Axios

Axios CEO Jim VandeHei asked two of the smartest political handicappers to help us think about 2026 midterm outcomes:

• Josh Kraushaar, editor-in-chief of Jewish Insider and former Axios campaign expert, and David Wasserman of The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.

Senate

Where it stands: 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, 2 independents caucusing with Dems (making 47 total).

• Democrats need: 4 flips to get to 51. Fifty isn't enough — the tiebreak is Republican.

America's start-of-school season stretches nearly two months.

Why it matters: Gone are the days of a shared "back-to-school" moment. U.S. schools reopen on schedules that stretch from mid-July to mid-September, depending on where they are.

Senate Republican leaders are tantalizingly close to a deal to take some uncomfortable votes in exchange for leaving town at a more comfortable hour.

Why it matters: President Trump won't like all of the outcomes, but senators don't plan to be around to hear about it.

Former Vice President Kamala Harris plans to spend the next few months rallying Southern voters after the Supreme Court "basically undid the Voting Rights Act," she said while speaking to students Friday in New Orleans.

The big picture: Harris characterized the Louisiana v. Callais decision, which narrowed legal protections against racial gerrymandering, as one of several "obstacles" to voting ahead of November's elections.

The Trump administration will ask the Supreme Court to reverse a block on its White House ballroom project, the president said Friday after a federal appeals court decided his plans need congressional approval.

The big picture: Trump's demolition of the East Wing and $400 million expansion project roiled Washington, sparking a legal challenge that now seems set for the nation's highest court.

The Senate passed a sweeping Russia sanctions bill Friday in an 86-11 vote.

Why it matters: The legislation would impose new sanctions on Russia, renew Iran sanctions and hand President Trump fresh authority to slap tariffs on major buyers of Russian oil.

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) announced Friday that he will vote for Todd Blanche's for attorney general, boosting his prospects for confirmation before the Senate leaves for its August recess.

Why it matters: Cassidy's vote keeps Blanche's nomination alive despite previous opposition from Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Susan Collins (R-Maine).

A nonpartisan coalition urged Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) Friday to cast the deciding vote against acting Attorney General Todd Blanche, President Trump's pick to head the Department of Justice, according to a letter obtained by Axios.

Why it matters: The pressure is building on Cassidy — who will make an announcement on his vote at 10:40 a.m. ET — to oppose Blanche. If Cassidy says he's a no, it would effectively tank Blanche's chance of being confirmed.

The profile of the proposed $67 billion merger between NextEra and Dominion just got even higher — and the path toward creating a new power giant just got even trickier.

Why it matters: Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger's (D) move Thursday to formally take part in the state regulatory proceeding is more than just inside baseball.

America's employers unexpectedly shed 23,000 jobs in July, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%, the government said on Friday.

Why it matters: The report shows the first job decline since February alongside steep downward revisions to previous months' data — hinting at bigger cracks in the labor market than previously known.