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National

Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) warned donors last week that internal polling for her Senate campaign shows Vice President Kamala Harris is "underwater" in Michigan, according to a video clip obtained by Axios.

Why it matters: Winning Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania is Harris' simplest path to victory. If former President Trump sweeps the Sun Belt, he'd only need to pick off one of those Blue Wall states to win the election.

FiveThirtyEight's average of polls has Harris up by about 2.4 points in Michigan. The latest New York Times/Siena College poll has her up by just one.

Michigan is also a top pickup opportunity for Senate Republicans, with millions of dollars now flooding the race between Slotkin and former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.).

What she's saying: "I'm not feeling my best right now about where we are on Kamala Harris in a place like Michigan," Slotkin said during a virtual fundraiser on Wednesday with Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.), according to a recording.

"We have her underwater in our polling," Slotkin added.

Spokespeople for Slotkin's campaign did not respond to requests for comment.

Between the lines: It's not unusual for campaigns to paint themselves as the polling underdog as a fundraising tactic.

RCP's polling average has Slotkin up 48% to 43%, and the recent NYT/Siena poll has her up by five points. Republicans have also raised alarm about Democrats' 2:1 money advantage in the state.

But there are some signs the Senate race could be tightening — Republican internal polling shows the candidates are statistically tied, according to a source familiar with the matter.

Senate races in ruby-red Ohio and Montana have been getting more money and attention, but a Republican win in Michigan would be a major upset and virtually guarantee a GOP majority.

Scoop: Rep. Elissa Slotkin warns Harris is "underwater" in Michigan

"I'm not feeling my best right now," Slotkin told donors.

Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) speaks on stage during the final day of the Democratic National Convention 

Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) speaking on the final day of the Democratic National Convention. Photo: Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

2024 elections

Axios Vibes

Elections 2024

Kamala Harris

2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

Politics & Policy

Through public remarks, Truth Social screeds and more than 100 preemptive lawsuits, Donald Trump is assembling a detailed catalog of excuses for rejecting the results of the 2024 election — if he loses.

Why it matters: The Trump-aligned efforts to overturn the 2020 election — both overtly and covertly, peacefully then violently — shocked the American public. No one should be surprised this time around.

Listen to Trump: The former president, who risks jail time and more criminal trials if he loses, has expanded his range of baseless attacks on U.S. voting procedures in recent weeks and months.

Overseas voting: Trump falsely claimed Monday that Democrats are exploiting an overseas ballot program for expats and military members in order to circumvent "any citizenship check or verification of identity."

Early voting: At a rally in Pennsylvania last week, Trump denounced what he called the "stupid" concept of voting 45 days before the election — floating conspiracy theories about his loss in the crucial swing state four years ago.

Mail-in voting: Trump has long despised mail-in ballots. He's recently attacked the U.S. Postal Service as incompetent and untrustworthy — even as the GOP has pushed its voters to embrace the practice.

Zoom in: The millions of undocumented migrants who have crossed into the U.S. during the Biden administration are a top campaign issue. They're also being used to fuel new voter fraud conspiracy theories.

Earlier this month, Trump demanded that House Republicans use the threat of a government shutdown to pass a measure requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote in federal elections.

That effort failed, but it gave Trump and Republicans a new excuse to claim election fraud — even though it's already illegal and exceedingly rare for non-citizens to vote in U.S. elections.

Between the lines: Even without evidence of voting irregularities, Trump is preparing to deploy broader rhetorical arguments for why the election was fundamentally unfair.

The former president has accused Democrats of "cheating" by swapping out President Biden for Vice President Kamala Harris in June, and engaging in "lawfare" through criminal prosecution.

"If there was no cheating — if God came down from on high and said 'I'm going to be your vote tabulator for this election,' I would leave this podium right now," Trump said Sunday at a rally in Pennsylvania.

"We have to have a landslide because they cheat so damn much."

The big picture: Since 2020, the Republican Party apparatus has been reorganized — from the top down — to give credence to Trump's false claims that election fraud is a scourge on American politics.

Trump's campaign and the Republican National Committee say they've built a network of about 175,000 volunteer poll watchers and poll workers, part of a relentless focus on "election integrity."

In Georgia, a hard-right election board has passed new rules that Democrats fear could be used to undermine confidence in the results if Trump loses the critical battleground state.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) drew outrage last week by pledging to certify the 2024 election and "follow the Constitution" only if it's a "free, fair and safe election."

What to watch: On Nov. 1, 2020, Axios reported that Trump had privately told confidants he planned to prematurely declare victory on election night if it looked like he was "ahead."

Given the likelihood that the election once again will take days to call, don't be surprised to see the former president dust off that same playbook.

Trump preps catalog of "cheating" claims for potential election loss

No one should be surprised this time around.

Illustration of a voting booth with a siren on top.

Electoral fraud

2020 election

Donald Trump

Tensions in the Middle East following the death of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah are spiraling and tipping toward what the Biden administration has feared for months: a broader regional war. 

Here's what you may have missed when newsmakers hit the airwaves this Sunday, September 29.

1. Cotton dismisses Middle East ceasefire

Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) speaks on CBS News' "Face the Nation."

Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) speaks on CBS News' "Face the Nation" on Sept. 29.

Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) said it isn't the right time for Israel to broker a ceasefire, taking a stance at odds with efforts by the Biden administration and several U.S. allies to halt the fighting.  

What he's saying: "Hezbollah is on its knees," Cotton said on CBS News' "Face the Nation. "The United States should help Israel drive Hezbollah to the mat and choke it out and finish it off once and for all."

He called for the U.S. to "let Israel win rather than continue to make these feckless demands for ceasefires and de-escalation."

Cotton added he'd support an Israeli ground invasion into Lebanon if "that's what Israel needs to do to eliminate the remnants of Hezbollah's leadership and arsenal."

The big picture: The proposed 21-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah would allow a pause for negotiations in the escalating conflict, where hundreds have reportedly been killed in just days.

Thousands in Gaza and Lebanon have been killed in Israeli strikes in nearly a year since Hamas' brutal Oct. 7 attack that killed 1,200.

Retired Army Gen. Stanley McChrystal, who served as the head of U.S. and international forces in Afghanistan, offered a word of caution when asked about Cotton's suggestion: "Just spiraling the violence is unlikely to produce a good outcome."

But he added: "I can sympathize with both sides, the visceral desire to go after the other."

As Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to wage war against Iranian proxies with mounting civilian casualties, McChrystal noted, "The long-term outcome in Palestine writ large is going to be from a statesman-like view."

He continued: "If he's [Netanyahu] taking a wartime view only, I think at some point he's either going to have to widen that aperture or take a longer view of it."

National Security spokesman John Kirby said Sunday on CNN's "State of the Union" that there "needs to be an effort to de-escalate."

He noted, "Hezbollah under Mr. Nasrallah was a lethal threat to the Israeli people — they want to get their families back to those homes and kibbutzes in the north," but said the U.S. believes "an all-out war with Hezbollah, certainly with Iran, is not the way to do that."

Zoom out: Asked by CNN's Jake Tapper about a possible ground incursion into Lebanon, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) called for normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia — a cause he has continuously advocated for — saying, "Without some diplomatic solution, Israel is going to be occupying parts ... of Lebanon to create a buffer zone."

He added: "That to me is not the outcome I desire."

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) speaks to CNN's Jake Tapper on "State of the Union" on Sept. 29.

Several Republicans making the Sunday show rounds brought up the same talking point when asked about the border — that hundreds of thousands of migrants have committed crimes while President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris have been in office. 

Why it matters: The data the GOP members are referencing was released last week by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas). 

The statistics span decades, including the Trump administration years, and some of the individuals counted are serving prison sentences, not living freely.

What they're saying: "400,000 people have been let loose in our country, 16,000 people convicted of being a rapist, 13,000 convicted murderers and 400,000 people generally convicted of crimes were released on her watch," Graham said on "State of the Union," before being fact-checked by CNN anchor Jake Tapper about the data. 

Cotton cited the same numbers during his appearance on "Face the Nation," telling CBS's Robert Costa, claiming the administration "acknowledged" it "released more than 13,000 convicted murderers" and other criminals "who Kamala Harris and Joe Biden have let roam our streets."

Donald Trump Jr., the former president's eldest son, accused Harris of "literally letting in 16,000 rapists across the border that she was in charge of. 13,000 murderers as part of the millions of people they've let into this country unchecked" during his appearance on Fox News' "Sunday Morning Futures."

And then there's Trump, who took to Truth Social Friday, the same day Harris visited the border, to slam her record on immigration using the data: "Kamala should immediately cancel her News Conference because it was just revealed that 13,000 convicted murderers entered our Country during her three and a half year period as Border Czar."

Between the lines: Despite Republican claims, Harris was never appointed to be in charge of the border or its security. Biden appointed her to lead diplomatic efforts related to immigration, including meeting officials from Central American countries to work on solutions to ease migration to the U.S.

Worth noting: CNN fact-checker Daniel Dale writes that the "non-detained" list includes people who are behind bars serving criminal sentences but are not being held in "immigration detention in particular," meaning criminals are not necessarily being allowed to "openly roam" the country (as Trump said).

However, the total number on the non-detained docket — including those not convicted of any crimes — CNN notes, did spike under the Biden administration.

Former Sen. Jeff Flake speaks on ABC's "This Week" on Sept. 29.

Jeff Flake, the former Arizona senator and U.S. Ambassador to Turkey, is the latest GOP member to endorse Harris.

Driving the news: Flake didn't call Trump by name when explaining his reasoning in an appearance on ABC News' "This Week" but said he couldn't endorse a candidate who "tries to use the powers of the presidency to overturn" an election.

He said he thought Republicans "believe in the rule of law in particular" and that overturning an election is "anything but respect for the rule of law."

Flake also highlighted the former president's tariff policy as going against conservative viewpoints on free trade.

Zoom out: Given Flake's connection to a border state, ABC News' Martha Raddatz pressed the former senator on his views about Harris' immigration policies.

Flake conceded Harris could be tougher on the border "particularly with asylum policies."

"You've been a good friend": Biden honors Jimmy Carter ahead of 100th birthday

Harris sticks with Biden on foreign policy — for now

"Our hearts are heavy": NWS writes emotional letter to Carolinas, Georgia

Sunday Snapshot: Washington wary of wider Middle East war

Smoke rises above Beirut's southern suburbs after an Israeli strike.

Smoke rises above Beirut's southern suburbs during an Israeli strike on Sept. 27. A source close to Hezbollah said the massive Israeli strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs flattened six buildings. Photo: AFP via Getty Images

Tom Cotton

China

Immigration

Israel

Conflicts, policies and powers are intersecting and shaping the world. Breaking news and analysis of national security, foreign policy and global crises.

World

The Israeli Air Force conducted an airstrike on the port of Hodeidah in Yemen on Sunday, two Israeli officials told Axios.

Why it matters: The Israeli officials said the strike was in retaliation for at least two attacks the Houthis launched against Tel Aviv over the past two weeks using long-range ballistic missiles.

The Houthis had threatened to retaliate for Israel's strike on Hodeidah, Yemen's fourth-largest city, in July. 

Sunday's attack was the second Israeli strike ever in Yemen and comes as Israel engages in war on several fronts, from Gaza to Lebanon to Yemen.  

Driving the news: The Israeli strike on the Red Sea port city was conducted in the early evening local time.

An Israeli official said oil facilities in the port and "sensitive" Houthi facilities in the area were among the targets. Israeli and U.S. officials said Israel notified U.S. Central Command (USCENTCOM) ahead of the strike.

Houthi spokesperson Nasruddin Amer said the Israeli attack failed because the Houthis had removed oil from the tankers in the port in advance. He said the Houthis will continue to support Gaza and would respond to the Israeli attack.

The health ministry in Yemen said four people were killed and 29 wounded in the Israeli strike.

What they're saying: Dozens of Israeli air force aircraft attacked Houthi military targets, including power plants and a seaport used to import oil, the IDF said in a statement confirming the strike.

The IDF said the infrastructure was used by the Houthis to transfer Iranian weapons to the region and supplies for military needs. 

"The attack was carried out in response to the latest attacks carried out by the Houthi regime against the State of Israel."

The big picture: The strike in Yemen took place as Israel continued attacking Hezbollah targets in Beirut and Lebanon's Beqaa Valley on Sunday, Israeli officials said.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin ordered the military to further reinforce U.S. defensive air-support capabilities in the Middle East in the coming days, the Pentagon said on Sunday.

The Pentagon said Austin has also "increased the readiness of additional U.S. forces to deploy, elevating our preparedness to respond to various contingencies."

Israel conducts airstrike on Yemen port

The Israeli officials said the strike was in retaliation for attacks the Houthis launched against Tel Aviv over the past two weeks.

Axios

Sunday's top stories