Nvidia under pressure to show growth despite U.S. chip export controls
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Investors will be seeking signs Wednesday of how President Trump's trade war is affecting Nvidia when the AI chip giant reports earnings in the afternoon.
Why it matters: With U.S. export restrictions for AI chips tightening, Nvidia finds itself in a revenue pickle — trying to maintain as much business as possible in China while appeasing the American government.
The big picture: "The big question for tomorrow is what type of dent has the Trump H20/China business played in Nvidia's global demand and outlook going forward," Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives writes in a research note, referring to an Nvidia AI chip.
- Nvidia is reportedly poised to launch a new AI chip for China "at a significantly lower price than its recently restricted H20 model and plans to start mass production as early as June," Reuters reported.
Catch up quick: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang argued last week that U.S. chip export controls have been "a failure," with their biggest impact being the erosion of Nvidia's competitive position.
- Nvidia's once-dominant position in China has been significantly dented, Huang said — its market share in the country falling from 95% four years ago to only 50% today.
- Huang's argument, as framed by Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore, is that cutting Nvidia out of China could accelerate the rise of a rival hardware ecosystem that may prove more problematic for the U.S. in the long run.
State of play: Nvidia's stock has been on a roller coaster ride this year.
- After a meteoric rise in 2023 and 2024, the shares were down more than 35% in 2025 through midday April 7, before recovering effectively all of the year's losses through Tuesday's close.
- Yes, but: Sell side analysts do not "appear to have universally modeled the impact" of the H20 China export ban, Moore writes, "so there is some downside potential" in Nvidia's earnings report.
By the numbers: S&P Global Market Intelligence analysts are projecting revenue of $43.2 billion and net income of $20.3 billion.
What we're watching: Whether Nvidia comments on the impact of AI chip spending announcements connected to President Trump's recent trip to the Middle East.
- Ives sees growing opportunities in the Middle East — particularly in Saudi Arabia and the UAE — which he believes could significantly expand the global AI market.
