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Axios 2028

Republicans are preparing to welcome a potential Graham Platner replacement in Maine's Senate race with $8 million in negative ads, aiming to introduce a new Democratic nominee to voters on their own terms before Democrats can.

Why it matters: Republicans are doing something Democrats wish they could: Move on from Platner.

The progressive candidate, who said Monday he is taking time to "reflect" on his next steps, remains officially in the race and is looking to leverage his status as the Democratic nominee to influence who could replace him.

Republicans, meanwhile, see an opening: three weeks to prepare a campaign against a Democratic nominee who will have little time to introduce themselves to voters.

Driving the news: Pine Tree Results, the super PAC backing Republican Sen. Susan Collins, raised $10.5 million during the first half of the year — matching what it raised during the same period in 2025, according to a person familiar with the matter.

The group pulled its anti-Platner ads Tuesday and has $8 million in cash on hand to define a likely fresh Democratic nominee for voters during a compressed campaign.

Among the donors to the pro-Collins super PAC is Blackstone president Jon Gray, a longtime Democratic donor. He contributed $250,000 well before Politico and CNN reported sexual assault allegations against Platner.

What we're hearing: Platner appears to be using whatever sway he might still have to try to choose his successor.

"Graham still has to make the decision to leave the ballot. And folks are pretending that he has. And he has not," a person familiar with the campaign's internal discussions said Tuesday morning. "[It's] very clear that he cares about the movement more than the party."

Another person close to Platner's adviser, Morris Katz, said Katz has discussed suspending the campaign with Platner and planned to meet him in Maine on Tuesday to tell him it's not a question of whether he drops out, but when.

The same person said Platner has told his team that he built a movement and won a record-breaking number of votes, and that he does not want his successor to be a "corporate" Democrat.

Between the lines: There have been conflicting accounts of the behind-the-scenes maneuvering. 

The New York Post reported Tuesday that a source said Katz is "still recommending Platner stay in the race." Katz responded on X that "no one in campaign deliberations or familiar with my thinking is talking to" the Post.

Zoom out: Platner's implosion in Maine is scrambling the spending calculus for both parties, with consequences that could stretch as far as Alaska.

Senate Majority PAC, the Democratic super PAC aligned with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), has publicly paused its spending in Maine to pressure Platner to exit the race.

If Platner stays on the ballot, the $33 million that the super PAC has reserved for Maine would likely be redirected to emerging Democratic pick-up opportunities, including Iowa, Ohio and Alaska.

The intrigue: That shift could benefit Senate candidates such as former Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio and former Rep. Mary Peltola in Alaska. 

Progressive energy is also likely to flow toward Abdul El-Sayed's Senate campaign in Michigan, where he is in a high-stakes showdown with Rep. Haley Stevens for the Democratic Senate nomination. 

The bottom line: Platner's indecision is fueling anxiety throughout the Democratic Party and exposing a divide between progressives and the party establishment that leaders had hoped to bridge before November.

matching what it raised during the same period in 2025

Scoop: Republicans prepare $8 million ad blitz against Platner replacement

Republicans are doing something Democrats wish they could: move on from Platner.

U.S. Senate nominee Graham Platner of Maine leaves a meeting at the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee on June 2 in Washington, D.C. 

U.S. Senate nominee Graham Platner of Maine leaves a meeting at the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee on June 2 in Washington, D.C. Photo: Eric Lee/Getty Images

U.S. politics & policy

2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

Politics & Policy

Senate GOP leaders say they have spoken with Sen. Mitch McConnell in recent days, as speculation swirls online among MAGA influencers about the Kentucky Republican's health.

Why it matters: McConnell has been hospitalized for roughly three weeks, with very little information about his condition.

Driving the news: Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.),  Majority Whip John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) and former McConnell aide Scott Jennings went public within hours of each other Tuesday, describing substantive, detailed conversations with McConnell in starkly similar terms. 

"They had a lengthy and substantive conversation that covered a variety of topics, including national security," a Thune spokesperson said.

Barrasso and McConnell "caught up about the latest news impacting Senate races, the Graham Platner scandal, and the recent Supreme Court ruling on coordinated spending limits," spokesperson Kate Noyes said.

"He's still recovering in the hospital. We talked for just shy of 20 minutes … about IRAN, UKRAINE, the unfolding situation in MAINE, my visit to the TR Presidential Library, and even a little bit of Senate history," Jennings posted on X.

Catch up quick: Influential MAGA voices on X have fueled speculation about McConnell's health status. 

Laura Loomer has claimed, without evidence, the senator is "brain dead" and "hooked up to machines." She is now alleging a "cover up."

"We need the truth about Mitch McConnell NOW. It is unacceptable that the party who spent four years criticizing Joe Biden's health is now silent on McConnell's," conservative commentator Glenn Beck posted.

Zoom in: Under Kentucky law, if a Senate vacancy were to occur before Aug. 3, a special election would be held quickly to fill the seat. If a vacancy were to occur on or after Aug. 3, the new senator would be elected in November as planned.

What we know: In a reported recording of an EMS call from the day of the senator's hospitalization, roughly three weeks ago, a dispatcher mentions cardiac arrest and a person being unconscious at McConnell's address.

There has been no official confirmation of the cause for McConnell's hospitalization.

What they're saying: "Senator McConnell appreciates the outpouring of support he's receiving while he continues his recovery in the hospital," a McConnell spokesperson said in a statement Tuesday. 

"The Senator continues to improve, and is working closely with his staff on Kentucky and Senate matters while the Senate is out of session."

McConnell's team issued an identical statement July 2.

Inside the McConnell health rumor mill

Majority Leader John Thune, Whip John Barrasso (and former aide Scott Jennings all described recent calls with McConnell.

Then-Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Minority Whip John Thune during a news conference at the U.S. Capitol on Nov. 19, 2024. 

Then-Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Minority Whip John Thune during a news conference at the U.S. Capitol on Nov. 19, 2024. Photo: Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

The U.S. health system faces critical questions about cost, access and equity. Technological advances and new discoveries about diseases like cancer and Alzheimer’s are transforming patient care and reshaping public health.

Health

The Trump administration on Tuesday revoked the temporary waivers it issued as part of the memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Iran that had allowed Tehran to sell oil, the Treasury Department announced. 

Why it matters: The revocation of the waivers, issued less than three weeks ago, came in response to the renewed Iranian attacks against ships in the Strait of Hormuz over the past 24 hours.

The latest: An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said commercial vessels using uncoordinated routes with Iran or "tampering" with ships' tracking faced risks and disrupted Tehran's efforts to facilitate safe passage in the Strait of Hormuz. 

Driving the news: A U.S. official said the Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control was revoking the general license that authorized the sale of Iranian oil because, as "President Trump and the administration have repeatedly affirmed, the MOU in effect with Iran is entirely performance-based."

The official added: "Iran will only reap benefits if they exhibit good behavior. Iran's actions in the strait were wholly unacceptable to the United States and will be met with consequences. Our negotiators continue to work in good faith toward a final deal." 

What they're saying: Tehran's Foreign Ministry said Iran was "diligently fulfilling its commitments" per the MOU regarding "necessary measures" to manage the strait.

He said countries in the region and shipping companies should "refrain from any actions that contradict provisions of the MOU."

This is a breaking news story. Check back for updates.

U.S. revokes Iran oil waivers after attacks in Strait of Hormuz

There have been renewed Iranian attacks against ships in the Strait of Hormuz over the past 24 hours.

Row of cargo ships on the horizon, cranes visible on some, against a hazy gray sky and calm greenish sea; distant vessels appear as silhouettes.

Large commercial vessels and a small boat navigate the waters off the southern port city of Bandar Abbas, Iran, in June. Photo: Hassan Ghaedi/Anadolu via Getty Images

Geopolitics & international conflict

Iran

Oil companies

Transportation

Conflicts, policies and powers are intersecting and shaping the world. Breaking news and analysis of national security, foreign policy and global crises.

World

Top stories & latest news on the Federal Reserve, real-time data, plus the biggest shifts happening in the U.S. and global economy.

Economy

Latest news on Wall Street, Corporate America and financial regulation.

Business

Breaking climate science and policy coverage as extreme weather events reshape communities. Keep tabs on the race to a low carbon economy, which may be bumpy as governments, climate tech startups and major oil and gas companies race to find their niche amid the changing energy landscape.

Energy & Climate

Pro Rata

Axios Pro Rata

Microsoft for years has been an active acquirer of gaming companies, including small independent ones. But that may be changing.

Driving the news: The tech giant on Monday announced a giant restructuring of its Xbox unit, including thousands of job cuts and the divestiture of five gaming studios.

Two of the studios (Ninja Theory and Undead Labs) have undisclosed buyers, while two others (Double Fine and Compulsion Games) will be spun out to their founders.

A process to divest the fifth studio, France's Arkane, is just beginning.

What they're saying: "Our business today is not healthy ... We must reset Xbox," group CEO Asha Sharma wrote in a memo. "We have also learned that we are not the best home for every type of studio: In a typical year, we lost 64 cents for every dollar we invested [on small/mid-sized studios]."

Catch up quick: Shortly after becoming Microsoft CEO in 2014, Satya Nadella joined a Fortune conference in Aspen where he talked excitedly about the company's growth opportunities in gaming. Not just hardware, but the games themselves.

His first big swing was on Mojang Studios, the Swedish maker of Minecraft. That was followed by a $7.5 billion acquisition of ZeniMax in 2021 — which included Arkane — and then its $63 billion buy of Activision Blizzard in 2023.

Meanwhile, former Xbox boss Phil Spencer complemented those deals with a spate of smaller acquisitions.

Look ahead: Sharma's memo argued that the moves are more about reorganization than retreat, with Game File's Stephen Totilo reporting that there could be additional investment in the Minecraft platform.

At the same time, however, it's hard to see her breaking out the M&A checkbook any time soon.

The bottom line: Microsoft just dashed the dreams of gaming developers, and their VC backers.

Microsoft dashes game developer dreams

Microsoft's M&A ambitions might be changes, as it revamps Xbox.

Illustration of the XBOX logo on top of a stack of hundred dollar bills.

Big Tech

Corporate earnings and M&A

Dealmaking

Gaming

Tech company news

From the Valley to D.C., Big Tech players like Facebook, Google and Amazon are under more scrutiny than ever as new technology develops and privacy and antitrust concerns grow in lockstep with companies’ ambitions.

Technology

Codebook

Axios Codebook

The old ways of testing and evaluating new frontier AI models need a rewrite. 

Why it matters: AI models are outgrowing the existing methods of testing and benchmarking their hacking abilities — and without new tests, policymakers and corporate security teams won't have a clear way to predict what these models can actually do or whether they can be deployed safely.

Driving the news: Federal agencies have until Aug. 1 to establish a classified benchmarking process to assess the capabilities of frontier AI models, although the Financial Times reports those standards may arrive as soon as this week. 

When Fable 5 returned last week, Anthropic said in a blog post it was creating a standardized benchmark with Amazon, Google, Microsoft and other partners that focuses on the outcomes and impact of a jailbreak, rather than simply whether one is possible.

The big picture: Even before the government began rethinking how to evaluate frontier AI models, industry was already redesigning the way their cyber capabilities are measured.

Irregular — a testing lab that works closely with frontier AI labs including OpenAI and Anthropic, as well as governments — released a new cyber benchmark in late June that measures whether AI models can carry out offensive cyber tasks such as remote code execution, privilege escalation and reaching a restricted network.

Other groups and companies, including Wiz and Vals AI, have been developing benchmarks that measure how well AI models perform similar offensive cyber operations.

Stanford warned in its 2026 AI Index that "evaluations intended to be challenging for years are saturated in months." 

Between the lines: While each effort measures something different, they all reflect the same shift: static tests no longer capture how frontier AI systems behave in realistic environments.

Earlier benchmarks focused on isolated tasks, such as solving a predictable, staged hacking challenge or discovering previously fixed vulnerabilities that weren't included in a model's training data.

But the agentic and reasoning capabilities of advanced AI models like Mythos Preview and GPT-5.5 are rapidly outpacing those tests, making it harder to understand what these cyber-capable systems can actually accomplish in practice.

"We're testing maybe the most bare bones fundamentals of capabilities," David Slater, co-founder of AI red-teaming company Armadin, told Axios. "We are very far away from measuring whether this thing can, in a real environment, do something dangerous."

Zoom in: Slater said his company's AI agents surpassed every public cyber benchmark within four weeks, using a combination of additional training and human expertise.

By the last quarter of 2025, the company — which offers continuous AI red teaming — had concluded that public cybersecurity benchmarks were "totally saturated" and "useless," he added. 

The next generation of benchmarks needs to measure whether models can carry out longer, more sophisticated cyberattacks and how much effort or cost is required to do so, he said.

That includes testing models in environments that resemble real production systems, providing a better indication of how quickly they can bypass security controls or move laterally through a network.

Yes, but: AI models are also getting better at attempting to break out of sandboxed environments, making it harder for defenders to evaluate them in isolated settings that don't interact with production systems, Slater said.

"The jailbreak attempts are nuts," he said. "We see this thing trying to escape and get out onto the cloud container that it's running on, using keys that it has access to, to do crazy stuff." 

What to watch: All eyes are on how Washington decides to evaluate the cyber capabilities of U.S. frontier AI models — especially as leading AI labs push back on the current, largely ad hoc testing process.

AI's hacking skills are outgrowing existing tests

The old ways of testing and evaluating new frontier AI models need a rewrite.

Illustration of a quill resting in a computer as if it were an ink well. 

AI & machine learning

Cybersecurity

Privacy & tech regulation

Tech Regulation

Iran's military fired at least two missiles at commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Monday night, two U.S. officials tell Axios.

The IRGC attacked a third commercial ship on Tuesday morning, a U.S. official said.

Why it matters: The reported attacks threaten to unravel a memorandum of understanding signed less than three weeks ago under which Iran agreed to halt attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.

And they come after a one-week agreement between the U.S. and Iran on halting attacks in the strait expired.

The U.S. is likely to retaliate with strikes against Iranian targets. 

Driving the news: The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said Monday that it had received a report from a tanker traveling south near Oman along the Strait of Hormuz coast that had been struck by an unknown projectile, causing a fire.

A U.S. official said a second commercial vessel had been struck by an Iranian missile.

Both vessels suffered significant damage but no casualties, the U.S. official said. 

State of play: A round of indirect talks between the U.S. and Iran in Doha, Qatar, last week ended without much progress on the issue of the Strait of Hormuz.

Strait of Hormuz: Iran attacks three ships in 24 hours, U.S. says

The reported attacks threaten to unravel a memorandum of understanding signed less than three weeks ago.

Calm sea with several cargo ships and barges, some in the foreground and others on the hazy horizon; distant ships fade into a pale gray sky.

Crude oil tankers, bulk carriers and vessels sit anchored around Qaboos Port in June in Muscat, Oman. Photo: Elke Scholiers/Getty Images

Defense & national security

President Trump signaled at the top of his meeting with Turkish President Erdoğan in Ankara on Tuesday that he's leaning towards allowing the country back into the F-35 program and selling the fighter jets to the Turkish air force.

Why it matters: Allowing Turkey to rejoin the program and selling it F-35 jets would be a shift in U.S. policy. Israel fears it would tilt the regional balance of power and violate U.S. commitments to maintain Israel's military edge.

If approved, Turkey would be the first country in the region to be part of the F-35 development and production program and the second country in the region to have F-35s after Israel.

Trump had previously said he would sell F-35s to Saudi Arabia without it being part of the program. But so far no deal has been approved and no jets have been delivered.

What he's saying: "Many people, including the people who are sitting here, think 'why wouldn't we do that'... Turkey has been in many ways much more loyal than other countries that we think would be loyal," Trump said when asked if he is going to sell the jets to Turkey. "So it is something we definitely would consider."

Trump said Turkey has been a great ally and claimed it could have joined the war with Iran, possibly on the Iranian side, but didn't. Iran fired several missiles that hit Turkish territory during the war.  

Erdoğan said the F-35s were promised to Turkey in the past and stressed he thinks the issue will move in a positive direction during his summit with Trump. 

Catch up quick: Turkey was expelled from the F-35 program in 2019 after it purchased Russia's S-400 air defense system, which U.S. officials said could compromise the advanced fighter jet.

Vice President Vance said last week that the Pentagon is conducting a review to determine how the U.S. could sell F-35s to Turkey despite its possession of the Russian-made missile defense system.

"There are certain things that we have to certify ​have happened ... ​in ⁠order to comply with American ​law. The president ​has ⁠asked us to do that," Vance ⁠told reporters in the Oval Office .

The intrigue: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu complained to Trump on Friday about Erdoğan's escalating anti-Israel rhetoric, Axios reported.

Netanyahu also asked Trump, to refrain from selling weapons systems that would help Turkey modernize its air force, especially the F-35 jets. 

State of play: 18 lawmakers led by Rep. Dina Titus (D-Nev.) sent a letter to House majority leader Rep. Steve Scalise (R-La.) and House minority leader Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) Tuesday calling on them to block any potential sale of F-35 jets to Turkey as long as its military still holds Russian-made S-400 air defense systems. 

They lawmakers claimed the sale under these conditions would violate U.S. law and sanctions.

Trump signals openness to selling Turkey F-35 fighter jets

Israel fears selling Turkey F-35s would shift the regional balance of power.

An F-35B fighter prepares to take off on the deck of HMS Prince of Wales off the coast of Iceland on July 5.

An F-35B fighter prepares to take off on the deck of HMS Prince of Wales off the coast of Iceland on July 5. Photo: Yui Mok/PA Images via Getty Images

Donald Trump

President Trump arrives at Tuesday's NATO summit in Ankara still furious at the allies who refused to help him fight Iran — and determined to make sure they know it.

Why it matters: For years, Trump has openly questioned whether America's closest allies are strong enough, loyal enough or useful enough to deserve the protection they've relied on since World War II.

Some allies' refusal to open air bases for U.S. strikes on Iran — or to send forces to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz — has hardened his NATO skepticism into open contempt.

Zoom in: Trump has spent the weeks since the Iran war publicly humiliating Europe's leaders, including those who once believed their personal rapport could shield them from his wrath.

He has mocked Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, claiming she "begged" him for a photo at the G7. On Monday, Trump posted a meme of Meloni with the caption: "Restraining order needed."

He broke the news of U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer's resignation, then called Starmer weak and suggested his hesitation over Iran showed he was "no Winston Churchill."

Even NATO chief Mark Rutte — Europe's preeminent "Trump whisperer" — struck out last month when he tried to flatter the president with a gold-lettered chart touting "The Trump Trillion" in allied defense spending.

Trump, who said he had considered skipping the NATO summit entirely, brushed it off: "We don't need their money — we don't need anything," he said. "I just want loyalty."

State of play: Fears are growing in Europe that Trump's contempt will show up where it matters most: America's military footprint.

The Pentagon has already cut the number of U.S. Army brigade combat teams in Europe from four to three, canceling a planned deployment of roughly 4,000 troops to Poland.

The U.S. also has moved to reduce the jets, tankers and warships available to NATO in a crisis — forcing Europe to plan for a war with less American firepower.

What to watch: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced a six-month review of U.S. forces in Europe last month, blasting allies as "shameful" for refusing to grant base access for the Iran strikes.

One U.S. official told Axios the review could lead to adjustments in Europe. A second U.S. official said a "NATO drawdown isn't really on the table" for the summit, but added: "The president isn't happy with the Europeans. It's the same old story."

U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker told reporters Sunday that Trump will push allies to move faster toward spending 5% of GDP on defense — part of a broader goal, he said, of shifting "the burden of the conventional defense of Europe" to Europe and Canada.

On that call, another administration official made clear Trump still wants to take control of Greenland from Denmark as "the best way to meet the defense needs of NATO" because it enables the U.S. to check Russia in the Arctic Ocean. Denmark and NATO allies are opposed.

The latest: Trump wouldn't rule out pulling more U.S. troops out of Europe, he said Tuesday at the top of his meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Ankara.

"We are going to see," Trump said, again calling himself "very disappointed" with NATO over the Iran war.

He claimed he might have skipped the leaders summit had it not been held in Turkey.

"We weren't treated well [by NATO] on Iran. … I didn't even want their help but before I asked they said they wouldn't be there," Trump said, adding that the U.S. has spent hundreds of billions of dollars protecting Europe.

Context: Erdoğan is one of the few NATO leaders still firmly in his good graces.

The Iran fallout will follow Trump: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu privately asked him on Friday to refrain from selling Turkey advanced weapons systems, citing Erdoğan's escalating anti-Israel rhetoric.

On Wednesday, Trump will participate in a NATO leaders' working session and hold bilateral meetings with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa.

He closes with a press conference before flying home, landing back at the White House Wednesday evening.

Between the lines: Trump's meeting with Zelensky could become the summit's most consequential side drama.

Ukrainian officials hope the meeting — their second in three weeks — will produce movement on two urgent priorities: Patriot air defense systems and a new U.S. push for a deal to end the war.

But European officials say the message from Washington in recent weeks has been that Ukraine now has the upper hand on the battlefield, giving the White House less urgency to launch a new diplomatic initiative.

"The Ukrainians are going more on offense and it might be making a difference," a U.S. official said.

At the G7 last month, Trump expressed frustration with Vladimir Putin and signaled he could walk back the understandings they reached at last year's Alaska summit on principles for ending the war.

Trump spoke over the weekend with both Zelensky and Putin. "I think he does feel pressure. He wants to end it. Ukraine wants to end it too. We are talking to both sides," Trump told reporters Monday.

A U.S. official put it more starkly: "We think Putin wants to end this because it's all too much. The economic situation. The stagnation. The death. The losses are just staggering. He's running out of meat for the meat grinder."

"But Putin doesn't think the way we do," the official added. "So if we think it's rational to stop, he might not."

Editor's note: This story has been updated with President Trump's Tuesday comments.

Trump's Iran grudge hangs over NATO summit

Trump's NATO skepticism has hardened into open contempt.

Photo illustration of four images of Trump delivering a speech divided by the NATO logo.

Photo illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios. Photos: Scott Olson, Spencer Platt/Getty Images

Russia

Ukraine

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