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National

A Republican foreign policy expert, who asked for anonymity so he could speak with brutal candor, describes the big picture American involvement in Syria — from Obama through Trump — as "a succession of failures divorced from reality."

What we're hearing: The source, who has decades of experience analyzing the region, emails Axios a devastating indictment of the U.S. Syria "strategy" — or lack thereof — under successive administrations: "The inevitable result was failure."

"Syria is a microcosm of U.S. foreign policy in general. We never had a coherent strategy beyond simplistic generalities, childishly selecting our goals based on what we wanted, not what was necessary, or even possible. The inevitable result was failure. Wobbly Assad won, powerful us lost. Rust-bucket Russia accomplished its goals, triumphant us achieved none."

"The Obama Administration bears the principal responsibility for Syria and Libya but not for Iraq and Afghanistan or the succession of failures elsewhere. Timid intervention did not work for the former; full-scale intervention did not work for the latter. "

"But the military are not miracle-workers. These failures sprang from cobbled-together strategies based on comforting illusions that have repeatedly proven not to be true, with objectives shaped not by the constraints of reality but the indulgent selection from an a la carte menu. There is little evidence that repeated failure has had a significant impact on policymakers or specialists."

"There is a price to be paid for incompetence. Few now fear us; fewer respect us. As our opponents increase in number and strength, the prospect of defeat at their hands will grow. But the more immediate result will be irrelevance."

America's MIA Syrian strategy

A Republican foreign policy expert describes American involvement in Syria as "a succession of failures divorced from reality."

Iraqi protestors burn a U.S. flag during a demonstration in Baghdad, opposing the joint Western air strikes against Syria's regime. Photo: Ahmad al-Rubaye/AFP/Getty Images

World

Syria

Politics

Conflicts, policies and powers are intersecting and shaping the world. Breaking news and analysis of national security, foreign policy and global crises.

Trump declared "Mission Accomplished!" on Saturday and administration officials are trying to distance him from George W. Bush's embarrassing declaration about the Iraq War in 2003. Officials are saying Trump only meant that the narrow mission on Friday night — of destroying Syrian chemical weapons facilities — succeeded.

The bottom line: Syrian President Bashar al-Assad looks perfectly safe in his Russo-Iranian cocoon.

The backdrop: Two stories, published in the wake of Trump's bombing, cast harsh light on the big picture in Syria:

Wall Street Journal: "Syrian armed forces on Sunday unleashed airstrikes against rebels and shelled what rescue workers said were civilian homes, demonstrating President Bashar al-Assad’s undiminished ability to wage the civil war a day after a U.S.-led missile attack."

Washington Post: "U.S.-led strikes against Syrian chemical weapons facilities prompted defiant celebrations in Damascus on Saturday as it became clear that the limited attack posed no immediate threat to President Bashar al-Assad’s hold on power and would likely have no impact on the trajectory of the Syrian war."

What's next: On CBS' "Face the Nation" today, Nikki Haley told host Margaret Brennan that the Trump administration will be imposing additional sanctions against Russia.

"Secretary Mnuchin will be announcing those on Monday if he hasn't already and they will go directly to any sort of companies that were dealing with equipment related to Assad and chemical weapons use."

What's next for Assad

Assad looks perfectly safe in his Russo-Iranian cocoon.

A man walks under a portrait of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in a street inside the Yarmuk Palestinian refugee camp in Damascus in 2015. Photo: Youssef Kawwashan/AFP/Getty Images

French President Emmanuel Macron claimed in a television interview that France has convinced President Trump that it is "necessary" to remain in Syria "long-term," according to the AFP.

Why this matters: If Trump follows through on this alleged commitment to Macron, it would be one of the biggest and most abrupt foreign policy reversals in his presidency. Trump has demanded for months — over the objections of his national security team — that his administration withdraw U.S. troops from Syria.

"Ten days ago, President Trump was saying the United States of America had a duty to disengage from Syria," said Macron, according to Agence France-Presse White House correspondent Jérôme Cartillier.

"We convinced him it was necessary to stay. I assure you, we have convinced him that it is necessary to stay for the long-term."

Trump thinks Syria is a "dump" that probably can't be fixed — though he'd be happy to let Russia try. He thinks it's a waste of lives and money and that the U.S. gets "nothing" for its involvement in Syria, according to multiple sources familiar with his thinking.

However, when Trump sees the images of gassed children, he flips in the other direction and issues missiles to Syria — as he did on Friday and last year when news reports and allied intelligence indicated Assad had used chemical weapons to murder Syrian civilians.

But, but, but: Trump's apparent reversal on Syria wouldn't be the first time he's backflipped on the foreign policy instincts he trumpeted during the campaign. Last year, Trump told his aides over and over that he wanted to get out of Afghanistan — citing the same arguments he used for Syria and previously to argue that the Iraq War was a waste of lives and money. But his national security team, led by Defense Secretary James Mattis, ultimately persuaded Trump to keep America in Afghanistan.

WH response: I've asked the White House whether it's true that Macron persuaded Trump to stay the course in Syria. We will update you when we hear back. (Though we suspect Trump may tweet before that happens!)

Trump's French flip on Syria

It would be one of the biggest and most abrupt foreign policy reversals in his presidency.

French President Emmanuel Macron and President Trump shake hands at a meeting during the UN General Assembly last year. Photo: Ludovic Marin/AFP/Getty Images

In a television interview on Sunday, French President Emmanuel Macron claimed that France has convinced President Trump that it is "necessary" to remain in Syria "long-term," per the AFP.

The backdrop: Earlier this month, the White House said the U.S. military mission in Syria was coming to a "rapid end" and focused on the complete defeat of ISIS. But that was before the suspected chemical weapon attack on April 7 by Bashar al-Assad's government, and this weekend's coordinated strikes on Syrian government targets with France and the United Kingdom.

Macron: France convinced Trump to remain in Syria "long-term"

The White House said earlier this month that the United States' mission in Syria was coming to "a rapid end."

French President Emmanuel Macron with President Trump. Photo: Ludovic Marin/AFP/Getty Images

Barbara Bush, 92, the wife of former president George H.W. Bush and mother of former president George W. Bush, will not seek additional medical treatment after a recent series of hospitalizations, choosing instead to focus on comfort care, according to a statement from her husband's office.

"Following a recent series of hospitalizations, and after consulting her family and doctors, Mrs. Bush, now age 92, has decided not to seek additional medical treatment and will instead focus on comfort care. It will not surprise those who know her that Barbara Bush has been a rock in the face of her failing health, worrying not for herself — thanks to her abiding faith — but for others. She is surrounded by a family she adores, and appreciates the many kind messages and especially the prayers she is receiving."

Barbara Bush, in "failing health," to forgo medical treatment

Former President George H.W. Bush and first lady Barbara Bush hold hands and talk.

Former President George H.W. Bush and first lady Barbara Bush hold hands and talk. Photo: Gabe Souza/Portland Press Herald via Getty Images

U.S. News

Barbara Bush

Former FBI Director James Comey tweeted on Sunday that while he mentions two presidents in his book who "help illustrate the values at the heart of ethical leadership," he includes another presidential example "as a counterpoint." 

The context: Comey's subtweet is the latest salvo in a Twitter battle between President Trump and the former FBI director. Trump took to Twitter earlier this morning to unleash on Comey, calling him, a "slimeball," "not smart!" and the "WORST FBI Director in history, by far!" 

Comey subtweets Trump: A "counterpoint" to "ethical leadership"

The Trump-Comey Twitter battle is heating up.

James Comey

2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

Politics & Policy

Russian news reports said that that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was in a "good mood" in a meeting with Russian lawmakers on Sunday, per The Washington Post, a day after the U.S. led airstrikes on three chemical weapons facilities. One Russian lawmaker reportedly described Assad as in "absolutely positive spirits."

Why it matters: There's a different narrative being touted in Syria about what happened over the weekend. Per the Post, Assad believes the strikes reveal "that Russian weapons were superior to U.S. ones," and their "limited scope...suggested that Western powers do not intend to challenge his rule." The Pentagon had a different perspective, saying on Saturday that the strikes were "precise, overwhelming, and effective."

Report: Assad was in "good mood" day after U.S. strikes

He and the Russians are touting a different narrative than the Pentagon.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in 2016. Photo: Joseph Eid/AFP/Getty Images

Mike Pompeo will inherit a State Department where only three of the 10 highest-ranking jobs are filled, and two of those jobs are being performed by people in "acting" roles, per Bloomberg.

Why it matters: If Pompeo is confirmed as the new secretary of state, he'll have a lot of work to do to raise morale at the department — an urgent task when a new international crisis could erupt at any moment.

The backstory: As Bloomberg pointed out, the vacancies are "either because staff have left, been fired or the posts were never filled. Those vacant assignments include positions overseeing the agency’s role in U.S. trade policy, stopping the spread of nuclear weapons, refugee issues and efforts to counter human trafficking."

Secretary of State-designate — Mike Pompeo (awaiting confirmation)

Secretary of State — John Sullivan (acting)

Under Secretary for Public Diplomacy & Public Affairs — Heather Nauert (acting)

Under Secretary for Political Affairs — Thomas A. Shannon, Jr. (retiring)

Deputy Secretary of State for Management & Resources — Vacant

Under Secretary for Management — Vacant

Under Secretary for Arms Control & International Security — Vacant

Under Secretary for Civilian Security, Democracy & Human Rights — Vacant

Under Secretary for Economic Growth, Energy & the Environment — Vacant

Only three of the top 10 jobs at State are filled

Pompeo would inherit a department that's badly in need of a morale boost.

Pompeo at his confirmation hearing April 12. Photo: Xinhua/Ting Shen via Getty Images

Department of State

Finish Line

Axios Finish Line

U.S. ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley said on CBS' Face the Nation that the Treasury Department will announce new sanctions against Russia tomorrow. According to Haley, the sanctions are set to "go directly to any sort of [Russian] companies that were dealing with equipment related to Assad and chemical weapons use."

 Right now [the Russians] don't have very good friends and ... the friends that they do have are causing them harm.

Nikki Haley on Russia's cooperation with Syria, Iran and Venezuela

Haley also appeared on Fox News Sunday and told host Chris Wallace that the joint strikes against Syria from the U.S., the U.K. and France "put a heavy blow into their chemical weapons program, setting them back years. I'm sure that it's gonna take them a lot to recover from it."

Nikki Haley on the Assad regime

Go deeper: Check out a map of where the airstrikes hit Syria.

"So, basically, we will watch his actions. He now dictates his life, and he dictates what happens between the United States, our allies and his regime. And so, hopefully, he has gotten the message. It was a pretty strong message. Not only did we go after their absolute strongest research facility, we went after their storage units where they hold the products, and we went after their production. So we put a heavy blow into their chemical weapons program, setting them back years. I'm sure that it's gonna take them a lot to recover from it."


Nikki Haley: New round of Russia sanctions are coming Monday

On Syria, Haley said airstrikes set Assad's chemical weapons program years.

President Trump on Twitter yesterday: "Mission Accomplished!" And this morning: 

Flashback: From the AP, the "phrase that haunted Bush": "Back in 2003, a flight suit-clad President George W. Bush stood on an aircraft carrier under a giant 'Mission Accomplished' banner and declared that 'major combat operations in Iraq have ended' — just six weeks after the invasion. But the war dragged on for many years after that." At the time, 139 Americans had died. Eventually, more than 4,400 gave their lives.

Trump on "Mission Accomplished": "Use often!"

The AP describes it as the "phrase that haunted [George W.] Bush."

Michèle Flournoy — former Under Secretary of Defense for Policy under President Obama, co-founder and managing director of WestExec Advisors, and former CEO of the Center for a New American Security — provides Axios with her analysis of the Syria strikes.

"What Trump got right: upheld the international norm against [chemical weapon] use, built international support for and participation in the strikes, sought to minimize collateral damage — Syrian, Russian, Iranian."

"What Trump got wrong: continuing to use taunting, name-calling tweets as his primary form of (un)presidential communication; failing to seriously consult Congress before deciding to launch the strikes; after more than a year in office, still no coherent Syria strategy."

An Obama alumna analyzes the Syria strikes

The former Under Secretary of Defense for Policy looks at what Trump did right and wrong.

A Syrian soldier takes a picture of the wreckage of a building described as part of the Scientific Studies and Research Centre (SSRC) compound. Photo: Louai Beshara/AFP/Getty Images

The WashPost's front page has a tough-ish review of James Comey's "A Higher Loyalty," out Tuesday — "How does Comey live up to ‘ethical leadership’ he extols?" by book critic Carlos Lozada.

The key line: "Comey cops to petty misdeeds ... But when the stakes rise, self-examination diminishes."

"Trump ... lurks in Comey’s schoolboy battles with bullies ... 'All bullies are largely the same ... They threaten the weak to feed some insecurity that rages inside them.'"

Comey, on his days battling mafia families as U.S. attorney in Manhattan: “As I found myself thrust into the Trump orbit, I once again was having flashbacks to my earlier career as a prosecutor against the Mob. The silent circle of assent. The boss in complete control. The loyalty oaths. The us-versus-them worldview. The lying about all things.”

"Comey’s own ethical leadership suffers most in the book’s treatment of his one-time boss, former attorney general Loretta Lynch."

Another key passage from Comey's book, noted by Lozada:

"I’ve prosecuted and overseen many cases involving obstruction of justice, but in this case, I am not the prosecutor. I am a witness. I have one perspective on the behavior I saw, which while disturbing and violating basic norms of ethical leadership, may fall short of being illegal."

Chris Matthews tells Axios' Mike Allen, in advance of a special he narrates at 9 tonight on MSNBC, "Headliners: James Comey":

“James Comey is the most politically significant FBI Director since J. Edgar Hoover. He may end up more important to American history than Donald Trump.”

A tougher take on Comey

The Washington Post gives Comey's new book a critical read.

Photo: Ralph Alswang/ABC via Getty Images

Axios AM

Back in December, President Trump tweeted: "After years of Comey, with the phony and dishonest Clinton investigation (and more), running the FBI, its reputation is in Tatters - worst in History! But fear not, we will bring it back to greatness."

The FBI's revenge

"[Trump] picked fights with the two institutions that have the ability to find information people want hidden."

Axios

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