Axios

A major bet on Nicolás Maduro's capture before the Venezuelan president was seized in an American military raid shows how prediction markets pose a controversial new opportunity for insiders to profit on secret information.

Why it matters: Insider trading on the stock market is illegal, while insider trading on prediction markets is generally not — at least for now — and critics say that's a problem.

After the U.S. operation to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, tensions between President Trump and Colombian President Gustavo Petro are boiling over.

Why it matters: What Trump has called a "successful" attack on Venezuela could embolden his administration to pursue a military actios in Colombia against the country's alleged drug facilities — or its leadership.

President Trump's capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro over the weekend might be the first step of a larger military effort against Latin American countries.

The big picture: As Trump looks to assert his own version of the Monroe Doctrine, his administration has shown little hesitation to act in Latin America through controversial boat strikes and pointed threats that align with the president's broader war on drugs.

Protesters across the U.S. rallied against the Trump administration's intervention in Venezuela over the weekend, demanding "No Blood for Oil."

Why it matters: In a callback to past anti-war protests, activists are reviving the "No Blood for Oil" slogan to oppose U.S. military action in Venezuela. The message reflects enduring skepticism of foreign intervention — and a fear that energy interests, not clear national security goals, are driving the conflict.

White House envoy Steve Witkoff and President Trump's adviser and son-in-law Jared Kushner will travel to Paris to participate on Tuesday in a summit focused on security guarantees to Ukraine in a future peace deal, a White House official said.

Why it matters: Ukrainian officials say that getting a strong and clear security guarantee from the U.S. and European countries will be the basis for any deal that includes possible territorial concessions in the Russian-controlled Donbas region of Ukraine.

Ian Bremmer — president and founder of Eurasia Group, a top global political-risk research and consulting firm — says the top geopolitical risk for 2026 is the "U.S. Political Revolution," with President Trump "so committed to and so capable of changing the political system."

Why it matters: Eurasia Group's annual "Top Risks" report — out Monday, 48 hours after Trump shook the world by snatching Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro — isolates the "biggest threats to the trajectories of nations, industries and institutions," to help leaders and investors prepare for the year.

President Trump's vision of American oil companies rebuilding Venezuela's broken petro-sector creates his biggest test yet of the U.S. industry's tolerance for risk.

Why it matters: Trump and other administration officials haven't been subtle about calling Venezuela's massive oil reserves a key reason for toppling President Nicolás Maduro.

The leaders of Greenland and Denmark called on President Trump to stop threatening to take over the resources-rich autonomous territory that's part of the Danish kingdom.

The big picture: The calls come after Trump renewed his push to control Greenland during a Sunday interview with The Atlantic on the U.S. raid and ensuing capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in Caracas.

President Trump said Sunday the U.S. could launch a second strike on Venezuela if "they don't behave."

Why it matters: His comments came after Venezuela's interim leader, Delcy Rodríguez, struck a more conciliatory tone after Trump issued a warning to her following her earlier criticism of the U.S. attack and capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

President Trump said the U.S. will be strongly involved in Venezuela's oil industry, asserting that American companies will take a lead in rebuilding its deteriorating petroleum infrastructure.

The big picture: Trump's comments about the nation's huge oil reserves following the capture of President Nicolás Maduro raise many unanswered questions, including how much interest the companies have in re-establishing operations there.

Venezuela must remain an independent country, Pope Leo XIV said Sunday as he expressed concern for Venezuelans following the U.S. raid and ensuing capture of leader Nicolás Maduro in the South American country.

The big picture: President Trump said Saturday American officials will "run" Venezuela until a "proper transition can take place" following the attack on Caracas to capture Maduro, who's in U.S. custody and faces charges including narcoterrorism.