Axios

A federal judge said Friday she plans to appoint a special master to investigate whether Justice and Interior Department officials misled the court about the Trump administration's plans to renovate a D.C. golf course, according to news reports.

Why it matters: The investigation could lead to professional sanctions, contempt proceedings or criminal referrals against administration officials over allegations government lawyers misled the judge.

Most Americans will turn their clocks back early Sunday morning, following Halloween night, despite President Trump's push to end the practice and his public feud with a key Senate Republican over the issue.

Why it matters: Many Americans want to end the twice-yearly clock change in some way, but Congress remains deadlocked about how to make that happen.

The proposed $85 billion merger between railroads Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern has become an issue in Nebraska's Senate race.

The big picture: Independent candidate Dan Osborn, a union steamfitter whom polls show has a chance at unseating Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.), has argued that deal risks worker safety and would increase costs.

A Texas grand jury indicted ICE officer Mario Alberto Morales with a charge of second-degree aggravated assault Friday after prosecutors said he deliberately drove his SUV into a fleeing immigrant in early October.

Why it matters: This may be the first time an ICE agent has ever been indicted in Texas, making it a rare case of a federal immigration officer facing state charges.

Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) is endorsing a trio of insurgent Democratic candidates who are challenging his fellow California House Democrats, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: This is an aggressive move by a potential 2028 presidential contender who styles himself as one of the few Democrats willing to get into direct confrontations with the party establishment.

New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is giving a last-minute infusion of cash to help three Democratic Senate candidates in top battleground races, her team told Axios first.

Why it matters: The $450,000 boost in the final weekend of the midterm campaign is the latest sign that Ocasio-Cortez is looking to build alliances with Democrats across the country as she considers a run for president in 2028.

Grocery giants Albertsons and Kroger on Friday are scheduled to wrap witness testimony in a Delaware Chancery Court trial over their failed mega-merger.

Why it matters: Deal lawyers are paying close attention to the outcome.

Democrats weighing 2028 presidential bids are piling onto the AI hate wave in their messaging, per an analysis shared exclusively with Axios.

Why it matters: Democrats are turning AI anxiety into a political rallying cry ahead of 2028, while Republicans remain divided over how to respond.

President Trump's energy policies and investment deals could become major targets of Democratic investigations if the party wins control of either chamber of Congress.

Why it matters: Congressional probes could expose new details about the administration's dealings with major companies and foreign governments.

Here's a scary truth: The housing market is haunted. Home sales are anemic, yet prices are still high, and homebuilders say it's hard getting people out to even look at places.

Why it matters: For a long time, the residential real estate market was a crucial economic engine in the U.S., and homeownership the backbone of the American dream and wealth building.

• Now, not so much.

Where it stands: The average rate on the 30-year mortgage is 7.24%, up from just under 6% at the start of the Iran war — that put the kibosh on what had been a tentative thaw in the frozen sector.

• With rates that high, a lot of folks — particularly younger first-time buyers — can't afford the monthly payments. In September, 14.5% of pending home sales fell out of contract, per Redfin, the highest share outside the early pandemic.
• Traffic of prospective buyers to new homes fell to its lowest level since 2012 this month, according to a survey of homebuilders from the National Association of Home Builders.

The big picture: This is a situation years in the making. After the financial crisis in 2008, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates ultra-low, which meant low mortgage rates for buyers.

• Perhaps, perversely, that helped drive up home prices — you can afford to pay more when your mortgage rate is low.
• Home prices exploded, culminating in around a 40% increase during the 2021 and 2022 buying frenzy.

State of play: But now, home prices are still high — they haven't adjusted down as mortgage rates have gone back up.

Catch up quick: The previous era's low mortgage rates — an average of 4.15% from 2008-2021 — were an anomaly.

• "Consequently, there is little reason to believe that mortgage rates will fall much below 7.0% in the months or even years ahead, in the absence of a recession," David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, wrote in a note titled, yes, "Haunted Housing."

Zoom in: The market is "haunted by the legacy of too-easy monetary policy for well over a decade, which allowed prices to vault higher in the post-pandemic boom," he wrote.

• Tariffs and immigration policies are also taking a toll, Kelly said. The former is driving up prices for materials used to build homes, and the latter is driving up labor costs to build.

Zoom out: The situation is increasingly putting homeownership out of reach for young adults — the homeownership rate for that group, which had bounced back from its post-pandemic low, has fallen back some in recent years.

• Kelly says this is the scariest chart of all:

The bottom line: The housing market is more trick than treat lately.