air travel, disaster response and cyber monitoring.
