Monday's economy stories
Charted: Adobe-Figma deal is over




Adobe and Figma have terminated their $20 billion merger agreement announced last September, the companies said today.
- They cited regulatory hurdles, which surrounded the agreement from the start against the backdrop of strong antitrust regimes in both the U.S. and abroad, Axios' Kerry Flynn notes.
Flashback: Adobe investors had expressed shock at the sticker price — 40 times Figma's annual revenue run rate, Axios' Ina Fried has written. (Maybe why the stock shot up nearly 2.5% today.)
The other side: Adobe needs a rethink for the cloud era, Adobe general counsel Dana Rao previously told Ina. The Figma deal was supposed to be a start.
What's happening
✂️ Illumina will divest cancer diagnostic test maker Grail after two years of antitrust battles. (Axios Pro)
⌚ Apple will stop selling the latest versions of its smartwatch in the U.S. due to a patent dispute. (Bloomberg)
Steely response
U.S. Steel today said it's agreed to a $14.9 billion deal to sell to Japan's Nippon Steel.
Zoom in: The $55 per share offer represents around a 40% premium to where Pittsburgh-based U.S. Steel shares closed Friday, Axios' Dan Primack reports.
- That's substantially higher than the rebuffed bids from American rivals Cleveland Cliffs and Esmark.
Yes, but: The United Steelworkers union is saying not so fast.
- The union — which has made its preference for Cleveland Cliffs' offer loud and clear — has said its contract with U.S. Steel requires any prospective buyer to agree to a new labor deal before a sale can be finalized, Nathan writes.
Sign of the times
I'd have put a pickleball joke in the headline here if I knew one, but the photo speaks for itself, Hope writes.
Spotted on Saturday: These Christmas tree ornaments were the last ones of their kind left at my local home decor store and they were begging for attention.
- First, because they're the first pickleball-themed holiday trinkets I've ever stumbled across.
- And second, because their price tags — $24 for a tiny, stuffed sweaty Santa and $18 for a stand-alone glittery paddle and ball — gave me a horrible feeling about the cost of holidays to come.
Did I buy them? Ho, ho, no.
What they're saying
"No court or any independent investigation has substantiated any allegations that: there has been systemic or widespread sexual harassment at Activision Blizzard."— From an agreement through which the California Civil Rights Department withdraws its claims of sexual harassment against Activision Blizzard in what the NYT called a "stunning reversal."

Why inflation's "last mile" might not be so hard after all
Top policymakers warned that the "last mile" of getting inflation back to 2% would be most challenging.
- But now, the finish line is in sight and disinflation looks to still have momentum to carry through.
Why it matters: Beating inflation in America has not become more difficult as the fight winds down.
- Rather, supply-side rebounds and strong productivity gains have surprised top economists, who expected economic pain might be necessary to get inflation all the way back to the sweet spot central bankers aim for.


Fed to markets: Not so fast on those rate cuts
Financial markets went wild last week after communications out of the Fed suggested multiple rate cuts are on the way next year. Fed officials noticed and appear to believe the reaction was overblown.
What they're saying: "We've made a lot of progress in 2023, but I still caution everyone, it's not done," said Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee on CBS' "Face the Nation" Sunday.
- "We've got to get inflation down to target," he said. "Until we're convinced that we're on path to that, it's an overstatement to be counting the chickens."
- Goolsbee has been an anchor of the dovish wing of the Fed's policy committee — seemingly more open to rate cuts than some of his colleagues. That gives his skepticism of the rate-cuts-soon narrative extra weight.
Meanwhile, Cleveland Fed president Loretta Mester said in an interview published Monday morning that "markets are a little bit ahead."
- "They jumped to the end part, which is 'We're going to normalise quickly,' and I don't see that," Mester told the Financial Times.
- The comments from Goolsbee and Mester follow similar cold water thrown by New York Fed president John Williams on Friday.
Between the lines: It's the nature of markets to get ahead of Fed officials. What matters for stock and bond prices is what the Fed ultimately ends up doing on rate cuts, not what officials say today.
- But the latest round of comments make clear that the Fed won't deliver the rate cuts Wall Street wants unless and until the economic data, especially around inflation, cooperates.

Google releases most searched Christmas cookies

America's most popular Christmas cookies for 2023 are a festive mix of cultural and colorful varieties, according to Google Trends data.
Why it matters: Buying or baking Christmas cookies to serve at holiday celebrations — or to leave for Santa — is a longstanding tradition for many families.

The minimum wage is going up in 22 states on Jan. 1

The minimum wage is set to increase in 22 states on Jan. 1, 2024.
Why it matters: For Americans making minimum wage, it's an automatic raise — but it also ripples out. Typically, increasing the wage floor for the lowest earners pushes up pay for those who make a bit more than the minimum, as employers have to adjust pay scales upwards.

The stock market's "fear gauge" is at its lowest level since the pandemic


The stock market's "fear gauge" is down to its lowest level since the start of the pandemic.
Why it matters: Volatility is a key constraint on traders, investors, hedge funds, investment bankers and basically everybody on Wall Street.

Market rally has Wall Street bracing for a refinancing bonanza


An insurance brokerage called USI borrowed $600 million from investors in the high-yield bond market last week.
Why it matters: It's Wall Street's first bond deal with a "CCC" credit rating since all the way back in April, per Pitchbook LCD. The CCC designation is the worst, most risky rating — and the market for these bonds has been effectively dead.

