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National

Zalmay Khalilzad was tasked by two U.S. presidents with negotiating an orderly U.S. exit from Afghanistan. Instead, one year ago, Kabul collapsed, the U.S. mounted a frantic evacuation, and the Taliban took total control.

What he's saying: "It's very unfortunate that we couldn't get a political agreement before the Taliban moved in," Khalilzad tells Axios in a phone interview. 

Flashback: There was still a glimmer of hope for a power-sharing deal, he argues, until Aug. 15, 2021. 

The Taliban had agreed to halt its advance outside Kabul and meet a delegation of senior Afghan politicians, including former President Hamid Karzai. But when President Ashraf Ghani fled, Khalilzad says, he left a vacuum.

The Taliban initially offered to let the U.S. military secure Kabul temporarily, Khalilzad says. Then-CENTCOM Commander Gen. Kenneth McKenzie later testified that there was no "formal offer" from the Taliban, and "we did not have the resources to undertake that mission.”

Instead, Taliban fighters swept into the city. The militant group later formed a government made up entirely of its own hardliners. The U.S. was out and Khalilzad's mission was over. He left the government last October.

The backstory: An Afghan-born veteran diplomat, Khalilzad was named by Donald Trump as special representative for Afghanistan reconciliation in 2018 and retained by President Biden. 

Both presidents wanted out of Afghanistan. While Khalilzad says he viewed the U.S troop presence as its primary leverage over the Taliban, both presidents saw it as a "burden."

Khalilzad says he and others argued internally that Biden should leave troops in Afghanistan until certain conditions were met — in particular, some form of intra-Afghan agreement on the future governance of the country. 

"I said, 'No, I cannot guarantee that there will be a political settlement, but it will provide us leverage with the Taliban,'" Khalilzad recalls. "The president thought we might never get to an agreement and we might get stuck there."

Between the lines: Biden's pessimism was hardly unreasonable, given the lack of progress in intra-Afghan talks prior to the fall of Kabul.

Now in power, the Taliban are held hostage by some of its more hardline elements, Khalilzad contends. 

For example, he says most senior Talibs believe girls should be allowed an education, and yet the Taliban government has offered a series of shifting explanations as to why schools can't yet be reopened.

"They emphasize unity because they don't want to fight each other, but at the same time there are clear differences inside," Khalilzad says. "That makes it frustrating dealing with them, because... all factions have to agree before they can give a definitive response."

Until the group moves toward a more inclusive government and society, it won't gain broad acceptance domestically or recognition and sanctions relief internationally, Khalilzad argues.

That means the U.S. still has leverage in Afghanistan, Khalilzad insists. And now the administration isn't operating on a tight timetable or worried about risks to U.S. troops. 

"The question is whether there can be a tradeoff — what we would do in exchange for what they do."

What to watch: Khalilzad says his understanding is that the U.S. has signaled to the Taliban that it would be open to talks if two conditions are met: that American detainee Mark Frerichs be released and that schools be reopened to girls. 

A State Department spokesperson told Axios those were "two key priorities of ours" and that "a lack of progress will hinder improvement in our relationship with the Taliban."

Khalilzad notes that even if relations do improve, negotiating with the Taliban will be sensitive politically. 

Worth noting: Khalilzad says the harboring of al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri by at least some elements of the Taliban was a "clear violation" of the Doha Agreement, which he negotiated and signed in 2020. 

He also notes that the sudden Taliban takeover last August left the sides without a clear roadmap for implementing some aspects of the deal.

Meanwhile, Ghani used one of his first interviews from exile in the UAE to blame Khalilzad for the fall of Kabul. Speaking to Axios, Khalilzad calls the comments "unfortunate" and questions how much "self-reflection" Ghani has done. 

Go deeper... One year on: Afghanistan in anguish

Interview: Former U.S. envoy Khalilzad on leaving Afghanistan to the Taliban

"The president thought we might get stuck there."

Khalilzad (L) alongside then-Taliban political leader Abdul Ghani Baradar at the signing of the Doha Accords in 2020. Photo: Giuseppe Cacace/AFP via Getty

Afghanistan

World

Former President Trump said Monday that the "temperature has to be brought down" amid a surge in threats to federal law enforcement after the search warrant at Trump's Mar-a-Lago residence.

But, but, but: Trump also reiterated his attacks on the FBI over the investigation, saying that Americans are "not going to stand for another scam." 

"People are so angry at what is taking place," Trump told Fox News, adding that his aides offered the Department of Justice "whatever we can do to help," but has not heard back from them on the offer. 

"There has never been a time like this where law enforcement has been used to break into the house of a former president of the United States, and there is tremendous anger in the country — at a level that has never been seen before, other than during very perilous times," Trump said.

The DOJ did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment. 

The big picture: Trump's remarks come one week after the FBI executed a search warrant on Trump's Florida residence as part of the DOJ's investigation into Trump's handling of presidential records.

The FBI and Department of Homeland Security confirmed Sunday that they issued an unclassified joint intelligence bulletin last week warning of a spike in threats to federal law enforcement after the search.

Since the FBI searched Trump's Florida residence last Monday, according to the bulletin, threats have been coming in "primarily online and across multiple platforms," Politico, CBS News and other outlets reported.

Go deeper: Judge unseals warrant and inventory related to Mar-a-Lago search

Trump: "Temperature has to be brought down" after Mar-a-Lago search

At the same time, Trump reiterated his attacks on the FBI, saying Americans are "not going to stand for another scam."

Former U.S. President Donald Trump leaves Trump Tower to meet with New York Attorney General Letitia James for a civil investigation on August 10, 2022 in New York City

Former President Trump leaves Trump Tower to meet with New York Attorney General Letitia James for a civil investigation on Aug. 10 in New York City. Photo: James Devaney/GC Images

Donald Trump

2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

Politics & Policy

Counties expected to experience heat indices above 125°F by 2053

Note: Shaded counties are those that will, on average, have 0.5 days or more at or above a 125F° heat index in 2053; Data: First Street Foundation; Map: Axios Visuals 

A new study reveals the emergence of an "extreme heat belt" from Texas to Illinois, where the heat index could reach 125°F at least one day a year by 2053. 

The big picture: In just 30 years, climate change will cause the Lower 48 states to be a far hotter and more precarious place to be during the summer. 

The findings come from a hyperlocal analysis of current and future extreme heat events published Monday by the nonprofit First Street Foundation. 

The new report is unique for examining current and future heat risks down to the property level across the country, and joins similar risk analyses First Street has completed for flooding and wildfires. 

As average temperatures increase due to human-driven greenhouse gas emissions, mainly from the burning of fossil fuels for energy, instances of extreme heat are forecast to escalate. 

This report makes clear where households will be vulnerable to what would now be considered almost unheard-of heat indices, which show how the air feels from the combination of air temperature and relative humidity.  

Threat Level: The report, which is based on First Street's peer reviewed heat model, shows that the number of Americans currently exposed to "extreme heat," defined as having a maximum heat index of greater than 125°F, is just 8 million. 

However, due to the anticipated warming during the next three decades, that number is expected to balloon to 107 million people, an increase of 13 times over 30 years. 

The developing "Extreme Heat Belt" forms a region of vulnerability from northern Texas to Illinois, and includes the cities of St. Louis, Kansas City, Memphis, Tulsa and Chicago. 

By 2030, some coastal areas in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic may also experience days with a heat index above 125°F, the report found. 

Zoom in: The report shows a country that will have to grapple with the effects of increased heat exposure nearly everywhere, though there will be distinctions based on geography. 

For example, the study finds that in 2053, the West will have the highest chance for long durations with "local hot days," which are days that exceed the temperatures typically experienced for a particular area.

The Gulf and Southeast will see the highest chances and longest duration of exposure to what are termed "dangerous days," with a heat index greater than 100°F, the report found. 

Between the lines: The states likely to see the greatest growth in dangerous days are Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri and Florida, First Street's analysis found. 

The counties with the largest changes in dangerous days between 2023 and 2053 are mainly located in Florida, led by the populous areas of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties. 

The report shows how the characteristics of heat waves may change in the near future. Many spots currently see more than 20 straight days with heat indices above 100°F. However by 2053,  such streaks could be as many as 74 consecutive days, the report states. 

The study also sheds light on cooling demand driven by the increasingly hot conditions, including cooling-driven increases in carbon emissions, which would aggravate warming further. 

And Texas, Florida, California, Ohio and Missouri constitute the top 5 states with the biggest cooling demand-related uptick in CO2 emissions between now and 2053, the report shows. 

Meanwhile... The U.S. is already seeing the clear fingerprints of human-caused global warming on extreme heat events. Last month, for example, the country's nighttime lows were the warmest on record for any month. 

Unusually hot overnight temperatures during heat waves increase the risk to public health of heat-related illness. 

In addition, the number of warm temperature records outnumbered the cold temperature records by a ratio of nearly eight-to-one. 

What's next: Communities are innovating to reduce the impacts of extreme heat and put in place better heat action plans, among other climate resilience steps.

Heat waves around the world are connected, scientists say

Global warming sharply escalated the risk and severity of the UK heat wave: study

An "Extreme Heat Belt" will soon emerge in the U.S., study warns

The country is already seeing the impacts of hotter, more widespread heat waves.

Climate change

Extreme weather

Breaking climate science and policy coverage as extreme weather events reshape communities. Keep tabs on the race to a low carbon economy, which may be bumpy as governments, climate tech startups and major oil and gas companies race to find their niche amid the changing energy landscape.

Energy & Climate

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Science

One year after the U.S. withdrew and the Taliban retook control of Afghanistan, the country remains a nation in anguish. 

The big picture: The Afghan people have borne the brunt of a collapsed economy, deepening humanitarian crisis and deteriorating human rights situation.

Flashback: The Taliban began retaking parts of the country as the U.S.-led coalition began its exit a year ago. By Aug. 15, 2021 — far earlier than the U.S.  expected or had planned for — Kabul was back in the hands of the group that had ruled with a brutal grip in the 1990s. 

U.S. forces were left scrambling to secure the Kabul airport as they hastily worked to evacuate U.S. citizens and Afghans who had aided its efforts over the previous 20 years. An ISIS-K suicide bombing outside the airport left more than 170 Afghans and 13 U.S. troops dead. 

In the year since the withdrawal, life for most of the 40 million Afghans in the country has in many ways only gotten worse.

As of Aug. 15, 2021, "the Afghanistan we knew was gone and it wasn't going to come back," says Obaidullah Baheer, a lecturer at the American University in Kabul. 

Over the last year, the country's economy has imploded, Axios' Felix Salmon writes. 

The Afghan government's 2022 budget is down over 60% from its 2020 level. Prior to 2021, the country was reliant on foreign aid for 75% of public spending.

The U.S. decision to freeze billions of dollars in foreign reserves belonging to Afghanistan's central bank has left the bank incapable of carrying out many of its essential functions. 

Additionally, sanctions on the Taliban have led many banks and other financial institutions outside of the country "to restrict or block the processing of most transactions involving Afghan bank accounts," according to Human Rights Watch.

Basic household goods inflation is at 52% year-on-year and per capita income is down to about $375 per year, its lowest level in over a decade.

A view from the market area in Mandawi street in Afghan capital Kabul on January 28, 2022. 

A view from the market area in Mandawi street in Afghan capital Kabul on Jan. 28. Photo:  Bilal Guler/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

An economy in peril, a severe drought and other factors have left about 24 million Afghans — more than half the country's population —  in need of humanitarian assistance, according to the UN. 

Nearly 20 million people face acute food insecurity, and tens of thousands are facing "catastrophic" levels of hunger. 

At least 1.1 million Afghan children are expected to suffer from the most severe form of malnutrition this year.

2, a volunteer carries aid being received from the International Organization for Migration (IOM) for recent earthquake affected people in the Afghan-Dubai village of Spera district in Khost province

A volunteer carries aid from the International Organization for Migration (IOM) for victims of a devastating earthquake in the Afghan-Dubai village of Spera district in Khost province on June 26. Photo: Sahel Arman/AFP via Getty Images

Aid groups say their biggest challenge over the last year has not been security concerns, but a shortfall in funding compounded by the fact much of the world's attention turned to Ukraine following Russia's invasion in February. 

An aid appeal for Afghanistan at the UN in March raised just over half of the requested $4.4 billion.

"The economic withdrawal [in Afghanstan] that followed the military withdrawal was pretty immediate," David Miliband, president of the International Rescue Committee tells Axios' Laurin-Whitney Gottbrath. 

"The plea of our staff members and their families is very simple: 'You promised not to forget us. Don't forget us,'" Miliband says. 

The Taliban promised the world they had changed, especially on human rights. 

A year later, the group's promises remain largely unfilled. Schools are still closed to most girls and young women after sixth grade.

The reasons given for the ban range from religious to cultural to technical, but "whatever it is, it's harming Afghanistan more than it is harming anyone else," Baheer says.

Women also face several restrictions reminiscent of the crackdown on freedoms they faced during the last time the Taliban ruled. 

Members of Afghanistan's Powerful Women Movement

Women in Kabul protest restrictions placed on women by the Talilban. Photo: Wakil Kohsar/AFP via Getty Images

At the same time, Taliban officials have cracked down on the media, and human rights groups have documented arbitrary arrests and summary executions of dissidents. 

One year on: Afghanistan in anguish

On Aug. 15, 2021, "the Afghanistan we knew was gone and it wasn't going to come back."

Axios

Monday's top stories

Interview: Former U.S. envoy Khalilzad on leaving Afghanistan to the Taliban

Trump: "Temperature has to be brought down" after Mar-a-Lago search

An "Extreme Heat Belt" will soon emerge in the U.S., study warns

One year on: Afghanistan in anguish

Learning spaces, wellness rooms, nature trails. This is the K-12 school of the future

Afghanistan withdrawal began Biden's political slide

FBI and DHS warn of spike in threats to law enforcement after Trump search

More U.S. lawmakers visit Taiwan after Pelosi trip

Colorado River at drought tipping point

Trump calls on FBI to return "privileged" documents seized at Mar-a-Lago