National

The Department of Justice is "on a path to charge" former President Trump,  former U.S. attorney Preet Bharara told NBC's "Meet the Press" on Sunday.

Driving the news: Last month, Attorney General Merrick Garland announced the appointment of a special counsel, Jack Smith, to oversee the federal criminal investigations into Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 election and handling of classified documents.

 Smith, a veteran federal prosecutor, will be tasked with prosecuting federal crimes that arise from the investigations.

What they're saying: Bharara said the Department of Justice was "loaded for bear," citing the appointment of Smith as special counsel and the creation of a legal team that includes "a number of very seasoned prosecutors" who were brought on to help determine whether DOJ has a case that can go to trial.

"I don't think they would've left their former positions, both in government and private practice, unless there was a serious possibility that the Justice Department was on a path to charge. And I think it'll happen in a month," he added.

"When you're charging somebody in maybe the highest-stakes trial, in some ways, in history, because it's the former president of the United States, you've got to have all your ducks in a row."

"You want to have proof beyond a reasonable doubt, and you want to have a strong case. I think you want to have an exceptionally strong case," given how heavily politicized the context surrounding the case would be, Bharara said.

"To show not just the jury in the case but the public at large that it was a righteous case, it was a meritorious case, and you have the goods."

Former US attorney believes DOJ "on a path to charge" Trump

"You want to have proof beyond a reasonable doubt, and you want to have a strong case."

Former U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara speaks at the Oslo Freedom Forum in 2019. Photo: Julia Reinhart/Getty Images

Department of Justice (DOJ)

Politics & Policy

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The U.S. is still "negotiating" for the release of detained American Paul Whelan, National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said Sunday on ABC's "This Week." 

Driving the news: Kirby said that the U.S. made a "very serious, specific proposal made to the Russians" to secure the release of Whelan and WNBA star Brittney Griner together, but "it just didn't land anywhere ... with the Russians."

"As we progressed through this summer and into the fall ... it was clear that they were treating Paul very separately, very distinctly because of these sham espionage charges they levied against him."

Kirby also said that it became clear last week that Whelan's release was unlikely.

"It really occurred to us that there was just no chance of doing it last week ... we had been trying all the way up until the moment we actually secured the deal that got Brittney home, we were still trying to get Paul out."

State of play: The U.S. earlier this week exchanged Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout for Griner.

Whelan has been jailed since December 2018 on charges of espionage, which the U.S. government has denied.

David Whelan, brother of Paul Whelan, said Saturday that Biden "made the right choice" in choosing to bring the WNBA star home from Russia.

"An American should come home if they can come home," David Whelan said. 

What he's saying: Kirby maintained that the Biden administration is committed to "trying as hard as we can" to secure Whelan's release. 

"This business of getting wrongfully detained Americans home, there's nothing easy about it," Kirby said. 

"There's very rarely moments where it's just an aha. ... It's hard work and there are tough decisions that go into it. This was one of them too."

"Even if you do everything right ... and you get detained wrongfully, the United States isn't going to forget you," he said. 

"If we have to make tough decisions to get you back home, then this president's willing to do that."

The big picture: Fiona Hill, the former top Russia expert on the National Security Council, told CBS' "Face the Nation" on Sunday that during the Trump administration, Russia made several overtures to trade Whelan for Bout or Russian drug smuggler Konstantin Yaroshenko.

 Yaroshenko was eventually traded for former U.S. Marine Trevor Reed.

"They had every intent of trying to swap Americans that had been wrongfully detained for individuals in the United States custody who were there for pretty good reasons," Hill said.

Hill also said that at that time, "President Trump wasn't especially interested in engaging in that swap for also Paul Whelan. He was not particularly interested in Paul's case in the way that one would have thought he would be."

Go deeper... How the Biden admin says Brittney Griner's release happened

Editor's note: This story has been updated to include comments from Fiona Hill. 

Kirby: U.S. is still "negotiating" for Paul Whelan's release

"This business of getting wrongfully detained Americans home, there's nothing easy about it."

Russia

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

World

Select Democratic candidates who outperformed Biden in rural counties during the 2022 midterms

Data: Third Way; Chart: Axios Visuals. Note: Ryan's percentage is from his unsuccessful Senate run. 

A new analysis of the midterms by centrist Democratic think tank Third Way finds that most Democratic candidates improved on President Biden's 2020 performance in rural America — with some notable exceptions.

How it works: Third Way's data dive labeled counties as rural, suburban/exurban or urban and aggregated the countywide results. The analysis covered 10 states (Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Kansas, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) and 16 races.

By the numbers: Pennsylvania Sen.-elect John Fetterman was one of the party's top rural success stories. He outdistanced Biden by seven points in the state's rural counties — overperforming Democrats more in the state's rural counties than in the suburban and urban centers. 

The four Black Senate and gubernatorial nominees in the biggest battlegrounds (Georgia, North Carolina and Wisconsin) all underperformed Biden in their states' rural counties. Only one other Democrat in the analysis (defeated Nevada Gov. Steve Sisolak) did worse than Biden in rural counties.

In the Georgia runoff, Sen. Raphael Warnock underperformed Biden by 1.8% in the state's rural counties, even as he overperformed the president by 5.3% in the urban counties.

Among Senate candidates, the party's top overperformer in the suburbs was Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly, who ran 4.7% ahead of Biden.

Between the lines: Biden's rural performance in 2020 was a low point for Democrats, so there was plenty of room to improve. Only 33% of rural voters backed Biden in the last presidential election, according to a Pew Research Center analysis, a worse showing than Hillary Clinton in 2016.

On the flip side, 10 of the 16 candidates outperformed Biden in the suburbs, reinforcing their status as Democrats' new sweet spot.

Biden already dominated in the suburbs by 11 points over Trump, according to the Pew analysis, making the continued Democratic gains all the more consequential.

Democrats show signs of life in rural America

Biden's rural performance in 2020 was a low point for Democrats.

Midterm elections 2022

Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's stunning decision to become an independent has triggered the possibility of a blue-on-purple civil war that could cost Democrats a must-win Senate seat in 2024.

The big picture: In the last three elections, Democrats have won unlikely victories in traditionally red Arizona because a critical mass of independents and moderate Republicans couldn't stomach MAGA-aligned GOP nominees.

Sinema would have had difficulty winning a primary. But she can win a general election — and might even be the favorite — if no Democrat of consequence runs.

But if moderate and progressive Democrats split, her move risks handing the Senate seat to a Republican nominee — potentially a right-wing candidate like Kari Lake. 

What to watch: The White House and Democrats' Senate campaign arm will have two crucial decisions to make:

If Sinema runs for re-election, will they endorse her independent candidacy, preempting a serious Democratic challenger?

Or will they rally behind a Democrat like Rep. Ruben Gallego, risking a messy general election that could hand her seat over to a Republican?

If Democrats take the first path, Sinema will be treated like Sen. Angus King, a Maine independent who caucuses with the Democrats and draws only nominal Democratic opposition in his campaigns.

Utah Senate candidate Evan McMullin also ran competitively as an independent this year, and his candidacy was tacitly embraced by Democrats.

If Democrats take the second path, party leaders will work all-out to oppose her re-election (assuming she runs).

But it's tough to see how Democrats hold the seat if both Sinema and Gallego are on the general election ballot.

Sinema isn't conservative enough to secure support from most Republicans, and she'd likely split enough Democratic votes to allow a GOP candidate to win with a plurality.

In other words, Sinema is essentially daring Democrats (and Gallego) to get in, knowing it comes with the threat of mutually assured destruction.

What they're saying: "I know this will probably disappoint folks, but I'm actually not even thinking about electoral politics or talking about that at all right now," Sinema said coyly when asked about her 2024 plans on CNN.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee did not respond to requests for comment.

Between the lines: Even with a muddled pathway to re-election, Sinema has suddenly handed herself significant leverage, both legislatively and politically.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) can't afford to punish Sinema by removing her committee assignments and losing key perks that come with a 51-seat majority.

As an independent who doesn't need to run in a primary, Sinema also has the benefit of time. If there's no pathway for her to win, she could ultimately decide to retire. 

Flashback: In 2018, both Sinema and Gallego wanted to run for the Senate. Schumer persuaded Gallego to pass on the race, giving Sinema a glide path to the Democratic nomination.

By the numbers: Democrats only make up 31% of registered voters in Arizona, lagging behind Republicans (35%) and independents (34%). 

"If Democrats nominated a progressive and Republicans nominated a MAGA candidate, that's the scenario where Sinema could pull off a victory," said former Arizona House Speaker Kirk Adams, who served as GOP Gov. Doug Ducey's chief of staff. 

"I have a long track record of telling my colleagues not to underestimate Kyrsten Sinema. And I've been right every time. She's never done anything half-baked," Adams added.

The bottom line: With a narrow majority and a punishing Senate map in 2024, Democrats can't afford to squander any purple-state Senate seats. 

Sinema's mutually assured destruction

Sinema is essentially daring Democrats to oppose her in 2024.

Photo: Elizabeth Frantz for The Washington Post via Getty Images

Kyrsten Sinema

Space

Axios Space

NASA's Orion spacecraft is back on Earth after its flight around the Moon. 

Why it matters: The uncrewed capsule's splashdown in the Pacific brings the space agency's first Artemis mission to a successful end, testing out some of the technology needed to one day send people to the surface of the Moon.

Driving the news: Orion splashed down under its parachutes in the ocean at about 12:39pm ET. 

The capsule successfully executed its "skip entry" return to Earth by skimming the planet's upper atmosphere, skipping back out and then re-entering, coming down under parachutes. 

"The latest chapter in NASA's journey back to the surface of the Moon comes to a close," NASA spokesperson Rob Navias said during the webcast of the splashdown. "Orion is back on Earth."

The big picture: NASA could send people back to the lunar surface as soon as 2025, but its next Artemis mission will see a crew of astronauts circle the Moon before coming back to Earth. 

Before people can land on the Moon, however, companies partnering with NASA will need to deliver a lunar lander and spacesuits for use on the Moon.

NASA's Orion capsule is back on Earth after journey around the Moon

Orion splashed down under parachutes in the Pacific Ocean.

Orion coming back to Earth. Photo: NASA TV

NASA

A look at the scientific breakthroughs changing the world, explorations in space and in worlds beyond our own and the threats posed to us by our own planet, both out of our control and of our own making.

Science

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If the Jan. 6 select committee investigating the Capitol riot chooses to issue criminal referrals, it could be a signal to the Department of Justice to focus their federal investigation on certain alleged crimes, Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) told ABC's "This Week" on Sunday.

Driving the news: The panel's chair, Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.), told reporters last week that the committee was still working to decide who might be referred and for what alleged crimes.

The Jan. 6 committee plans to release its final report on Dec. 21.

What they're saying: "What you will see with this report and everything included is a fulsome picture," Kinzinger said, adding that "this is all about telling the American people about what happened."

"It's very clear that DOJ has decided to take this effort up," he added, referring to the Department of Justice. 

"The criminal referrals themselves aren’t necessarily something that is going to wake [the] DOJ up to something they didn't know before," he said.

"But I do think it will be an important symbolic thing that the committee can do — or even more than symbolic, just very clear that Congress thinks, you know, a crime has been committed here and the DOJ should investigate it."

Kinzinger: Jan. 6 panel's criminal referrals could signal DOJ to investigate

"This is all about telling the American people about what happened."

Jan. 6 select committee

The federal government has "failed its duty" to communities on the southern border over the past 40 years, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) said during an interview on CNN's "State of the Union" that aired Sunday.

Driving the news: Sinema made waves in Congress this week by announcing that she was leaving the Democratic Party and registering as an independent mere days after Democrats secured a 51-49 majority in the Senate.

Reflecting on her decision, Sinema told host Jake Tapper that it is important to her "to not be tethered by the partisanship that dominates politics today."

The big picture: Asked by Tapper about Republican claims that Democrats "don't take border security seriously," Sinema painted both parties as responsible for problems regarding the southern border.

"As a native Arizonan, born and raised on the southern border, I can tell you unequivocally that the federal government has failed its duty in the last 40 years," Sinema said.

"Everyone. The federal government has failed here. Places like Arizona, front lines of this crisis have been paying the price every single day since then," she added.

"So for us, this isn't just a talking point of team A versus team B. This is our life every day."

Sinema said she supported finding a path to legal citizenship for Dreamers as well as "securing the border."

"This is a perfect example of why I'm so frustrated with partisanship that has gripped our nation," Sinema said.

"It's not either/or. It's and. Both of those concerns are real and valid, and we as a government have a duty to solve both of those concerns."

Sinema: Federal government has "failed" the southern border

"This isn't just a talking point of team A versus team B. This is our life every day."

Sen. Kyrtsen Sinema (D-AZ) speaks at a news conference 

Kyrsten Sinema speaks at a news conference on Nov. 29. Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

A Libyan man suspected of making a bomb that destroyed Pan Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland, in 1988 and killed 270 people, including 190 Americans, was taken into U.S. custody on Sunday, AP reports.

Why it matters: Abu Agela Mas’ud Kheir Al-Marimi was taken into U.S. custody roughly two years after the U.S. announced charges against him, alleging that new evidence indicated Mas’ud had created the explosive device.

The Lockerbie bombing remains the single deadliest terrorist attack ever carried out in the United Kingdom and the second deadliest terrorist attack for Americans.

What they're saying: A Department of Justice official confirmed to AP that Mas’ud had been taken into U.S. custody and would make an initial appearance in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia.

"The families of those killed in the Lockerbie bombing have been told that the suspect Abu Agila Mohammad Mas'ud Kheir Al-Marimi ("Mas'ud" or "Masoud") is in U.S. custody," a spokesperson for Scotland's Crown Office and Procurator Fiscal Service said Sunday, according to BBC.

"Scottish prosecutors and police, working with U.K. government and U.S. colleagues, will continue to pursue this investigation, with the sole aim of bringing those who acted along with Al Megrahi to justice."

The big picture: Abdel Baset Ali al-Megrahi, a Libyan intelligence officer, is the only man to have been convicted over the attack after a Scottish court convened in The Netherlands and tried him.

He was imprisoned for life but was released in 2009 by the Scottish government after being diagnosed with cancer and died in Libya in 2012.

The charges against Mas’ud resulted from an interview he gave to Libyan law enforcement in 2012 after he was arrested following the collapse of Col. Moammar Gadhafi's regime.

U.S. officials said Mas’ud had admitted to building the Lockerbie bomb and worked with two other conspirators to carry out the attack, which he said was ordered by Libyan intelligence.

Mas'ud was also involved in the 1986 bombing of the LaBelle Discotheque in Berlin, which killed two American service members and a Turkish woman, according to U.S. officials.

Lockerbie plane bombing suspect taken into U.S. custody

The Lockerbie plane bombing remains the single deadliest terrorist attack ever carried out in the U.K.

The wreckage of Pan Am flight 103 in Lockerbie, Scotland, on Dec. 21, 1988.

The wreckage of Pan Am Flight 103 in Lockerbie, Scotland, on Dec. 21, 1988. Photo: Georges De Keerle/Getty Images

Scotland

China is setting up new intensive care facilities in response to rising COVID-19 cases, AP reports.

Driving the news: Some Chinese cities, including Beijing, are facing outbreaks, which has forced some businesses to close due to infected workers, Reuters reports.

"We can see that hundreds of thousands or tens of thousands of people are infected in several major cities," Zhong Nanshan, a Chinese epidemiologist, told state media, per Reuters.

Officials last week urged a "full mobilization" of hospitals and bolstered their staffing, AP reports from state media. 

Officials at the Cabinet meeting last week were also told to monitor the health of individuals 65 and older. 

The big picture: The surge in cases comes after China began paring down its strict "zero COVID" policy last week following nationwide protests.

Under the new guidelines, lockdown requirements were reduced and rules for isolating at state quarantine centers were rolled back, among other measures. 

Beijing last week also eliminated regular mandatory testing, so the official tally of cases is not clear.

The largest protests since Tiananmen in 1989 erupted nationwide last month in response to pandemic policies.

China battles rising COVID-19 cases after easing precautions

BEIJING, CHINA - DECEMBER 11: People gather outside a local pharmacy to buy medications to treat COVID-19 symptoms in the morning on December 11, 2022 in Beijing, China

People gather outside a local pharmacy to buy medications to treat COVID-19 symptoms on Dec. 11 in Beijing. Photo: Kevin Frayer/Getty Images

COVID-19

China

Finish Line

Axios Finish Line

Enrollment is down, longstanding traditions are crumbling and applicant pools are changing dramatically.

The big picture: Higher education in the U.S. is in the midst of a sea change, forcing schools to adapt with the times.

"It suggests that there’s a broader question about the value of college and particularly concerns about student debt and paying for college and potential labor market returns," Doug Shapiro, the executive director of the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, said earlier this year, per the New York Times. 

What's happening: College enrollment had been trending downward, and the pandemic accelerated the trend. 

The total number of undergraduate students in the U.S. dropped by nearly 10% during the pandemic, PBS NewsHour reports.

A majority of academic administrators, nearly 90%, say they are concerned about future enrollment, per a survey by Bay View Analytics.

The stakes: The number of colleges closing over the last decade quadrupled compared with the prior decade, the Wall Street Journal reported. 

"The hot water gets hottest fastest for private institutions that aren’t among the most selective," says Nathan Grawe, an economist at Carleton College. They don't have large endowments or government funds to support them, like big-name universities and public schools do.

Colleges are responding to dropping enrollment by introducing hybrid and online learning options. And universities are trying to lower hurdles to admission during the pandemic by scrapping standardized testing requirements. 

More than 1,450 colleges and universities have permanently eliminated standardized tests or made them optional, according to data from FairTest, which advocates for limited use of standardized tests.

Among those universities that have made standardized tests optional, many have seen increases in applications, especially among students of color and first-generation students. 

At Cornell University, for instance, applications rose 40% since the school made standardized tests optional — with the biggest increase coming from first-generation students, Bloomberg reports.

Between the lines: Another longstanding tradition of higher education  — U.S. News' annual college rankings list — may also be wavering. 

Columbia University fell 16 places on the ranking list earlier this year, to a spot last seen in 1988, in a dramatic shakeup that may have punctured perceptions of the decades-old list.

"That brought a lot more national attention to the weaknesses, the flaws, the foibles in the ranking system," Colin Diver, former president of Reed College, which does not participate in the rankings, told Axios after Columbia's fall.

State of play: The demographics of college students broadly have also shifted. 

Underrepresented minority applicants increased by 32% from 2019 to 2020, per Common App data out last month. First-generation applications increased by 43% during the same period.

Hispanic enrollment in four-year institutions has jumped a whopping 287% between 2000 and 2020, reaching an all-time high, according to Pew.

And there's a growing gender gap in college admissions, with women outnumbering men. There are about 130 women for every 100 men at four-year colleges, and the gap is even wider at two-year institutions, the St. Louis Fed notes.

Yes, but: Institutions are still far from closing the disparities in enrollment among historically underrepresented groups.

At the current rate, it would take about 70 years for all not-for-profit institutions to reflect underrepresented students in their incoming student population, per analysis this year by McKinsey & Company.

What to watch: One group of institutions bucking the dropping enrollment trend is HBCUs. Applications to top-tier HBCUs jumped as much as 30% between 2018 and 2021, per PBS NewsHour.

Go deeper ... Colleges are upending majors

Higher education's sea change

Several factors are changing the face of higher education.

Illustration of a man in a graduation cap and gown from behind

Universities

Pro Rata

Axios Pro Rata

The Twitter Files, a set of internal documents shared by Elon Musk with two outside reporters, purports to share an objective history of how Twitter operated under prior management. But instead it's become a political Rorschach test.

Why it matters: Reaction to the Twitter Files has been more revelatory than the disclosures themselves, although that could be my own confirmation bias coming through.

Catch up quick: Musk provided unprecedented access to writers Matt Taibbi and Bari Weiss. Both reporters shared their materials via lengthy Twitter threads, rather than on their own Substack newsletters.

Taibbi's initial contribution focused on the New York Post's Hunter Biden laptop story, including Twitter's decision to suspend the newspaper's account and to block users from sharing its article. A subsequent thread was on moderation discussions in the weeks leading up to January 6, followed on Saturday night by related information from two other authors.

Weiss focused on what she referred to as "Twitter's secret blacklists," with plans on Sunday to disclose information on the decision to ban former President Trump.

On the right: The Twitter Files are being held up as proof that Twitter took deliberate actions to limit access to information and voices that could damage Democrats.

The most salient argument here is that Twitter put its thumb on the scale by removing certain prominent accounts from trending, being amplified or found via search. Even if the intent wasn't partisan, the impact was. 

On the left: The Twitter Files are being dismissed as much ado about nothing, or at least about things that the company disclosed years ago. 

Defenders note that Twitter's terms of service say the company limits certain posts' reach in select cases, and that Musk himself advocates a similar policy. They add that Weiss provided anecdotes, rather than a comprehensive investigation, so it's impossible to conclude that such limitations were slanted in one direction.

In the middle: For most users, more interested in the World Cup or that new Netflix show, their view of the Twitter Files may be determined by whichever take is shared most in their feed. Or they just won't care at all.

The bottom line: The Twitter Files shouldn't be a Rorschach test, particularly if Musk ever releases all of the documents to the public. But, in the end, this isn't about facts. It's about feelings.

The #TwitterFiles Rorschach test

Everybody sees what they were predisposed to see.

Illustration of the Twitter logo as a Rorschach test 

Twitter

From the Valley to D.C., Big Tech players like Facebook, Google and Amazon are under more scrutiny than ever as new technology develops and privacy and antitrust concerns grow in lockstep with companies’ ambitions.

Sunday's top stories