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Axios 2028

The Democratic Party is divided. But almost all Democratic voters still agree on one thing: They really like Barack Obama.

Why it matters: Obama remains the most powerful and popular Democrat in America, with the ability to play kingmaker in the presidential election — if he chooses to.

Driving the news: Obama's de facto leadership of the party has been on full display the past month.

Most of the top Democrats eyeing runs for the White House in 2028, along with several up-and-coming leaders in the party, made the pilgrimage to Chicago on June 19 to celebrate the new Obama Presidential Center, where they waxed nostalgically about his presidency.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom told reporters that he "literally started tearing up" as he toured the center.

A June CNN poll found that 96% of Democrats have a favorable view of Obama. (Only 71% of Democrats said the same of Joe Biden.)

A University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov poll had Obama more popular than pop star Taylor Swift.

Several Democrats in tough primary races — including people who at times have had fraught relationships with Obama, such as Florida Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz — regularly feature him in their ads, videos and website messages.

Some prominent Democrats such as Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff even occasionally sound like Obama in their speaking cadence, with a building crescendo to an aspirational message.

Between the lines: Obama is actively working to navigate the Democratic Party out of the Trump era, but prefers to exert his influence behind the scenes.

"What I've tried to do is to move from player to coach," he told ABC News last month. He frequently is a sounding board for potential 2028 candidates, as he was in the run-up to the 2020 election.

"I strongly believe that my highest and best use now is to help find the next set of leaders who are going to move us forward," he told the New Yorker. He added that "the very best leaders can tap into the zeitgeist of the moment."

As part of that effort, he recently appeared with young, rising stars, including New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Texas Senate candidate James Talarico.

Obama also often subtly weighs in on tactics and policies when he thinks Democrats aren't moving in the right direction. 

He's been hitting the phones to help come up with an artificial intelligence policy that's not "simply a knee-jerk 'Screw the billionaires in tech,' because the genie's out of the bottle," he told the New Yorker.

"If we do not have an agenda for that, then I think some of the populist impulses that have been there already can go in all kinds of stray directions," he said.

Flashback: Obama has been a critical figure in determining each Democratic nominee since his presidency.

In 2016, his clear preference for Hillary Clinton to be his successor made it difficult for him to unite the party after the divisive primary — which ultimately hurt Clinton in the general election.

In 2020, Obama was less overt but still worked behind the scenes to push the party to consolidate behind Biden.

And in 2024, Obama was part of the establishment's effort to get Biden to end his reelection campaign after his disastrous debate performance against Trump.

A spokesperson for Obama declined to comment.

Zoom out: Obama also believes that culture affects politics more than politics affects culture, so he's stayed relevant outside of politics.

For the United States' 250th anniversary, Obama produced an HBO series — a Larry David–led sketch comedy show set during pivotal moments in American history — that begins with the former president talking about his vision for America. He'll appear in one of the sketches, Variety reported.

Obama also sat courtside at the NBA's All-Star game this year and filmed a video with Minnesota Timberwolves star Anthony Edwards. After the game, Edwards — who was 15 when Obama left office — said the former president was his "favorite person in the world."

Bottom line: Obama knows that what happens in 2028 affects not just the country and the Democratic Party, but also his own legacy.

He's seemed unsure how to interpret his presidency being followed by Trump — a man his opposite in so many ways.

That dynamic is reflected in how Obama approached his presidential memoir.

Instead of one memoir, as most recent presidents have done, Obama divided his book into two parts.

The first part — published after the 2020 election, "A Promised Land" — doesn't end with Obama's first term, but rather the emergence of Trump on the political scene by peddling the racist birther conspiracy theory about Obama. 

The final chapter includes the weekend in 2011 when Obama oversaw the operation to kill Osama bin Laden after skewering Trump at the White House Correspondents' Dinner with the future president in attendance.

Trump "was a spectacle, and in the United States of America in 2011, that was a form of power," Obama wrote. "Far from being ostracized for the conspiracies he'd peddled, he in fact had never been bigger." 

Obama's influence shadows Democrats' race to 2028

He has the ability to play kingmaker in the next presidential election — if he chooses to.

Photo illustration of former U.S. President Barack Obama with radial lines behind him in the style of his 2008 campaign poster 

Illustration: Sarah Grillo / Axios. Photo: Win McNamee / Getty Images

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2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

Politics & Policy

Michigan state Sen. Mallory McMorrow announced Sunday that she is suspending her campaign for U.S. Senate, narrowing a marquee Democratic primary to a two-way race a month before Election Day.

Why it matters: It is a major shakeup to what has already been a chaotic Democratic primary in a Trump-won swing state Democrats likely need to retake the Senate.

McMorrow's withdrawal leaves moderate Rep. Haley Stevens and progressive Dr. Abdul El-Sayed as the two Democratic hopefuls vying to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters.

The development marks a stunning reversal of fortunes for McMorrow, a rising Democratic star who had polled competitively for much of the race.

What they're saying: "Today, I'm announcing that I'm suspending my campaign for United States Senate," McMorrow said in a video posted to social media Sunday.

McMorrow did not endorse Stevens or El-Sayed, but said "whoever wins this primary on Aug. 4 will have my full support."

Stevens and El-Sayed both released statements praising McMorrow, whose name will remain on the ballot.

Catch up quick: McMorrow rocketed to national fame in 2022 with a fiery state Senate floor speech defending LGBTQ+ kids after a Republican colleague accused her of wanting to "groom and sexualize children." 

She built her Senate bid on that profile as a fighter and was the only candidate to vow she'd oppose Chuck Schumer as party leader.

But the primary came to be dominated by Israel, where she struggled to hold a middle lane: El-Sayed ran as a champion of Palestinian rights and Stevens as a self-described "proud pro-Israel Democrat" backed by AIPAC, leaving little room between them.

What's next: El-Sayed said in a video reacting to McMorrow's announcement, "The question to all of us now is this: Are we willing to allow AIPAC, big corporates, Chuck Schumer … to choose who our Democratic nominee is?"

Stevens said in her statement that she is "excited to continue to make my case to Michiganders why I'm the strongest Democrat to defeat" likely GOP nominee Mike Rogers.

Editor's note: This is a breaking news story and will be updated.

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McMorrow suspends Michigan Senate bid in shock move

It's a stunning reversal of fortunes for the Democratic Party rising star.

Michigan state Sen. Mallory McMorrow speaks while campaigning at the Michigan Democratic Nominating Convention in Detroit on April 19, 2026, during her U.S. Senate campaign.

Michigan state Sen. Mallory McMorrow campaigns at the Michigan Democratic Nominating Convention in Detroit on April 19, 2026, during her now-ended bid for the U.S. Senate. Photo: Jim West/UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

Elections 2024

U.S. star striker Folarin Balogun can play against Belgium in Monday's World Cup match after FIFA suspended his one-game ban, soccer's world governing body announced Sunday.

Why it matters: Belgian officials said they were "astonished" by the decision. A win Monday would send the U.S. to its first World Cup quarterfinal since 2002. 

Balogun, the breakout scorer of the Americans' best tournament run in a generation, had been set to miss the make-or-break match before FIFA reversed course.

What they're saying: The Royal Belgian Football Association said it was investigating "all potential options" to protect "the legitimate rights of all participating teams."

Driving the news: Balogun received a red card in the United States' 2-0 win over Bosnia-Herzegovina.

FIFA said in a statement that in line with the governing body's Disciplinary Code, "the implementation of the match suspension is suspended for a probationary period of one year."

If Balogun "commits another infringement of a similar nature and gravity during the probationary period, the suspension shall be revoked and the sanction enforced without prejudice to any additional sanction imposed for the new infringement," it added.

The Athletic, owned by the New York Times, first reported the reprieve.

U.S. Soccer didn't immediately respond to Axios' Sunday afternoon request for comment.

Catch up quick: The U.S. won its group with eight goals and six points, its best-ever group stage performance, beating Paraguay and Australia before coming up short to Turkey.

Balogun was sent off against Bosnia after his cleat scraped down a defender's leg to his ankle while chasing a loose ball. The controversial dismissal came after a video review and triggered an automatic one-game suspension.

The call drew criticism at home. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the team was treated unfairly and urged FIFA to add an appeals process, and fans pressed FIFA to reverse its decision.

What they're saying: President Trump thanked FIFA for its reversal in a  Truth Social post.

"Thank you to FIFA for doing what was right, and reversing a great injustice!" he wrote. 

By the numbers: Balogun's three goals lead the U.S. and tied Landon Donovan for the second-most by an American at a single World Cup. He's scored or assisted in every game he's played.

Flashback: The U.S. has reached a World Cup quarterfinal just once in the modern era, when it lost to Germany in 2002.

The only time the nation has seen more success was in 1930, when the team took third, still its best-ever finish.

What's next: The U.S. faces Belgium on Monday at 8pm ET in Seattle. 

The winner will face Spain or Portugal in the quarterfinals.

Go deeper: Trump official sought FIFA review of Balogun red card

Editor's note: This story has been updated with comment by the Royal Belgian Football Association, FIFA and President Trump. 

Trump official sought FIFA review of Balogun red card

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FIFA clears Balogun for USMNT's Belgium match

The U.S. is one win away from its first quarterfinal since 2002.

U.S. forward Folarin Balogun and Bosnia and Herzegovina defender Tarik Muharemović battle for the ball during a 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 32 match in Santa Clara, California, moments before the challenge that led to Balogun's red card after a VAR review.

U.S. forward Folarin Balogun (right) challenges Bosnia and Herzegovina defender Tarik Muharemović; Balogun was shown a red card after a VAR review. Photo: Michael Steele/Getty Images

Shifts in technology and media are changing the way we play, watch and understand sports. Business models are adapting and social change is forcing those in charge of teams and leagues to reconsider decades-old practices.

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A grid of line charts displaying the average hours per day spent socializing by age group from 2005 to 2025. Each age group shows a general decline in socializing hours, with the 15-24 age group starting at nearly 1 hour and decreasing to around 0.6 hours, while other age groups trend similarly downward.

Average hours per day spent socializing, by age

Data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Chart: Danielle Alberti/Axios

Americans are spending less time hanging out than they were 20 years ago — and the trend cuts across every generation, Axios' Erica Pandey writes from new American Time Use Survey data.

Why it matters: It's a fundamental shift in the way we live our lives that has implications for everything from what we believe to how long we live.

By the numbers: Average time spent socializing per day has fallen from 45 to 35 minutes over the last 20 years.

The decline is steepest among young people: 15- to 24-year-olds went from spending an hour a day hanging out with others to 35 minutes.

Between the lines: Sociologists and psychologists point to several trends driving this phenomenon, which Substack writer Derek Thompson dubbed "The Anti-Social Century" in the Atlantic last year.

We're all on our smartphones, often interacting through screens instead of face to face — even though social media is no substitute for spending time together in person. Teens, in particular, spend an average of 4.8 hours a day on apps like TikTok, Instagram and Snapchat, according to Gallup.

The shift to remote work — and life — during the pandemic has persisted, keeping more of us homebound.

Longer-term trends are reshaping daily life in ways that make isolation easier. Homes are bigger and more comfortable, with larger TVs. Virtually every restaurant is on a food delivery app, making it easier than ever to stay in.

What to watch: Also contributing to the trend is the decline of gathering spaces, Axios' Avery Lotz writes.

A 2025 report from CU Boulder researchers uncovered widespread closures of all kinds of hangout spots — from libraries to coffee shops to museums — in the last decade or so.

Churches are also shuttering at unprecedented rates, Axios' Russell Contreras reports.

Americans of all ages are spending less time socializing

It's a fundamental shift in the way we live our lives that has implications for everything from what we believe to how long we live.

A grid of line charts displaying the average hours per day spent socializing by age group from 2005 to 2025. Each age group shows a general decline in socializing hours, with the 15-24 age group starting at nearly 1 hour and decreasing to around 0.6 hours, while other age groups trend similarly down

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President Trump championed American military might, a Christian U.S. and his top legislative goal in a delayed Fourth of July speech from the National Mall, wrapping just minutes before the calendar switched to Sunday morning.

The big picture: The speech caps a holiday interrupted by weather-related holdups and months of semiquincentennial commemorations — many of which centered on the president and his vision of the nation at 250 years old.

Driving the news: Throughout the speech, Trump nodded to a modern-day battle against communism, a frequent element of his midterm messaging.

"We don't want communists in our country," he said. "Never worked, and it never will work."

Trump later added, "Communism is a loser, and it always will be."

Zoom out: The president's language was also markedly religious — in line with the tone from the White House and its allies that has steered America's 250th birthday toward prayer and divine guidance, Axios' Russell Contreras reports.

"All over the world, they try and be like us, nobody can be like us, and with God's help, we will always be this, or even better," he said.

"As our Declaration of Independence tells us, we are all made in the image of one almighty God, and a communist will never say that, that's for sure," he added.

Several military veterans and the Artemis II crew joined the stage to cheers as the president touted America's history of military achievements, sacrifice and innovation.

But he also diverted to push for passage of the SAVE America Act voter ID bill, a fixation of the president's that has become a source of friction for his congressional allies.

"There will be no mail-in ballots, except for illness, disability, military deployment, or travel, and you won't have cheating on the elections anymore," said the president, who often circulates unfounded claims of mass election fraud.

Catch up quick: Trump took the stage after storms forced throngs of event-goers to evacuate, seek temporary shelter, and then be re-screened through security checkpoints when gates reopened.

The timing of the celebration's finale fireworks was already in flux, with Trump pledging he'd give a "really long speech" despite the heat wave bringing triple-digit temperatures to D.C.

Go deeper: Trump declares D.C.'s July 4 celebration a "TRUMP RALLY"

Trump declares D.C.'s July 4 celebration a "TRUMP RALLY"

Trump's God, guns and anticommunist Fourth of July

"We don't want communists in our country," he said in the speech.

President Trump claps his hands together while wearing a dark blue suit, a white collared shirt, a pin and a red tie and standing behind a microphone and in front of an American flag on a stage.

President Trump during the "Salute to America" event on the National Mall in Washington, D.C., on Saturday, July 4. Photo: Jim Lo Scalzo/EPA/Bloomberg via Getty Images

President Trump told Axios Saturday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked him for a meeting at the White House, and that it could take place as early as next week after Trump returns from the NATO summit.

"We get along very good. [Netanyahu] knows who the boss is," Trump said in a brief phone interview, referring to himself. 

Why it matters: This would be the first meeting between the two leaders since their dramatic Situation Room meeting in February, when Netanyahu presented his plan for launching a joint war against Iran.

An Israeli official said next week might be too soon for the visit to take place because of Trump's trip to Turkey, where the NATO summit will take place on July 7-8.

"It might take place the week after," the official said.

What they're saying: The Israeli prime minister's office said Netanyahu called Trump on Friday to congratulate him on the 250th Independence Day of the United States.

"During their conversation, the Prime Minister said that the United States is a guarantor of global freedom, and that Israel greatly values the close relationship between the two nations. Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Trump agreed to meet soon in the United States," Netanyahu's office said.

Between the lines: People in Trump's orbit have grown increasingly skeptical and disillusioned with Netanyahu in the months since their February meeting.

"Many of Trump's closest advisers think that Bibi was wrong about everything," a U.S. official said.

Trump lashed out at Netanyahu over Israel's escalation in Lebanon in a phone call last month, calling the prime minister "crazy" and accusing him of ingratitude.

The tensions have deepened a broader Republican schism over Israel and the war, with MAGA influencers like Tucker Carlson accusing Trump of being beholden to Netanyahu.

The big picture: Trump and Netanyahu's national security and foreign policy objectives — along with their domestic political interests — have diverged over the last two months amid the war and other regional issues.

Despite Netanyahu's reservations, Trump signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) last month extending the ceasefire with Iran and launching fresh nuclear talks.

Trump also pressed Netanyahu to restrain IDF operations in Lebanon — where fighting had become an obstacle to the Iran talks — and to sign a framework agreement requiring an initial withdrawal from the south

Zoom out: A meeting with Trump at the White House would be hugely important for Netanyahu as he kicks off his campaign for the October elections in Israel, where polls currently have him trailing.

Driving the news: Trump told Axios he's following the funeral of former Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was assassinated on the first day of the war in a joint U.S.-Israeli operation.

Trump claimed the Iranians "are begging to make a deal," but said both sides decided to take a week off from the talks until the events around Khamenei's funeral end. In the meantime, he said, neither side will shoot at the other.

"They are all there. One shot [and we can take them all out], but we are not going to do that because then we would have nobody to negotiate with," Trump said.

He added that he was surprised to see some Iranians crying at the funeral, saying he thought people hated Khamenei. "Maybe it's fake tears," Trump mused.

funeral of former Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei

Exclusive: Trump says Netanyahu "knows who the boss is" ahead of possible WH visit

The White House visit could take place as early as next week.

Netanyahu and Trump in the Oval Office on Feb. 4. Photo: Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images

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World

We're alive at the single greatest moment in U.S. and human history. By a lot.

Why it matters: It's not even close, by almost every empirical measure. We live longer, better, richer, healthier and freer than those before us.

Yes, we screw a lot up. Always have. Always will. But nothing bothers me more than the widespread pessimism and plummeting patriotism — when it should be a time of great hope and possibility.

To me, that yawning gap between our reality and how people feel about it is among the biggest macro issues facing us.

Why America still rocks

There's no better place on Earth to start a business, take a risk, dream big — doing what you chose to do, where you chose to do it.

We're the widest, deepest, richest, most transparent economy anywhere — the engine behind phenomenal growth and wealth.

We're the greatest meritocracy on earth, unshackled from limits of age or pedigree. We're wired for risk.

We can think, say and worship as we please without fear of imprisonment. Faith may be fading, but the freedom to practice is unfettered.

We stir and enjoy a magical cocktail of democracy, capitalism and individual freedom that produces history-bending ideas like AI.

We're protected by the world's strongest military — at once the most feared and the most sought after by other nations for help.

We've got two protective oceans on our shoulders, friendly neighbors to our north and south, and abundant energy beneath us.

We've racked up four straight years of record energy production on our soil.

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