Axios

President Trump said on Monday that he has "sort of made a decision" about selling long-range Tomahawk missiles to NATO countries in order for them to be supplied to Ukraine.

Why it matters: Ukraine claims the Tomahawks would give it the ability to hit military targets deep inside Russia and help in deterring Russian leader Vladimir Putin and getting him to the negotiating table on better terms.

The S&P 500 could rally to 7,750 by the end of next year —a 15% gain from current levels — and there's a 30% chance that the benchmark stock index could even reach 9,000 by then, says Evercore ISI, a Wall Street research firm.

Why it matters: Wall Street thinks the AI-driven bull market has plenty of upside ahead before a potential pop sends asset prices tumbling.

Holiday shopping is starting early. Target's Circle Week is live and Amazon's Prime Big Deal Days and Walmart's Deals event launch Tuesday — as tariffs and economic jitters spark an October shopping sprint.

Why it matters: The early blitz shows how retail giants are front-loading deals to reach cautious consumers.

There's a new Midas in the stock market, and its name is OpenAI.

Why it matters: The company is becoming a powerful kingmaker in the AI economy as investors heap rewards onto anyone who partners with the ChatGPT creator.

Arby's is turning steak into a finger food with its nationwide debut of Steak Nuggets — "hand-cut, bite-sized morsels of steak."

Dig in: The Atlanta-based chain known for "the meats" is attempting to carve out a new niche in the chicken-nugget-and-tender dominated world of quick bites.

President Trump said on Monday that trucks imported into the U.S. would be hit with a 25% tariff rate starting on Nov. 1.

Why it matters: The previously telegraphed tariffs are the latest blow to the global automakers, whose trucks had previously skirted sector-wide tariffs.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has appointed Frank Bisignano, who runs the Social Security Administration, to also head up the Internal Revenue Service as its first-ever chief executive officer.

Why it matters: It's an unprecedented move that comes at a time of immense challenge for the two agencies — both reeling from DOGE cuts — that are critical to Americans' lives.

Massive single-day stock pops are becoming a regular occurrence for AI stocks. On Monday, AMD soared nearly 40% off a multibillion-dollar AI data center partnership with OpenAI, mirroring gains seen after Oracle's earnings.

Why it matters: These record one-day rallies are looking frothy as investors continue worrying about an approaching AI bubble.

The fiscal and political mess roiling France just got messier: Its fourth prime minister in the past year resigned Monday morning.

Why it matters: The situation plaguing Europe's second-largest economy is seen as a global warning of the political and economic chaos that can ensue in a new era that demands fiscal restraint.

The U.S. labor market looks to be in a precarious balance, in solid shape for the moment but vulnerable to a rapid worsening.

The big picture: That's the implication of the chart above, which captures the relationship between the rate of job openings and unemployment. Based on this historical experience, if employers were to pull back on the number of job postings even slightly, it would coincide with a rapid rise in the jobless rate.

• It helps explain why the Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates even as inflation is elevated and financial markets are booming.

State of play: The relationship between vacancies and unemployment is known as the Beveridge Curve, developed by British economist William Beveridge in the 1940s.

• In 21st century America, the Beveridge Curve has displayed a notable nonlinearity, a kink in the curve. It implies that the labor market could shift relatively quickly from one state to another.

Zoom in: The visual above tells the story. Each dot represents a single month since the year 2000. (The pandemic period is excluded because it distorted economic data so severely.)

• On the left side, the line is mostly vertical. Employers were able to significantly reduce their number of job postings from 2022 to 2024 without generating much of a rise in the unemployment rate.
• But on the right side, the line becomes mostly horizontal. In the horizontal part of the curve, even small cutbacks in job openings coincide with dramatic rises in joblessness.
• In August, both the unemployment rate and the job openings rate stood at 4.3%. As it happens, that's right at the kink in the curve — the spot where the vertical portion gives way to the horizontal portion.

Between the lines: Employers have been cutting back on job postings since the openings rate peaked more than three years ago, with only modest pain for workers. Any further cutbacks in job openings are more likely to hurt.

• The Fed's rate-cutting is a matter of risk management — aiming to lower the odds that unemployment will spike higher.

What they're saying: "By these measures that have been predictive in the past, we look to be fairly close to ending up with some of those nonlinear dynamics," SGH Macro Advisors chief U.S. economist Tim Duy tells Axios.

• "That chart tells you that you could be at this inflection point where if you don't get a floor under the labor market, you could have a big rise in unemployment," he says.

Of note: August is the most recent job openings data available, but private sector sources point to a drop since then. As of Sept. 26, the Indeed Job Postings Index was down 2.5% from a month earlier.

The bottom line: Yes, historical patterns are only that. But if employers cut back on hiring intentions even a little, the benign job market of the last few years could change quickly.

China's low-emissions tech exports hit fresh records in August on the strength of surging EV and battery shipments, data from the climate think tank Ember shows.

Why it matters: It's the latest sign of what some analysts call emerging divides between "electro-states" and "petro-states" — with White House policy solidifying U.S. placement in the latter camp.

The Supreme Court's new term opens Monday and is poised to deliver conservatives a string of victories.

The big picture: The justices have loaded up their docket with issues that largely unite the right. Even more referendums on key parts of President Trump's agenda will almost certainly find their way to the high court's docket.

U.S. shoppers will spend $253.4 billion online this holiday season, up 5.3% year-over-year, according to Adobe's new forecast out Monday.

Why it matters: Tariffs and inflation are squeezing budgets, but shoppers will lean on discounts, flexible payments and AI-powered tools to stretch their dollars, Adobe said.

After a year of mixed economic signals and policy uncertainty, Wall Street strategists are growing more optimistic the economy will rev up in 2026.

Why it matters: Easier credit and less policy uncertainty are going to create favorable conditions for the economy next year, according to strategists and analysts, even if labor market data is painting a murky picture for growth.

Retail investors are shifting away from the Magnificent 7 stocks in favor of riskier AI plays, according to Charles Schwab's Trading Activity Index known as the STAX, which tracks the retail trading activity of millions of customers.

Why it matters: The Mag 7 moment is nowhere near over, but that basket of seven Big Tech stocks may be losing its popularity among retail investors.