Behind the Curtain: The resistance revitalized

The big red alert: This is an astonishing mood swing for a party seen as historically unpopular and ineffective heading into a small set of various elections scattered across the country.

• The Democrats' internal divisions persist. And the absence of a strong leader in Congress or nationally will continue to bedevil them. But never underestimate the power of hope — and a few wins after lots of losses — in pulling a party out of a deep slumber.
• The national landscape, brutal in that Democrats control nothing in Washington, suddenly looks brighter. They proved they can win with a Democratic socialist (New York), moderates (New Jersey and Virginia) and fiery activists (California). They dialed up bigger-than-expected margins, and seem to have reset politics for the moment.
• Ironically, that lack of power was a source of power Tuesday for Democrats, who've been pushed around so much that it angered their voters. That anger at Trump, perhaps more than hope, drove turnout.

If you're a donor or activist or member of Congress, you woke up in a different world — one that felt so distant a day earlier. Think about the echo effect:

• Students and activists will feel more emboldened to protest.
• Universities, law firms and mayors thinking about capitulating to Trump will suddenly feel like it's a fight worth picking.
• 2028 hopefuls will look to Gavin Newsom's redistricting play and see wisdom in frontally attacking Trump and conventional norms. "Prop 50 will be seen as the most important event of the 2026 election cycle," GOP pollster Frank Luntz told us.

Behind the scenes: Several people close to Trump, who retain some emotional detachment, had been telling us privately that warning signs are everywhere. They argue that Trump projects supreme confidence, and genuinely feels it — but that the polls show a clear, consistent backlash against almost everything he's doing.

• A clear majority opposes his deportation policies, bellicose tone, domestic troop deployments, tariffs and overall presidency. This shows up in almost every poll, every time.

Trump has never been this far underwater on the economy, which used to be a strength of the face of "The Apprentice" franchise.

• Trump devours polling and has been reading the numbers, looking at the trendlines and growing concerned about the cost of food, advisers tell Axios' Marc Caputo.
• "Sometimes, it's good to touch the hot stove," an adviser said, arguing that Republicans across the board need to sharpen their senses and realize Democrats can burn them in a year.

Friction point: In an echo of President Biden's time, topline economic indicators — the stock market and unemployment rate — look good. But people don't feel that way.

• "The president doesn't want to sound like Biden, telling people everything is great," one adviser told Caputo. "He's not doing the Trump version of Bidenomics. So he's picking his shots."
• Some of Trump's solutions or rhetoric about affordability problems, however, have downside risks. His plan to import more Argentine beef, for instance, upset U.S. cattle ranchers. And his criticism of electricity prices in New Jersey highlighted problems with his energy policy.

Some context: The laws of reality still apply. This is a 50-50 nation, where power swings wildly back and forth between the parties because neither is beloved or trusted. Every election is a change election — which is why the last five presidents have all enjoyed at least two years of full control of the White House and Congress, only to lose it quickly.

• And yet ... Trump — and President Obama before him and President George W. Bush before him — convince themselves they've finally cracked the code of creating something more dominant and durable. Each time, it's fantasy and folly interrupted by the reality of elections.
• It's highly possible these results signal nothing more than one good night for several good candidates. But Democrats were searching, scrambling, praying for something, anything, to put a spring back in their step. Well, they got it — and will surely use it because they sorely needed it.
• House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York said Republicans have "lost any temporary progress that they've made with working-class Americans — gone. Any progress that they've made with the Hispanic community — gone. Any progress that they've made with younger Americans — gone."

Trump and Vice President Vance sounded defensive after their blue thumping:

• In a meeting with Senate Republicans described by participants as tense and awkward, Trump blamed the shutdown for the party's poor performance. He demanded they kill the filibuster, an idea Senate Republicans instantly and publicly rejected.
• Vance took to X to say it's "idiotic to overreact to a couple of elections in blue states," then called for a greater emphasis on domestic economic topics and party unity. But Trump is the one obsessing about foreign policy, including bombing boats in Venezuela and bailing out Argentina.

Later, at the American Business Forum in Miami, Trump boasted about the improving economy and the uptick in the number of U.S.-born citizens working today.

• "I tell Republicans that if you want to win elections, you've got to talk about these facts," he said.

The bottom line: This is easily the biggest blow to Trump and Republicans since taking power. Democrats, for the first time in a long time, feel hopeful, ascendant — and like winners.

• Go deeper ... "Behind the Curtain: Inside post-Kirk MAGA's reality."