Axios

Welcome to the "not great, but stable" economy, according to Procter & Gamble.

Why it matters: With a wide range of consumer products such as Pampers diapers, Bounty paper towels and Head & Shoulders shampoo, P&G has unique insights into the state of the American consumer.

The Treasury Department imposed sanctions Friday on Colombian President Gustavo Petro, along with his wife and son, as well as the country's interior minister.

Why it matters: The U.S. is quickly escalating its fight with Colombia, days after President Trump threatened tariffs and military action against the country.

About 658,000 civilian employees at the Departments of Defense, Health and Human Services and Veterans Affairs missed their first full paycheck on Friday, marking the latest grim milestone of the government shutdown that has no end in sight.

Why it matters: In a year of mass layoffs, the shutdown's furloughs and now missed pay are another low for beleaguered federal workers.

There is good news in the lone economic report of the shutdown: Inflation was benign in September, with little sign tariffs are igniting a nationwide price shock.

Why it matters: Within months, tariffs rose to the highest in a century — yet companies so far are holding the line on consumer prices in ways few outside of the White House expected.

• "Much like a Sherlock Holmes story, inflation is the dog that didn't bark," Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management, wrote in a client note.

By the numbers: The shutdown-delayed report showed that the Consumer Price Index and the core measure that strips out food and energy costs rose 3% in the 12 months through September.

• Economists expected that the overall CPI would rise more from the 2.9% in August.
• Core CPI actually ticked down.

Zoom in: The report shows that disinflationary trends were intact in the housing sector, a massive category in the CPI that has kept upward pressure on overall inflation.

• Shelter rose just 0.2% in September, down from the 0.4% increase the prior month. Owners' equivalent rent — how the Bureau of Labor Statistics measures inflation for homes that people own — saw the smallest price increase in almost 5 years.

The big picture: The report amounts to a bright green light for the Fed to cut interest rates for the second time this year following its two-day policy meeting that ends on Wednesday, and tilts things toward an additional cut in December.

• "This will be framed as an insurance cut, with hopes that by December the shutdown is over and the Fed has a clearer read on jobs," Fitch Ratings economist Olu Sonola wrote, noting that tariff passthrough to consumers "generally remains muted."

Yes, but: Inflation is still uncomfortably high for Fed officials. Over the last three months, core CPI is up an annualized 3.6%, compared to the 3.1% rate in the same period a year ago.

Between the lines: Americans likely still feel sticker shock with many expenses, with no guarantee that tariff-related price increases will remain moderate.

• Retail coffee prices are up 19% compared to a year ago, at least in part because of President Trump's tariffs.
• Utility prices fell in September, but are up nearly 12% over the past year.

The bottom line: The cooler-than-expected inflation report offered a small window into the economy's health last month.

• Economic policymakers won't get much more information for some time, as the government shutdown drags on and delays key reports.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) said his office is "going to get involved" with billionaire sports owners making games unaffordable for many families, during a conversation with Axios' Alex Thompson on the fourth episode of "The Axios Show."

• Sanders didn't explain further, and spokesperson Anna Bahr declined to comment when asked.

Social Security retirement and disability benefits for 2026 will increase by 2.8%, a $56-a-month boost for retirees starting in January, the government announced Friday.

Why it matters: The cost-of-living adjustment, known as COLA, is higher than last year's 2.5% increase but below the decade average of 3.1%.

Whatever political opposition existed around restricting drug prices through government intervention — and there was quite a lot not so long ago — seems to have largely disappeared.

• In other words, price controls are all the rage.

The Consumer Price Index showed prices rising at a slower pace than expected in September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday in a report delayed by the government shutdown.

Why it matters: The only economic data that will be released in the foreseeable future shows inflation cooled last month.

Some of the year's best-performing assets are suddenly reversing course: Quantum and nuclear stocks have sold off, alongside precious metals.

Why it matters: The selling could be a hint of exhaustion over the euphoric corners of the market.

Gen Z and millennials are driving the fastest growth in sports betting, but a decline may be on the horizon, according to TransUnion's latest U.S. gaming report.

Why it matters: The credit bureau says gambling responsibly is "more important than ever" due to economic uncertainty and growing debt obligations for young bettors.

The Commerce Department is planning to lean heavily on industry and outside groups to shape a new AI exports program, but insiders say this week's "chaotic" rollout has fallen short.

Why it matters: Companies approved for the program created by President Trump's executive order are promised government financial incentives that could give them an edge in the global AI race.

Senate Democrats are moving to officially condemn President Trump's pardon of Changpeng Zhao, better known as CZ, the founder of crypto exchange Binance, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: Some Senate Republicans have already criticized the pardon, with Democrats eyeing rare bipartisan pushback against the White House.

Green energy stocks are making a comeback despite political headwinds, according to data released this week by research firm Rystad Energy.

Why it matters: Conventional wisdom suggests that clean-energy companies are down and out with President Trump repealing a raft of policies supporting them. But the stock reality says otherwise.

Former President Reagan's foundation said Thursday night it's "reviewing legal options" after Canada's Ontario provincial government "created an ad campaign against tariffs "using selective audio and video" of a 1987 address by the late president.

Why it matters: The announcement prompted President Trump to abruptly terminate all trade talks with Canadian officials and accuse Canada of trying to interfere in a case challenging his tariffs that's before the U.S. Supreme Court.

President Trump said he's ended trade talks with Canada over a TV ad that's running in the province of Ontario, which he claimed "fraudulently" featured the late President Reagan "speaking negatively" about tariffs.

The big picture: Trump accused Canadian officials of trying to interfere in a legal challenge to his tariffs that's before the U.S. Supreme Court with the anti-tariffs ad that Reagan's foundation said misrepresented a 1987 address on free trade by the former president. The foundation said it's reviewing its legal options.

Major airports in New York, D.C., New Jersey and Texas were hit by flight delays and ground stops due to air traffic control staffing issues on Thursday as the government shutdown lingered into a 23rd day.

The big picture: The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issued ground stops for LaGuardia, Houston Bush, Newark and Reagan airports amid Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy's warning that air traffic controllers will miss paychecks next week due to the ongoing government shutdown.