Axios

Call it Prime Day, or Black Friday in July, but this week is expected to mark a major moment for summer spending.

Why it matters: Billions of dollars are projected to be spent at Amazon and other retailers that are running competing sales.

Global trade rules are about as hazy now as in early April, when the White House touted "90 deals in 90 days" that would ease the uncertainty.

Why it matters: Since the April 9 trade war de-escalation, businesses have been waiting for clarity on where tariffs will settle so they can adapt their supply chains and pricing accordingly.

• It now appears as if the July 9 deadline for those deals will pass with little certainty.
• For business leaders, the fear is that the trade wars started when Donald Trump took office don't have a firm end date, a worry that grows with each shifting deadline.

What they're saying: "Whatever deals there are going to be, let's just ink it and move on," says Sue Spence, the chair of the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing business survey committee.

• "But even if that happens, there is such a disbelief it will stick," says Spence, who surveys manufacturers each month to gauge the industry's health.

What's new: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC early Monday that trade announcements were coming in the next 48 hours.

• Bessent said "we've had a lot of people change their tune in terms of negotiations" since Trump threatened that countries could revert back to the tariffs outlined on Liberation Day.
• "My mailbox was full last night with a lot of new offers, a lot of new proposals," he said.

Yes, but: Bessent also pointed to August 1 as the next date to watch, when countries that have not landed deals will see tariff rates revert back to those announced in early April.

• Trump posted on Truth Social last night that "UNITED STATES TARIFF letters and/or Deals with various Countries from around the World" will be delivered starting at noon Monday.

What to watch: Today sets off the latest murky timeline that business leaders will struggle to understand.

• The list of dates already includes July 21, when the U.S. and Canada are supposed to notch a deal. There is also Aug. 12, when the 90-day trade truce with China expires.
• The Trump administration has announced trade frameworks with the U.K. and Vietnam, though agreements with other major trading partners — Japan and Mexico, for instance — look uncertain.
• The European Commission's Ursula von der Leyen "had a good exchange" with Trump last night, the bloc said. It is a hint that talks might be moving in the right direction ahead of Wednesday, when tariffs on European goods are threatened to jump to 50%.

Tariff threats ahead

The prospect of substantially higher import taxes remains, even if there are a wave of tariff deals announced in the days ahead.

• The Commerce Department is considering the potential for tariffs on individual sectors — including chips, pharmaceuticals and more — under its trade authorities, Section 232 and Section 301.
• Trump last night threatened to impose additional tariffs on the "BRICS" (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), ahead of their annual gathering in South America.

The big picture: "Historically, fully fledged trade deals take, on average, three years to conclude, not three months," Morgan Stanley economists wrote in a note this morning.

• "Our best guess is that any near-term announcements will not be comprehensive and permanent, and will likely be some kind of blanket agreement," they add.
• "Even if we get a range of agreements on July 8/9, because of all the uncertainty noted above, the next question will obviously be, for how long is this agreement valid?"

The intrigue: Businesses are yearning for some clarity — a sense that whatever the new tariff regime may look like, it will remain relatively stable.

• Asked what certainty in this new era might look like, ISM's Spence says: "Enough time needs to go by with no other changes."
• "If I'm the CFO of a company, and there is a deal in place with China and Europe, and three months go by and there hasn't been a big change, relations seem good with no new threats — then maybe I am going to be comfortable enough to move forward with decisions I have delayed," Spence says.

Starbucks is giving its classic Frappuccino a modern twist for the blended beverage's 30th anniversary.

Why it matters: The Seattle-based coffee giant is trying to return to its roots by simplifying its menu and reestablishing its cafes as community coffeehouses under the "Back to Starbucks" plan.

America's babies are becoming investors, each to receive $1,000 seed accounts via the reconciliation bill signed last week by President Trump.

Why it matters: This could expand financial flexibility and literacy for future generations, given the power of compound interest, albeit on the dime of current taxpayers.

Private equity firm TPG completed its $7.6 billion purchase of the 70% stake it didn't already hold in DirecTV from AT&T.

Why it matters: AT&T is officially out of the media game, focused instead on connectivity.

I'm Madison Mills, the new senior markets reporter here at Axios, where I'm covering everything from why stocks refuse to go down to why investors are ignoring tariff risks.

The big picture: I'll be writing your daily Markets newsletter, getting you caught up on everything you need to know about what's driving financial markets.

Zoom in: I'm obsessed with finance and turned this into a career as an anchor and a reporter for Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, and now, Axios.

• I talk markets on social media, too, and hope you'll find me there to continue the conversation.

The bottom line: I'd love to hear your questions, feedback or tips, so feel free to email me at [email protected] or just reply to the newsletter when it hits your inbox. Can't wait to nerd out on markets together.

Investors just got three extra weeks to decide if they need to care about tariffs again.

• But Wall Street's tariff optimism could be tested if President Trump picks tougher trade negotiation tactics over markets in the month ahead.

Why it matters: How tariff negotiations unfold amid the new extension could either confirm the TACO trade, or signal that high levies are a risk investors need to account for again, which could threaten the rally that's driven stocks to fresh all-time highs.

Tesla shares fell sharply again Monday, as Elon Musk's split with the Trump administration deepened over his threats to launch a new political party.

Why it matters: Musk is personally out nearly $20 billion since breaking with President Trump last month, and his investors are out more than $100 billion on top of that.

The White House promised a summer of tariff clarity. Now it looks like it might be another season of confusion.

Why it matters: The rules of global trade in the Trump era are just as hazy now as they were in early April, when the White House suggested "90 deals in 90 days" that would ease the uncertainty.

"Choppy" is the new buzzword for investors who view "uncertainty" as a rearview problem.

Why it matters: Consensus is building around a bullish path to the year-end, but that bullishness has an asterisk: Investors should expect headline-driven volatility to be a feature, not a bug, for this bull market.

Millions of Americans got a confusing email from the Social Security Administration over the weekend, celebrating the passage of the "big, beautiful bill."

Why it matters: It's unusual for the agency to blast an overtly political message to its massive email list, which includes retirees and those who've signed up at their website.

President Trump said Sunday night any country "aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS" will be charged "an ADDITIONAL 10% Tariff" and there'll be "no exceptions to this policy."

Why it matters: While Trump didn't elaborate further, BRICS issued a statement hours earlier saying the 11 nations-strong bloc that includes Brazil, Russia, India and China had "serious concerns about the rise of unilateral tariff and non-tariff measures which distort trade," which it said was "inconsistent with" World Trade Organization rules.

The Trump administration pushed back Sunday on criticism of the National Weather Service's initial forecasting and its staffing levels ahead of Central Texas' catastrophic flooding.

The big picture: The storm that's killed at least 80 people has brought renewed scrutiny to federal cuts at NOAA's NWS after it emerged that two Texas NWS offices were missing key staff at the time — including San Antonio, where a veteran warning coordination meteorologist has taken an early retirement buyout in April.