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National

Early redistricting wins for Democrats are collapsing across the map, deepening the party's fears of a rout in November's midterm elections.

What's happening: Courts struck down some of Dems' biggest gains, including in New York — where the GOP could win up to 11 total House seats in a red wave, according to the Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman.

Party heavyweights — including House Judiciary Chair Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.) and House Oversight Chair Carolyn Maloney (D-N.Y.) — will now be pitted against each other in contentious primaries. 

Republicans are licking their chops at a Florida map that could allow them to pick up an extra four seats.

The big picture: Dems were already at a huge disadvantage for the midterms — with bare congressional majorities, dismal approval ratings for President Biden, and historical trends favoring the party out of power.

Gerrymandering opportunities in New York, Maryland and Illinois — along with favorable court actions in Alabama, Ohio and Pennsylvania — had given Democrats some cause to celebrate.

That optimism is now unraveling: “The legal setbacks and losses Democrats have suffered in the last three months have been staggering,” Wasserman says.

Redistricting sausage-making in Jefferson City, Mo. Photo: David A. Lieb/AP

Zoom in: Democrats' original plans in New York could have knocked out half of the eight GOP-held seats and boosted the party's 19-member delegation to 22.

Instead, Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y), chair of the House Democrats' campaign arm, will run in a district that includes his home — but is mostly represented by Black freshman Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-N.Y.). Maloney's decision has angered many in the caucus.

In a twist, Jones will avoid that primary by running in a different redrawn district — facing off against former New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, among others. 

The other side: National Republican Redistricting Trust president Adam Kincaid told Axios the outcomes have been "an improvement on the map that was struck down," but contends the map still "heavily favors Democrats." 

Zoom out: In Maryland, a state judge tossed a map that would have endangered the state's only House Republican, Rep. Andy Harris. In the approved map, Harris is safe and Rep. David Trone (D-Md.) is in a highly competitive district.

Democratic Gov. Tony Evers managed to veto Republicans' maps in Wisconsin, but the court-approved maps submitted by Evers still favor the GOP.

Democrats also might have seen gerrymandering opportunities in Virginia and Colorado, but those states established independent redistricting commissions that focused more on competitiveness.

Between the lines: At the same time that some courts thought favorable to Democrats killed blue gerrymanders, Republican gerrymanders have managed to stand in other states — including Florida, Kansas, and Ohio.

Gov. Ron DeSantis' aggressive map in Florida is now seen as likely to stick, potentially allowing Republicans to pick up four extra seats.

A GOP-drawn gerrymander has survived in Kansas, despite a lower court ruling previously rejecting the map. Missouri also finalized its own maps heavily favoring Republicans.

In Ohio, GOP redistricting commissioners have essentially ignored repeated state Supreme Court orders to substantially redraw their gerrymandered maps, which could hand Republicans one extra seat while knocking out two Democrats.

Yes, but: If Democrats lose the House in November, it won't be purely because of redistricting. And some Democrats think they've managed to secure maps that could give them more opportunities to flip seats down the road.

"There's enough democratic DNA in the maps. There are enough competitive seats that we can win ... that we are still competitive for the decade," National Democratic Redistricting Committee president Kelly Ward Burton told Axios.

"That is different than what [Republicans] wanted. And it's different than last decade."

Plus, Democrats held onto favorable maps in Illinois, Nevada, New Mexico and Oregon, and commissions worked in their favor in states like California and New Jersey. Courts also blocked GOP gerrymanders in the key states of North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

Democrats' redistricting nightmare

The party was already at a huge disadvantage for the midterms.

Illustration of a United States map as a puzzle 

Redistricting

Politics & Policy

The first shipment of Nestlé baby formula delivered to the U.S. to help alleviate the critical shortage arrived in Indiana on Sunday.

Why it matters: National Economic Council director Brian Deese told CNN's "State of the Union" Sunday the shipment will account for 15% of the need for specialty medical grade formula. More flights are coming to ease the shortage, Deese said.

The big picture: The imports from Europe, dubbed "Operation Fly Formula" are the latest effort to ease a shortage that has caused panic among millions of parents and caregivers.

In total, the shipments will transport the equivalent of up to 1.5 million 8-ounce bottles of baby formula into the U.S. market. 

The three formulas chosen are hypoallergenic formulas for children with cow’s milk protein allergies, per the fact sheet.

Zoom in: The shipment that landed Sunday consists of 132 pallets of Alfamino Infant and Alfamino Junior formula. A follow-up shipment of 114 pallets of Gerber Good Start Extensive HA formula is expected "in the coming days," per a Nestlé fact sheet.

What they're saying: "Our first Operation Fly Formula shipment lands in the U.S. today," Nestlé CEO Mark Schneider said in a statement earlier Sunday.

"While more is on the way, our hope is that this progress gives concerned parents a little more comfort to know we are committed to doing all we can to support them during this time," he added.

"Our team is working around the clock to get safe formula to everyone who needs it," President Biden tweeted alongside photos of the baby formula cargo, which he noted weighed over 70,000 pounds.

Go deeper: Why is there a baby formula shortage and what can be done about it

Nestlé baby formula shipment lands in the U.S.

The shipment will account for 15% of the need for specialty medical grade formula.

U.S. airmen load pallets with baby formula 

U.S. airmen load pallets with baby formula which arrived by three trucks from Switzerland for the United States at Ramstein American Air Force base in Germany on May 21. Photo: Thomas Lohnes/Getty Images

Food

Top stories & latest news on the Federal Reserve, real-time data, plus the biggest shifts happening in the U.S. and global economy.

Economy

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

Donald Trump will headline a fundraiser for Rep. Liz Cheney's Republican primary challenger this week, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: With competitive GOP primaries around the corner, Trump has ramped up retaliatory efforts against Republicans he considers internal enemies.

Trump's fundraiser for Wyoming Republican Harriet Hageman is his latest effort to undercut Cheney, who voted to impeach the former president last year and is leading efforts to investigate the Capitol siege.

What's happening: The fundraiser will take place prior to a rally in Casper, Wyoming, on Saturday, according to details on the Republican fundraising platform WinRed.

A $500 contribution gets donors access to a VIP reception. For $15,000, they can get a photo with Trump.

The donations go to Save Wyoming, a new joint fundraising committee benefitting Hageman's campaign and Trump's Save America leadership PAC.

Between the lines: Cheney has a huge cash advantage in the nomination fight.

She was sitting on nearly $7 million in cash at the end of the first quarter of 2022, the most recent reporting period, compared to just over $1 million for Hageman.

Trump has tried to help close that gap with a $500,000 contribution to a super PAC backing Hageman.

The big picture: Cheney, who tops the list of Trump's intra-party antagonists, is nonetheless facing an uphill climb to the Republican nomination in August's primary.

Her race is one of a handful the former president has focused on as a way of purging the party of its few remaining Trump critics.

His political operation has also steered millions to efforts to unseat Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, who's facing off against former Sen. David Purdue in a Republican primary on Tuesday.

Trump to fundraise for Cheney challenger

The race is one of a handful the former president has focused on as a way of purging the party of its few remaining Trump critics.

Congresswoman Liz Cheney testifies at a House Rules Committee hearing.

Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) and Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.), chairman of the House select committee investigating the Jan. 6 riot. Photo: Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call via Getty Images

Liz Cheney

Wheat price per bushel

Data: Chicago Board of Trade, FactSet; Chart: Simran Parwani/Axios

Bread is one of the more crucial ingredients in maintaining world stability — and it's getting dangerously expensive.

Why it matters: As food prices rise around the world due to the war, extreme weather and inflation, more countries are putting these kinds of export controls in place — but that only exacerbates the issue.

At least 43 such protectionist measures have been implemented since the Russian invasion, according to data cited by the New York Times earlier this month. 

These include restrictions put in place by Russia and its ally, Belarus, along with Indonesia's ban on palm oil exports and China's prohibition on fertilizer exports.

Driving the news: Wheat prices surged to near record-high levels Monday after India said it would ban exports as it deals with an extended, climate-change-driven heat wave. 

What they're saying: "These measures threaten to further tighten global supplies, and will create price pressure on food as we head further into 2022," Kelly Goughary, a senior research analyst at Gro Intelligence, tells Axios. 

Goughary hasn't seen this level of export controls in her 15 years in the industry.

State of play: Russia's invasion of Ukraine cut off exports from that region — responsible for more than a quarter of the world's supply — and sent buyers scrambling to find other source countries, like India. 

India is the ninth-largest wheat exporter in the world, according to USDA stats.

Initially, Indian officials said the country would increase wheat production, before reversing course on Saturday.

Zoom out: There are few commodities more important than wheat, as Axios wrote in March. Rising prices for bread have led to social unrest throughout history from the French and Russian revolutions to the Arab spring. 

Over the weekend, bread prices sparked protests in Iran, Reuters reported.

What to watch: More headwinds in the wheat market are coming, Goughary said. There are issues with drought in France that could drive up prices, while production in the U.S. is down. 

The U.S. is not a big exporter of wheat because it's too costly to ship overseas, but it's a supplier of "last resort," she added. 

Editor's note: This story originally published on May 17.

Food protectionism is on the rise

More countries are putting these kinds of export controls in place — but that only exacerbates the issue

President Biden on Sunday said that the recent spread of monkeypox in at least 12 countries are "something that everybody should be concerned about."

Why it matters: These are the president's first public remarks about the recent outbreaks, which include a confirmed case in Massachusetts, a person who tested positive in New York and roughly a half dozen other cases being monitored by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

“It is a concern in that if it were to spread it would be consequential," Biden told reporters at Osan Air Base in South Korea, where he met with troops before heading to Japan on the next leg of his Asia trip.

The president is receiving regular updates from his health team on the outbreaks, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said on Sunday.

Sullivan told the traveling pool that the United States has vaccines "available to be deployed."

Zoom out:  Europe has seen a recent spread of monkeypox, with cases found in Belgium, Italy, London and northern Ireland, Portugal and Spain. Australia and Canada also reported cases.

The spread is not likely to cause a global pandemic like COVID did.

What we know about the new monkeypox outbreak

WHO concerned monkeypox could accelerate during summer months

Biden: "Everybody should be concerned" about monkeypox spread

"it is a concern in the sense that if it were to spread, it’s consequential," the president said.

President Joe Biden speaks to media before boarding Air Force One prior to departing Osan Air Base in Pyeongtaek on May 22 as he travels to Japan on the second leg of his visit to Asia. Photo: Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

Monkeypox

The U.S. health system faces critical questions about cost, access and equity. Technological advances and new discoveries about diseases like cancer and Alzheimer’s are transforming patient care and reshaping public health.

Health

Conflicts, policies and powers are intersecting and shaping the world. Breaking news and analysis of national security, foreign policy and global crises.

World

Jim Obergefell, whose lawsuit led to the nationwide legalization of same-sex marriage, says he feels a new urgency and clarity about his role in the LBGTQ community since a leaked Supreme Court draft decision previewed the end of Roe v. Wade.

Why it matters: Obergefell and other advocates fear that beyond abortion rights, overturning Roe could threaten legal protections for same-sex marriage, interracial marriage, contraception and even intimate sexual conduct by consenting adults. 

"My job is to help people understand just how afraid they should be," Obergefell told Axios.

Driving the news: Same-sex marriage has been the law of the land for nearly seven years, since the high court's landmark 2015 ruling in Obergefell v. Hodges.

But some advocates now fear that the interpretation of the 14th Amendment in the court's draft Roe decision could also call into question other rights the court has guaranteed under the 14th Amendment, including same-sex marriage.

What they're saying: Obergefell said he's fielded calls and texts left and right since Politico obtained and published the court's draft opinion.

Some are seeking comfort. He said he told one of his former fellow plaintiffs, "That isn't my job right now."

If Obergefell v. Hodges were overturned, he said, "We'd once again be in a world where the most significant relationship of a person's life—and the protections, the dignity, the rights, everything that come comes with that relationship—can disappear just by crossing a border within our nation."

What's next: Obergefell is running for a seat in Ohio's state legislature, seeking to challenge incumbent GOP state Rep. D.J. Swearingen in a conservative district that includes his hometown of Sandusky. Swearigen won against a Democratic challenger by around 15 points last cycle.

Jim Obergefell prepares for another fight

"My job is to help people understand just how afraid they should be."

Axios

Sunday's top stories

Democrats' redistricting nightmare

Nestlé baby formula shipment lands in the U.S.

Trump to fundraise for Cheney challenger

Food protectionism is on the rise

Biden: "Everybody should be concerned" about monkeypox spread

Jim Obergefell prepares for another fight

Extreme weather plagues U.S., from Colorado snowstorm to East Coast heat

Polling shows America in the middle on abortion

U.S., South Korea to consider expanded military exercises

Indigenous women fear for their safety in a post-Roe America