Axios

NATO allies are increasing their military presence in Greenland against the backdrop of a growing threat: President Trump's takeover push.

Why it matters: Europeans say the military buildup is meant to counter general Arctic threats, but U.S. aggression towards a NATO-backed ally creates a relatively unprecedented scenario: planning to repel an attack from within.

President Trump won over many voters in the 2024 election with his hardline stances on immigration, an assertive foreign policy and promises to strengthen the economy.

Why it matters: Those same policies are now creating political headwinds, as polling shows broad opposition to how he has handled many of his second-term initiatives.

President Trump is delaying a decision on striking Iran as the White House consults internally and with allies about the timing for such an operation and whether it would meaningfully destabilize the regime, according to five U.S., Israeli and Arab sources with knowledge of the situation.

Why it matters: The military option remains firmly on the table, but Trump's decision to pause has exposed deep uncertainty — inside the administration and among allies — about the risks of a strike that punishes Iran while inviting major retaliation.

Venezuelan opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado is scheduled to meet President Trump on Thursday as her country's future — and her own political fate — hang in the balance.

The big picture: Ahead of the stunning U.S. raid to capture Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Machado has sought to appeal to Trump. But as the smoke cleared over Caracas, Trump held off on throwing U.S. support behind her as the country's next leader.

A bipartisan group of lawmakers will introduce new legislation Thursday to establish a $2.5 billion "Strategic Resilience Reserve" (SRR) for critical minerals, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: President Trump is bringing his prospector's pick to nearly every corner of the globe — including Ukraine, Venezuela and Greenland — in a push to boost the U.S. supply of minerals that are critical to the tech industry's growth.

The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) has launched its fastest-ever legal campaign against President Trump in his first year, filing challenges at a pace that could double those in his first term, according to an analysis first shared with Axios.

Why it matters: Trump is using executive power at historic speed and scale, and the ACLU has again emerged as his most persistent institutional check.

After launching "phase two" of the Gaza ceasefire deal on Wednesday, two U.S. officials insisted in a briefing with reporters that Hamas has privately signaled it's ready to accept the U.S. demilitarization plan and begin to disarm.

Why it matters: Any hope of turning the Gaza truce into lasting peace depends on Hamas giving up its weapons, and on Israel pulling its troops back rather than trying once again to disarm Hamas by force.

President Trump said on Wednesday that he would impose a 25% tariff on select semiconductors, including the Nvidia chips it plans to sell in China.

Why it matters: The tariffs are part of a broader deal, one in which the U.S. government will reap revenues from allowing Nvidia to sell AI processors in China.

The White House announced on Wednesday that it was launching "phase two" of the Gaza ceasefire agreement with the establishment of a new Palestinian technocratic government.

Why it matters: U.S. officials worry the situation in Gaza could deteriorate into a renewed war unless there is progress toward implementing the second phase of the deal, which involves Hamas giving up its weapons, Israel pulling its troops back, and new governing and security structures coming into force.

The U.S. started evacuating some troops from al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar and several other bases in the region ahead of a potential military conflict with Iran over the protests in the country, two sources with knowledge tell Axios.

Why it matters: President Trump is weighing the possibility of launching strikes against Iran in response to the mass killing of protesters. Iran has threatened to retaliate by attacking U.S. forces in the region.

President Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio plan to attend Monday's college football championship game in Miami.

Why it matters: Rubio is one of Trump's favorite Cabinet members, and the two have grown increasingly close in part because of their love of football.

Oil prices have risen to their highest levels since last fall as traders weigh the prospect of the U.S. striking Iran amid the regime's bloody crackdown on protesters.

Why it matters: Iran is OPEC's fourth-largest producer, pumping well over three million barrels per day and exporting over 1 million barrels per day despite U.S. sanctions, with most flowing to China.

The world's understanding of how President Trump intends to wield the American military and influence the industry that arms it changed dramatically in two weeks flat.

The big picture: In the earliest days of the new year, the commander in chief dispatched troops to capture Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro and warned Colombia, Cuba, Greenland and Mexico they could be next.