The next phase of tariff limbo is just starting
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Illustration: Maura Losch/Axios
The White House promised a summer of tariff clarity. Now it looks like it might be another season of confusion.
Why it matters: The rules of global trade in the Trump era are just as hazy now as they were in early April, when the White House suggested "90 deals in 90 days" that would ease the uncertainty.
The big picture: The fear among business leaders is the trade wars started when Trump took office don't have a firm end date — a worry that grows with each shifting deadline.
- "Whatever deals there are going to be, let's just ink it and move on," Sue Spence, the chair of the Institute of Supply Management's manufacturing business survey committee, tells Axios.
- "But even if that happens, there is such a disbelief it will stick," says Spence, who surveys manufacturers each month to gauge the industry's health.
The intrigue: There has been a profound shift in the bar for economic certainty in the Trump era relative to years past, when it was a no-brainer that large global trade deals would define global commerce for the foreseeable future.
- Asked what certainty in this new era might look like, Spence says: "Enough time needs to go by with no other changes."
- "If I'm the CFO of a company, and there is a deal in place with China and Europe, and three months go by and there hasn't been a big change, relations seem good with no new threats — then maybe I am going to be comfortable enough to move forward with decisions I have delayed," Spence says.
Driving the news: The reciprocal tariffs paused roughly 90 days ago were set to be reimposed on Wednesday. Days before, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that August 1 is actually the next date to watch.
- "President Trump's going to be sending letters to some of our trading partners saying that if you don't move things along, then on August 1, you will boomerang back to your April 2 tariff level," Bessent told CNN on Sunday.
- Bessent said the Trump administration was not extending the deadline: "If you want to speed things up, have at it. If you want to go back to the old rate, that's your choice."
Between the lines: It is the latest murky timeline that business leaders will have to try to understand.
- The list already includes July 21, when the U.S. and Canada are supposed to notch a deal. There is also Aug. 12, when the 90-day trade truce with China expires.
- Deals with other major trading partners — Japan and Mexico, for instance — look uncertain.
What to watch: Bessent hinted that other deals could be imminent over the next 48 hours, in addition to the two previously announced trade frameworks with the U.K. and Vietnam.
- "There's a lot of foot dragging on the other side, and so I would expect to see several big announcements over the next couple of days," Bessent said.
The bottom line: So much for certainty.
