Axios

Israelis head to the polls today for one of the most consequential elections in the country's history — with rival camps warning that victory for the other would put Israel's future in jeopardy.

Why it matters: The elections are yet another referendum on Benjamin Netanyahu's leadership and the path he's taken the country down over the past four years.

A day after Venezuela's exiled opposition leader returned to Caracas with great fanfare, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a veiled warning against interfering with the country's fragile democratic transition pushed by the Trump administration.

• "You're not going to street-protest your way into a democracy," Rubio told reporters Monday without explicitly mentioning María Corina Machado.

Why it matters: Machado's demands for elections next year — and her criticism of a massive U.S. oil deal struck with the current Caracas regime — have put administration officials on edge after her surprise return.

A pair of Trump-friendly, right-wing populists took a one-two punch Sunday: Brazil rejected a Bolsonaro comeback, and Serbia toppled a strongman's ruling party.

The big picture: Brazil denied Trump a close ally at the helm of Latin America's largest economy, snapping a streak of seven straight conservative wins in the region. In Europe, Serbia and Hungary toppled leaders with close Trump ties who had dominated their countries for years.

President Trump and MAGA-world influencers are echoing Brazilian presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro's claims of a rigged election after the Trump-aligned populist fell to the incumbent president in Sunday's election.

The big picture: President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's runoff victory has been widely seen as a counterweight to the global right's surge in Latin America. But Bolsonaro, like his father, isn't accepting defeat.

Brazilian assets tumbled Monday following the re-election of Brazil's left-leaning incumbent in a presidential runoff Sunday.

Why it matters: The re-election of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva — known as Lula— underscores the economic challenges Brazil faces as the one-time union organizer heads toward his fourth non-consecutive presidential term.

TEL AVIV, Israel — Gadi Eisenkot is as low-key as Benjamin Netanyahu is bombastic. He's a political novice up against the longest-serving, most politically savvy prime minister in Israel's history.

• And yet, on the eve of Tuesday's elections, Eisenkot poses the most serious threat to Netanyahu's hold on power in years.

Why it matters: A victory by the Yashar party leader would upend Israeli politics and could reset the country's strained relationships abroad.

President Trump's Board of Peace has appointed Shelley Greenspan, who served as the White House's Jewish community liaison during the Biden administration, to lead its outreach to Congress and the Washington think tank community.

Why it matters: Greenspan's selection is part of an effort by the Board of Peace to increase bipartisan support for President Trump's Gaza peace plan. The implementation of the plan is expected to get a renewed push after the midterms and the formation of a new Israeli government.

Oil prices are back to the high levels of March as investors price in the growing risk that the Iran war will escalate.

Why it matters: Higher energy prices ripple through the entire economy, pushing up inflation.

• The recent rise in oil has also put stocks under pressure: Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined last week as prices climbed.

Brazil President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was elected to a fourth, nonconsecutive term in the nation's presidential election, according to early results released Sunday evening.

Why it matters: Lula's victory deals a setback to Brazil's right-wing populist movement and preserves a major counterweight to President Trump's influence in Latin America, with tensions over trade and tariffs threatening to persist.