Global trade (back) in limbo

Global trade rules are about as hazy now as in early April, when the White House touted "90 deals in 90 days" that would ease the uncertainty.

Why it matters: Since the April 9 trade war de-escalation, businesses have been waiting for clarity on where tariffs will settle so they can adapt their supply chains and pricing accordingly.

• It now appears as if the July 9 deadline for those deals will pass with little certainty.
• For business leaders, the fear is that the trade wars started when Donald Trump took office don't have a firm end date, a worry that grows with each shifting deadline.

What they're saying: "Whatever deals there are going to be, let's just ink it and move on," says Sue Spence, the chair of the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing business survey committee.

• "But even if that happens, there is such a disbelief it will stick," says Spence, who surveys manufacturers each month to gauge the industry's health.

What's new: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC early Monday that trade announcements were coming in the next 48 hours.

• Bessent said "we've had a lot of people change their tune in terms of negotiations" since Trump threatened that countries could revert back to the tariffs outlined on Liberation Day.
• "My mailbox was full last night with a lot of new offers, a lot of new proposals," he said.

Yes, but: Bessent also pointed to August 1 as the next date to watch, when countries that have not landed deals will see tariff rates revert back to those announced in early April.

• Trump posted on Truth Social last night that "UNITED STATES TARIFF letters and/or Deals with various Countries from around the World" will be delivered starting at noon Monday.

What to watch: Today sets off the latest murky timeline that business leaders will struggle to understand.

• The list of dates already includes July 21, when the U.S. and Canada are supposed to notch a deal. There is also Aug. 12, when the 90-day trade truce with China expires.
• The Trump administration has announced trade frameworks with the U.K. and Vietnam, though agreements with other major trading partners — Japan and Mexico, for instance — look uncertain.
• The European Commission's Ursula von der Leyen "had a good exchange" with Trump last night, the bloc said. It is a hint that talks might be moving in the right direction ahead of Wednesday, when tariffs on European goods are threatened to jump to 50%.

Tariff threats ahead

The prospect of substantially higher import taxes remains, even if there are a wave of tariff deals announced in the days ahead.

• The Commerce Department is considering the potential for tariffs on individual sectors — including chips, pharmaceuticals and more — under its trade authorities, Section 232 and Section 301.
• Trump last night threatened to impose additional tariffs on the "BRICS" (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), ahead of their annual gathering in South America.

The big picture: "Historically, fully fledged trade deals take, on average, three years to conclude, not three months," Morgan Stanley economists wrote in a note this morning.

• "Our best guess is that any near-term announcements will not be comprehensive and permanent, and will likely be some kind of blanket agreement," they add.
• "Even if we get a range of agreements on July 8/9, because of all the uncertainty noted above, the next question will obviously be, for how long is this agreement valid?"

The intrigue: Businesses are yearning for some clarity — a sense that whatever the new tariff regime may look like, it will remain relatively stable.

• Asked what certainty in this new era might look like, ISM's Spence says: "Enough time needs to go by with no other changes."
• "If I'm the CFO of a company, and there is a deal in place with China and Europe, and three months go by and there hasn't been a big change, relations seem good with no new threats — then maybe I am going to be comfortable enough to move forward with decisions I have delayed," Spence says.