Saturday's politics & policy stories

Bromance over: Trudeau considers banning U.S. coal
The premier of Canada's British Columbia province wants to ban imports of U.S. thermal coal, and Justin Trudeau is "carefully and seriously" considering the idea as part of a retaliation for the U.S. tariff on Canadian lumber.
Quick fact: British Columbia exports 6.6 million metric tons of thermal coal a year, 94% of it from the U.S., and most of it to Asia, according to Bloomberg.
What that would mean: "Essentially, what this does is it wipes out the last remaining option for U.S. coal exporters to get their products off the northwest coast to Asia," Williams-Derry of the Sightline Institute.


The AHCA could hurt these Republicans in 2018
There are some House Republicans whose districts are largely Democratic, so their vote in favor of the AHCA will likely create an uphill battle come re-election time in 2018.
Here's the breakdown of how the GOP representatives who are headed into "competitive races," per the Cook Political report, fared the last time they were elected in their home districts compared to the margins in their home districts for Trump or Clinton in the 2016 presidential election.

Trump's Army Sec. pick bows out
Trump's pick to serve as Army Secretary, the former Army doctor Mark Green, who is currently a Tennessee state senator, has withdrawn his name from consideration over statements he has made over LBGT issues, Islam, and his beliefs in creationism, according to CNN.
What's causing the uproar:
- He said if you ask psychiatrists they will tell you "transgender is a disease."
- He said "we will not tolerate" educating people on Islam in textbooks.
- He's a self-proclaimed "creationist" and gave a lecture arguing against evolution.
Green purports that the attacks against him are "false and misleading." He concluded: "this nomination has become a distraction."
The trend: Trump's first pick for Army Secretary, Vincent Viola, also withdrew over complications with conflict-of-interest rules, and Trump's Navy secretary pick, Philip Bilden, also withdrew his name from consideration, that time over financial holdings.

Trump associates to reveal their Russian contacts
The Senate Intelligence Committee has asked Trump campaign associates to provide records of their communications with Russians as part of the committee's ongoing investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election, per the NYT.
A partial list of those asked: Roger Stone, Carter Page, Paul Manafort, and Michael Flynn.
The deadlines: May 9 to provide a list of Russians they've met; May 19 to turn over all communication records with those Russians, including emails, texts, and phone calls — that accelerated timeline shows that the committee isn't messing around.

Sarah Sanders steps in for Spicer's Friday briefing
Deputy Press Secretary Sarah Sanders stepped in for Sean Spicer again today, who is on Navy duty. The takeaways:
- Getting AHCA through the Senate: "Never underestimate this president... This isn't a president who does things hands off," said Sanders. "I expect him to be fully engaged on the Senate side."
- On Senate waiting for CBO score: "I know the gospel pretty well and I would say the CBO score is not the gospel."
- Trump's legacy: "The president wants to be remembered as the person who got rid of Obamacare and put in a replacement that works for the people."
- On Trump praising Australia's health care: "I think he was simply being complimentary of the prime minister... but what works in Australia may not work in the US."
- Spending bill: Trump signed the spending bill "during the last hour."
- On Trump's trip to Bedminster, NJ: "Staying in New York would have caused much greater disruption and much greater cost to taxpayers than staying in NJ... The president is the president no matter where he goes. He doesn't get to control the costs that go with that."
- Will Trump subpoena Susan Rice to testify? "I think thats a question for Congress, but I do think it's very sad she has chosen not be cooperative in this process."
- French election: "The president will work with whoever the people of France decide to elect."
- Cinco de Mayo shout out: "It's Cinco de Mayo, a great opportunity to celebrate the contributions of Mexicans and Mexican-Americans."

More Republicans now at midterms risk
A key Republican strategist tells me that the health-care vote gives Dems a better (though still not good) chance of retaking the House in 2018.
The reason: After the Senate vote, the House members "will have difficulty passing a repeal/replace bill, but will have voted for a bill that Dems can claim would be terrible for real people's health care and costs."
SIREN: The Cook Political Report today will shift its 2018 forecast for 20 House districts, all in favor of Democrats.

Hollywood v. Trump: Disney CEO intrigued by 2020 bid
Disney CEO Bob Iger is being pelted with entreaties to run for president in 2020, and is clearly intrigued by the idea, according to industry sources. Iger has discussed the feasibility with friends but has made no formal moves.
"He's hearing quite a bit of: You should run — you'd be a great president," said one Hollywood insider. "He's hearing that quite a bit from prominent fundraisers and Democratic insiders."

The Trump resistance has monetized viral moments
Minutes after the House passed a bill Thursday to replace the Affordable Care Act:
- DCCC launched a five-figure ad campaign on Facebook and Instagram, geo-targeting 30 vulnerable House Republicans.
- Planned Parenthood had an ad on Twitter that warned vulnerable Republicans they will be held accountable for their vote.
By Thursday evening, Daily Kos announced it raised over $400,000 in under five hours through a digital fundraising effort promoted on social media, and Swing Left, an advocacy group aiming to re-take Congress in 2018, announced it had raised $500,000 in 24 hours.
Why it matters: The 24/7 news cycle created by cable news and intensified by Trump's use of social media has led to an environment in which advocacy groups, media companies and digital movements can leverage viral moments to launch their campaigns. Many groups had been preparing for a moment like this to launch a more fleshed-out Trump resistance campaign ahead of 2018.



The 14 Republicans who risked the most voting for AHCA
Of the 23 Republicans representing districts won by Hillary Clinton, 14 voted in favor of the GOP health care bill. Here those members are, ranked by the size of Clinton's margin in their district:







