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National

The Trump campaign told the AP on Sunday that it raised more than $30 million in the first quarter of 2019, bringing its total cash on hand to $40.8 million.

Why it matters: The AP notes that this is "an unprecedented war chest for an incumbent president this early in a campaign," especially with the Republican National Committee also raising $45.8 million in the first quarter — bringing the pro-Trump effort's total cash on hand to $82 million. 99% of donations were $200 or less, with an average contribution of $34.26.

The big picture: The massive haul can be attributed largely to the fact that Trump launched his re-election campaign just hours after his inauguration. At this point in the 2012 campaign, President Obama had just $2 million in cash on hand.

Trump's first quarter fundraising total is more than the top two Democratic candidates combined, though not all of them have released their figures yet ahead of the April 15 reporting deadline. Sen. Bernie Sanders raised $18.2 million in the first quarter of 2019, while Beto O'Rourke raised $9.4 million.

Go deeper: Track every candidate's Q1 fundraising totals

Trump campaign raises $30 million in first quarter of 2019

At this point in the 2012 campaign, President Obama had less than $2 million in cash on hand.

Politics

Donald Trump campaign

2020 election

2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

Politics & Policy

In a closed-door meeting with members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee last month, King Abdullah II of Jordan said the White House had given him zero visibility into the most fraught part of their peace plan: how it proposes to divide Israeli and Palestinian territory.

Behind the scenes: The king seemed dissatisfied with the level of consultation and was pessimistic about the plan's prospects, two sources in the room told Axios. King Abdullah has privately told people he is frustrated by the fact that despite having numerous meetings with senior Trump administration officials, he's never been given any detail about the core political issues, in which Jordan has a huge interest.

Why it matters: Any U.S. peace plan between the Israelis and Palestinians will also impact Jordan, which borders the West Bank, has a majority Palestinian population and has a special status in Jerusalem's holy sites according to the 1994 Israel-Jordan peace treaty.

The sources who were in the room with King Abdullah told Axios that he meets with the committee almost every time he's in D.C., and he usually speaks with caution. But he seemed less so this time, a source in the room said.

"The king made it clear they have not been talking to him about it. He seemed to be critical and dismissive of the efforts," one of the sources said.

Another source in the room said King Abdullah "gave the impression that it was more of an economic deal rather than a peace deal."

A Jordanian official with knowledge of the discussion told Axios: "His Majesty was asked about the plan and said he did not yet see it and therefore cannot comment. He also believes that an economic plan without a political one is not sufficient."

A senior White House official responded: "We have met and spoken with leaders throughout the region, including King Abdullah, to share ideas and solicit their thoughts."

"Since the beginning, we have been clear that this is not just an economic plan. We are taking very seriously both aspects of this, the political, which deals with all the core issues, and the economic. We understand that if the political aspect does not work, the economic aspect will not create peace."

"But at the same time, the political aspect will not succeed without a significant economic plan to enhance Palestinian lives and the lives of others in the region."

Between the lines: Sources with direct knowledge told Axios that only five or six people in the entire U.S. government have seen the political side of the plan, making it one of few secrets the White House has been able to keep.

During Jared Kushner's recent tour of the region, he briefed Arab leaders on the economic side of the plan, but revealed nothing about the proposed division of land, the status of Jerusalem or whether the plan would support the creation of a Palestinian state.

The big picture: The White House's Arab partners who will need to sell a peace deal remain in the dark about its political dimensions.

These Arab partners — including the Saudis and Emiratis — have also complained that the Trump administration has taken steps favoring the Israelis and frustrating the Arab world, including moving the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem and recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights.

What's next: The White House peace plan isn't expected to be public before mid-June, and it's unclear if the White House will reveal the whole thing at once. Some on the team, according to sources in touch with them, hope to roll out the economic side first.

Inside the room: King of Jordan left in the dark on Trump's peace plan

Jordan has a huge interest in the political components of Trump's forthcoming Middle East peace plan.

Jordan's King Abdullah II speaks to President Donald Trump during a White House visit  in June 2018. 

Jordan's King Abdullah II speaks to President Donald Trump during a White House visit in June 2018. Photo: Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images

Mideast peace

World

Donald Trump

Much of Washington has spent the weekend on pins and needles preparing for this week's release of the Mueller report. But in one particular quarter, people seem quite relaxed.

Behind the scenes: Two of the president's top advisers who will be handling the response to Mueller’s report were watching the Masters when I called them about it this weekend. By all accounts, the president himself is also taking a fairly blasé approach. The subject has barely come up, if at all, in recent senior staff meetings, according to two sources with direct knowledge. And in recent calls to aides and allies, Trump has barely mentioned it.

Rudy Giuliani, the president's lawyer, told me Trump hasn't seen the report. And senior White House aides have scant details about it, telling me they could only guess when exactly it will come out and how much of it will be redacted. Most expect Attorney General Bill Barr to release the report mid-week.

"You're looking at it and determining what is the political optic of it; it's not a legal optic here, it's political," one of the president's advisers told me. "Until we see the report, it's very hard to speculate about what we'll be dealing with mid-week."

Another lawyer who has dealt with Mueller's team said, "My guess is, it's probably going to be, when it's put all together by Mueller's team, it's going to look more like obstruction to the casual eye than it might be legally."

"I'm also very interested to find out what it is that Mueller said about why he was not going to draw a conclusion" about obstruction, the lawyer said.

What's next: The president's outside legal team will not read the report alongside his White House lawyers. Rather, the two groups of attorneys plan to go through it separately. A senior Trump adviser said the two groups will write separate responses — with the outside response likely more aggressive than the White House's institutional response.

Giuliani told the Wall Street Journal that Trump's outside lawyers have prepared a counter-report that is currently 140 pages but they're trying to whittle it down to 50 pages. Giuliani told the Journal they expect to focus their defense mostly on the topic of obstruction of justice and will largely ignore collusion.

"If we've gone from two years of roaring 'indict and impeach' to now a more resigned 'embarrass and harass' the president ... then no wonder many Americans demand answers as to how this all started and who was involved," Kellyanne Conway told me, foreshadowing what we are likely to hear from Trump's top aides this week.

Another source involved in Trump's response told me they haven't decided what they will release in response to the Mueller report. "We have multiple documents," the source said. "No decision on release until we know what we are responding to. May not release anything."

Behind the scenes: The White House prepares for Mueller week

"It's not a legal optic here, it's political," one of Trump's advisers said.

Robert Mueller on a calendar illustration

Mueller report

Conflicts, policies and powers are intersecting and shaping the world. Breaking news and analysis of national security, foreign policy and global crises.

Pete Buttigieg officially launched his 2020 campaign in South Bend, Indiana, on Sunday, declaring: "We live in a moment that compels us each to act. The forces changing our country today are tectonic — forces that help to explain what made this current presidency even possible. That's why this time it's not just about winning an election. It's about winning an era."

Pete Buttigieg

Go deeper: Everything you need to know about 2020 candidate Pete Buttigieg

Pete Buttigieg formally launches 2020 presidential campaign

"[T]his time it's not just about winning an election — it's about winning an era."

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Sunday demanded President Trump remove a video he tweeted Friday that shows footage from 9/11 spliced in between comments from Muslim Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), claiming that the president's "hateful and inflammatory rhetoric creates real danger."

"Following the President’s tweet, I spoke with the Sergeant-at-Arms to ensure that Capitol Police are conducting a security assessment to safeguard Congresswoman Omar, her family and her staff. They will continue to monitor and address the threats she faces. The President’s words weigh a ton, and his hateful and inflammatory rhetoric creates real danger. President Trump must take down his disrespectful and dangerous video."

Catch up quick: The video included remarks from a recent speech Omar gave to the Council on American-Islamic Relations, in which she said some people used 9/11 to  advocate stripping away civil liberties from Muslim Americans. 

“CAIR was founded after 9/11 because they recognized that some people did something and that all of us were starting to lose access to our civil liberties."

The video Trump tweeted shows the Twin Towers and the Pentagon on fire on 9/11, interlaced with Omar's shortened quote: "some people did something." Conservative news outlets and some Republican officials have focused on that quote, claiming she's downplaying the terrorist attacks that killed more than 3,000 people. 

Many of the 2020 Democratic presidential candidates have come to Omar’s defense and claimed that Trump is inciting violence. House Judiciary Chairman Jerrold Nadler (D-N.Y.) said on Sunday that President Trump "has no moral authority to be talking about 9/11." 

Pelosi asks Capitol Police to "safeguard" Ilhan Omar after Trump 9/11 tweet

"The President’s words weigh a ton, and his hateful and inflammatory rhetoric creates real danger."

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) 

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Rep. Ilhan Omar. Photo: Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images

Ilhan Omar

Early on in the January government shutdown, there was a meeting in the White House Situation Room between President Trump, then-Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen, administration staff and congressional leaders from both parties.

Behind the scenes: Nielsen was trying to explain the chaos at the border. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi kept interrupting her, saying she thought the Trump administration was manufacturing the crisis and distorting statistics, according to four sources who were in the room. 

So Nielsen, visibly frustrated with Pelosi, turned to Kevin McAleenan, then the head of Customs and Border Protection (last week, Trump gave him her job). He was sitting along the wall with the other staff, behind the main table.

Nielsen asked McAleenan to dig into the figures and explain some of the intricacies of the situation. "She was like, 'You don't have to listen to me because I am the president's DHS secretary; listen to the career professional,'" one source recalled.

Pelosi interjected that McAleenan was also one of the president's people.

Then Trump said of McAleenan: "He's an Obama guy!" 

McAleenan replied quietly that he was a career guy before becoming a political appointee under Trump.

A senior White House official said Trump "was trying to say Kevin has credibility on the issue and worked in another administration."

And Pelosi spokesman Drew Hammill responded: "It is a statement of fact that this administration has used false statistics in an effort to support their anti-immigrant policies that are creating a massive humanitarian challenge at the border."

Between the lines: It's a bit ironic that Trump's pick to make DHS more aggressive is someone he called "an Obama guy."

Editor's note: This post has been corrected to reflect the fact that McAleenan was the commissioner of Customs and Border Protection (not Nielsen's deputy).

Trump on his future DHS head Kevin McAleenan: "He's an Obama guy!"

Trump called Kirstjen Nielsen's then-deputy "an Obama guy" during a government shutdown dispute.

Kevin McAleenan

Nike released a new commercial on Sunday following Tiger Woods' victory at the Masters tournament in Augusta, Georgia. It's the legendary golfer's first major title in 11 years.

Tiger Woods

Nike releases new Tiger Woods commercial after Masters win

Business

Capital

Axios Capital

Donald Trump wants to politicize the Fed. One White House source explained his thinking to the WSJ:

"Mr. Trump has selected candidates like Messrs. [Stephen] Moore and [Herman] Cain in recent weeks because he believes they have the interests of his presidency in mind, the person said.

Describing Mr. Trump’s views, the person said, 'I want people who care about me and my presidency and economic growth…because that’s important to the health of the country and his re-election chances.'”

The big picture: Ken Rogoff, one of the most respected technocrats in the economics profession, warned this week that Trump is effectively pushing at an open door. Giving a lecture at the IMF this week under the auspices of the G30, Rogoff warned that the world might be facing "the beginning of the end of central bank independence." None of his four main reasons had anything to do with Trump.

Central banks have become victims of their own success. Historically, the main argument for central banks to be independent has been that without independence, inflation will return. But inflation is below target in nearly every major economy, and long-term inflation expectations have never been lower. No one is worried about inflation anymore, and without that worry, there's little need to keep central banks independent.

Central banks also exist to stabilize the broad economy by cutting rates when it looks like we might be heading into a recession. But they can't effectively do that today, since rates are already so close to zero.

Central banks have often been needed in a crisis, partly because they're home to a lot of institutional knowledge and expertise. But with rates very close to zero, that knowledge and expertise can just as well reside in the executive branch. In the next crisis, fiscal policy, rather than monetary policy, is going to be the first line of defense.

An increasing consensus that national indebtedness can and should be greatly expanded has taken a lot of macroeconomic work away from central bankers and given it instead to finance ministries.

Rogoff's proposed solution to all these problems is for central banks to embrace negative interest rates as a policy tool, with a system of subsidies that prevents regular depositors losing money in their checking accounts. "The countries that do it first will be glad they did it," he said. The central banks that don't? They risk losing their independence entirely.

The bottom line: Central bank independence is almost never enshrined in a country's constitution; it can be lost easily and needs to be fought for. Politicians now have the wind at their back if they want to take back control of their central banks. But, says Rogoff, "countries that do that, including the U.S., if it chooses to go down that path, will live to regret it."

We're closer than ever to a political Fed

Ken Rogoff, one of the most respected technocrats in economics, warns that Trump is effectively pushing at an open door.

Illustration of a giant hand in a business suit holding a marionette bank

Federal Reserve

President Trump told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during their meeting at the White House on March 26 that if Israel doesn't limit its ties with China, security cooperation with the U.S. could be reduced, according to Israeli officials.

Why it matters: The Trump administration and the Netanyahu government are aligned on virtually every issue, but relations with China have emerged as a main point of contention. The Trump administration has already asked the Israeli government several times to limit its ties with China, and the fact that Trump himself raised it with Netanyahu indicates the White House may be growing impatient.

Background: In January, national security adviser John Bolton visited Israel and privately raised concerns about Israel's China ties with Netanyahu. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has also privately raised it with Netanyahu several times in the last 6 months, and he even publicly warned recently that "intelligence sharing [with Israel] might have to be reduced."

Netanyahu told Bolton and Pompeo that his security Cabinet is about to pass a decision on forming a new government mechanism that will monitor Chinese investments in Israel. The security Cabinet held two meetings on the issue in the last several months, but still hasn’t come to a decision due to disagreement between Israeli government agencies.

During the March 26 meeting, which took place minutes after Trump signed the presidential proclamation recognizing the Golan Heights as part of Israel, Trump was the one to raise the China issue. Trump didn't set an ultimatum or threaten Netanyahu, but he wanted to know the status of the steps the prime minister had promised Bolton and Pompeo. 

Israeli officials told me Trump said he was concerned that the Chinese had won several major infrastructure projects — like the new port in Haifa, where the U.S. Navy's 6th Fleet has operated for decades. Israeli officials said the U.S. is also concerned about Chinese telecommunication companies like Huawei being involved in the future of building 5G infrastructure in Israel. 

According to Israeli officials, Netanyahu doesn't have a problem with pledging not to let Chinese telecom companies build Israel's 5G network. The biggest issue is the Haifa contract, since construction at the new port has already started and canceling the deal now would cause a huge crisis with China that Netanyahu is seeking to avoid.

The White House didn't dispute this account but refrained from commenting. The prime minister's office told me: "The story is not true."

Trump told Netanyahu that Israel's China ties could harm security cooperation

Trump told Netanyahu that he was concerned that the Chinese had won several major infrastructure projects.

Axios

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