Axios

WASHINGTON – Trade wars, AI disruption and rising tariffs are redrawing the global power map with ripple effects across defense, health care and beyond, top leaders said at an Axios event on May 21.

• The event was sponsored by Exiger.

Why it matters: As uncertainty looms over the economy and international trade relations, companies and policy leaders are looking to see how the new rules of power will play out.

Here's what was said:

• Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) said Russian President Vladimir Putin is playing President Trump "like a fiddle" days after a two-hour call ended with no ceasefire. Also, Shaheen, who worked with Secretary of State Marco Rubio on foreign assistance programs during his time in the Senate, said she "would like to see that Marco Rubio back."
• CIA deputy director Michael Ellis said the CIA needs to fix its tools and techniques, which date to the 1960s and '70s. "A lot of them need to be updated and refreshed to confront the technological challenges of today."
• Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Trump's "gold card" website, which allows people to buy U.S. permanent residency for $5 million, will launch within a week.
• Bayer CEO Bill Anderson said the tariffs haven't affected the company so far, but it's "really important to us that this gets worked out."
• U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll said artificial intelligence can unlock "a ton of value" and help "transform the business side of the Army."
• Rep. John Moolenaar (R-Mich.) chair of the House select panel on China, said that country is "not a friendly nation," and America doesn't "want to completely decouple, but at the same time we need to be strategic and have our supply chains."

Content from the sponsored segments:

In View From the Top conversations, Exiger CEO Brandon Daniels said deep innovation and "scaling disruption" are the ways for the West to win the trade war.

• "It's actually turning innovation into a continuous part of the supply chain, because there has been a mediocrity in institutional scale," Daniels said. "Like China, [it has] these completely verticalized supply chains where literally there's a mill next to a forging facility, next to a components facility, next to an auto manufacturer – completely streamlined, completely effective. The only way to make it so that that becomes obsolesced is for us to actually just continually innovate at every level."

A handful of retailers delivered a mixed message on tariff impacts when reporting earnings today.

• 🛍️ Macy's: The department store chain reduced its earnings outlook, though tariffs were only part of the reason. CEO Tony Spring told CNBC the company would raise prices on a "surgical" basis to offset them. But its strategy of focusing on its best locations is starting to yield results. The company's comparable sales at its owned stores fell 2%, and revenue beat expectations. The stock closed down 0.3%.
• 🏸 Dick's Sporting Goods: The sports retailer maintained its full-year guidance for comparable sales and earnings based on "the expected impact from all tariffs currently in effect." Q1 comp sales rose 4.5%, fueled by an uptick in average ticket spend and total transactions. Shares closed up 1.7%.
• 👕 Abercrombie & Fitch: The fashion retailer reduced its full-year outlook for profit and operating margin while noting an expected $50 million hit from tariffs. But the company said it wasn't planning any "broad-based" price increases. It also upped its full-year revenue forecast and beat expectations on Q1 revenue and profit, sending its stock soaring almost 15%.

United Airlines flyers will need to check in at least 45 minutes before departure.

• The new rule, which takes effect June 3, applies to both customers who are not checking a bag and customers who are checking one.
• ⏰ Previously, flyers who weren't checking a bag could check in as late as 30 minutes before departure.

What they're saying: A United spokesperson told AP the change "brings greater consistency for our customers" and brings the airline into line with many of its competitors.

Nvidia topped earnings expectations in its most recent quarter as AI chip demand continues to fuel growth for the company despite concerns about mounting U.S.-to-China export restrictions.

Why it matters: Nvidia has become a bellwether stock for the AI economy as tech companies invest heavily in product development and data center capability, powering Nvidia's rise.

Some officials at the Federal Reserve warned about "vulnerabilities to the financial system" as President Trump's trade war caused sharp swings in stock and bond prices, minutes from the central bank's May 6-7 policy meeting show.

Why it matters: The central bank said the heightened volatility could cause market stress that would expose underlying concerns about the financial system, while noting that a so-called Sell America trade could take a toll on the economy.

Vice President Vance addressed the Bitcoin 2025 conference in Las Vegas Wednesday, promising to eliminate aggressive regulation of the crypto industry and promote a pro-growth legal framework for stablecoins.

Why it matters: Last year then-candidate Donald Trump cemented the Bitcoin community's support for his re-election by becoming the first presidential candidate to appear at the world's largest Bitcoin-focused event.

Energy prices are plunging, a boost for consumers and businesses alike — and a key White House talking point, too.

Why it matters: Lower oil and gasoline prices could offset some of the consumer pain if prices on a slew of other goods go up as a result of the trade wars.

• But it likely won't be enough to entirely shield the economy from the tariff shock.

New York City's pension systems yesterday announced a $5 billion sale of private equity stakes, with Blackstone as the lead buyer.

Why it matters: This appears to be the largest PE secondaries deal ever, in terms of dollar value, and highlights how large limited partners are seeking to streamline their manager rosters.

Cavnue, a developer of intelligent road technology, is launching a smart highway project along one of America's busiest freight corridors that connects to the Port of Savannah, Axios is first to report.

Why it matters: The project to transform State Route 307 — the critical artery feeding the nation's third-largest container port — into a smart freight corridor could help ease congestion and reduce accidents.

The difference between trade wars and trade peace (or something close) could sway global oil demand by millions of barrels per day this decade, the research firm Wood Mackenzie finds.

Why it matters: Its oil estimates are part of a wider report that shows how trade policy is a powerful variable that will shape the energy future.

A buried provision in the "big beautiful bill" effectively penalizes single parents who receive SNAP, or food stamps, as compared to households headed by married couples.

Why it matters: The provision is part of new stricter SNAP work requirements included in the bill, which are the first of their kind.

The White House is terminating $400 million in funds for states meant to modernize their unemployment insurance systems.

Why it matters: These systems fell apart when unemployment soared in the pandemic, leading to rampant fraud and delays for beneficiaries.

Dario Amodei — CEO of Anthropic, one of the world's most powerful creators of artificial intelligence — has a blunt, scary warning for the U.S. government and all of us:

• AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs — and spike unemployment to 10-20% in the next one to five years, Amodei told us in an interview from his San Francisco office.
• Amodei said AI companies and government need to stop "sugar-coating" what's coming: the possible mass elimination of jobs across technology, finance, law, consulting and other white-collar professions, especially entry-level gigs.

More than 70% of U.S. small and mid-sized businesses say tariffs have already increased their operating costs — but almost all still expect to be able to grow internationally in the coming years, per a new HSBC survey shared exclusively with Axios.

Why it matters: In an increasingly volatile and uncertain environment, corporate leaders are staying optimistic, even while they concede that it's getting more expensive to do business.

Elon Musk said President Trump's "big, beautiful bill" "undermines" DOGE's cost-cutting, per an excerpt of CBS News' interview with the businessman that was released Tuesday.

Why it matters: Musk has been a key Trump ally during the president's second term after donating millions of dollars to his 2024 election campaign, leading efforts to reduce government spending until the Tesla CEO stepped back from DOGE after the EV firm's sales took a hit from his close ties to the administration.