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National

All the time and effort poured into prosecuting Donald Trump only ended up putting him — and every future president — further above the law.

The big picture: Efforts to prosecute Trump for his first-term conduct are officially on ice, and he's entering his second term with the knowledge that it'll be extraordinarily difficult for anyone to prosecute him for anything he does this time around.

Driving the news: Special counsel Jack Smith moved Monday to drop two cases against Trump, for subverting the results of the 2020 election and mishandling classified documents.

Sentencing for his conviction on 34 fraud-related charges in his New York hush money case was postponed indefinitely, and the case may be dismissed.

The election interference case in Georgia is technically still in limbo, but don't hold your breath.

By far the most significant outcome from all of those charges was the Supreme Court's ruling that former presidents are immune from prosecution for their "official acts."

Because the Justice Department won't continue trying to prosecute Trump while he's president, the courts won't fill in the details of what constitutes an "official act" until the next time a former president is indicted. That could be a while.

But the Supreme Court's initial definition was broad enough to give Trump, and the presidents who come after him, a whole lot of confidence that hardly anything they do while in office will land them in prison later.

What they're saying: The Justice Department should have moved faster to begin prosecuting Trump once President Biden took office, some Democrats and liberal legal experts argue.

Smith wasn't appointed until late 2022, and delivered his first indictment just over 6 months later.

If that process had moved faster, they say, Smith would have had time to keep litigating the definition of an "official act," and might have gotten some part of his Jan. 6 indictment to stick.

The bottom line: Trump was the first former president convicted of a felony. But after four trials and dozens of charges, he returns to office on firmer legal footing than ever.

How prosecuting Trump backfired

The only Trump case that really mattered was the Supreme Court's.

Illustration of Lady Justice being blindfolded with a red necktie. 

2020 election

Donald Trump

2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

Politics & Policy

Israel's Security Cabinet on Tuesday approved a U.S.-brokered ceasefire agreement with Lebanon, which will begin on Wednesday morning local time, Israeli officials said.

Why it matters: The agreement, which was also approved by the Lebanese side, will end more than a year of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah. It will also allow hundreds of thousands of civilians on both sides of the border to gradually return home.

More than 3,500 Lebanese have been killed and more than 15,000 injured in the fighting, which began when Hezbollah attacked Israel in the wake of the Oct. 7 attacks and escalated dramatically when Israel launched a ground invasion two months ago. About 140 Israeli soldiers and civilians have been killed.

The ceasefire agreement includes a 60-day transition period during which the Israeli military is to withdraw from southern Lebanon, the Lebanese army is to deploy in areas close to the border, and Hezbollah is to move its heavy weapons north of the Litani River.

Israeli officials said the ceasefire will begin on Wednesday 4am local time.

Zoom in: The deal includes a U.S.-led oversight committee to monitor implementation and address violations.

The U.S. agreed to give Israel a letter of assurances that includes support for Israeli military action against threats from Lebanese territory "according to international law."

"Israel will always have the right to address threats on its security like every country has," Secretary of State Tony Blinken said on Tuesday in a press conference on the sidelines of the G7 foreign ministers meeting in Italy.

Friction point: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday said that the duration of the ceasefire will depend on whether Hezbollah violates the deal. He claimed he reached an understanding with the U.S. that Israel will "maintain full military freedom of action."

"If Hezbollah violates the agreement and tries to arm itself, we will attack. If it tries to renew terrorist infrastructure near the border, we will attack. If it launches a rocket, if it digs a tunnel, if it brings in a truck with missiles, we will attack."

But two U.S. officials told Axios Netanyahu's description of the agreement wasn't accurate.

While it gives Israel freedom of action to respond to threats from southern Lebanon, such as preparations for a rocket attack or building of Hezbollah outposts near the border, Israel would only be able to respond to less urgent threats — like Hezbollah rebuilding military infrastructure north of the Litani river — after consultation with the U.S., and if the Lebanese military did not deal with the threat on its own.

"It is impossible to sign a ceasefire agreement if Israel can shoot at anything it wants in Lebanon whenever it wants," a U.S. official said.

What they're saying: In the middle of the cabinet meeting, Netanyahu released a recorded speech and said he supports a ceasefire in Lebanon for three reasons:

The first is the need to focus on the Iranian threat.

The second, Netanyahu said, was to allow time to replenish Israel's forces and weapons stocks. "I say it openly: there were major delays in the supply of weapons and ammunition. This delay will be released soon," he said.

The third reason, according to Netanyahu, was to isolate Hamas in Gaza. "They were counting on Hezbollah to fight alongside them. Now they are left alone. The pressure on them will increase and this will help to free our hostages," he said.

"The Security Cabinet approved the U.S. proposal for a ceasefire arrangement in Lebanon by a majority of 10 ministers to one, the Prime Minister's Office said in a statement.

"Israel appreciates the U.S. contribution to the process, and reserves its right to act against any threat to its security."

Minutes after the security cabinet approved the agreement President Biden spoke with Netanyahu.

Biden also spoke to Lebanese Prime Minister Mikati who told him Lebanon agrees to the ceasefire, a senior U.S. official said.

Mikati in a tweet said Lebanon welcomes the ceasefire agreement and that the Lebanese government is committed to implementing UN security council resolution 1701 regarding southern Lebanon and to increasing the deployment of the Lebanese military along the border. 

Biden then gave a speech at the White House Rose Garden and said the ceasefire agreement is intended to be a permanent ceasefire and added that in the next 60 days Israel Defense Forces will withdraw from southern Lebanon and the Lebanese military will deploy in these areas.

Biden stressed Hezbollah will not be allowed to pose a threat to Israel or rebuild military infrastructure in southern Lebanon. 

Biden emphasized that there will be no U.S. soldiers in southern Lebanon, but the U.S. and France will provide assistance to implement the agreement.

Split screen: The Israeli cabinet meeting took place amid a significant increase in strikes by both Israel and Hezbollah on Tuesday ahead of a possible ceasefire.

The Beirut skyline was covered with smoke from the large number of Israeli airstrikes in the city, while air raid sirens have been going off almost non-stop in cities and villages across northern Israel due to Hezbollah rocket and drone attacks.

The big picture: Netanyahu has yet to agree to a ceasefire deal with Hamas to end the war in Gaza.

Blinken said the agreement will deescalate tensions in the region and could help to get a Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal because the militant group "will know the cavalry isn't coming," referring to Hezbollah.

In his speech at the White House on Tuesday, Biden said there now needs to be a ceasefire deal in Gaza. 

"Hamas needs to make a choice. The only way out of this is to release the hostages, including American citizens," he said. 

What to watch: Biden said that in the coming days, he will make another effort together with Egypt, Qatar and Turkey to push for a hostage-release and ceasefire in Gaza deal. 

He said that if a ceasefire is reached, the U.S. will be ready to sign a series of historic deals with Saudi Arabia, including a defense treaty and economic assurances "along with a credible path" to the establishment of a Palestinian state and full normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. 

"I believe that this is still possible. In the remaining time I have in office, I will work to push this," Biden said, adding that Israel will also have to make difficult decisions.

On the current trajectory, though, it appears the Gaza crisis will continue into the Trump administration.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with a statement from the Israeli Prime Minister's Office and from Biden's speech on Tuesday.

Israel and Lebanon agree on a ceasefire

Israel will withdraw from Lebanon and end a year of fighting.

Smoke from Israeli strikes rises from Beirut's southern suburbs. Photo: AFP via Getty

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Washington D.C.

Axios D.C.

Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin made a pitch to incoming staffers for President-elect Donald Trump's administration: Move to Virginia, just across the Potomac from D.C.

Why it matters: The Republican governor wants the blue suburbs of Northern Virginia to welcome MAGA world. 

What they're saying: "We offer a great quality of life," Youngkin says in a video posted on X on Tuesday, touting "award-winning schools, where parents matter" — a rallying cry from his upset gubernatorial win in 2021.

He also cites lower income taxes than D.C. and Maryland.

Between the lines: GOP insiders already favor Virginia neighborhoods like Old Town Alexandria, home to Paul Manafort and cigar lounge hangouts.

Not to mention the elite ZIP codes of McLean and Great Falls. Trump National Golf Club is in Potomac Falls.

Sen. J.D. Vance lives in the otherwise liberal enclave of Del Ray.

By the numbers: While Trump took just 20% of the vote in Arlington, 24% in Alexandria and 31% in Fairfax County, that's considerably higher than the 7% he got in D.C.

As for the Maryland suburbs, Trump won 22% in Montgomery County and 11% in Prince George's County.

Zoom out: Northern Virginia is poised for a roaring 2020s, helped on by its defense-tech corridor. 

Youngkin did suffer a setback early this year when a plan to relocate the Washington Capitals and Wizards from downtown D.C. to Alexandria crumbled in the legislature. 

Go deeper: This is the Trumpiest neighborhood in D.C.

This is the Trumpiest neighborhood in D.C.

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Get smarter, faster on what matters in D.C. with Mimi Montgomery, Cuneyt Dil, and Anna Spiegel.

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Glenn Youngkin wants Trump staffers to move to Virginia

Trump won 31% in Fairfax County, much higher than his 7% in D.C.

Youngkin campaigning with Trump on Nov. 2. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Elections 2024

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said on Tuesday that she would impose tariffs in retaliation to those proposed by President-elect Trump in a newly outlined plan for the start of his administration.

Why it matters: Leaders from Mexico, China and Canada have all argued that the U.S. and their countries mutually benefit from cooperative trade agreements. 

Catch up quick: Trump on Monday said he would impose new tariffs to stop the flow of drugs and migrants.

A tariff of 25% of all goods coming from Canada and Mexico would take effect on Jan. 20. Imports from China would face a 10% tariff above any additional tariffs. 

State of play: The Chinese and Canadian governments also responded to Trump's plan saying that trade cooperation is mutually beneficial. 

"No one will win in a trade war or a tariff war," Chinese Embassy Spokesperson Liu Pengyu said in a statement, per Reuters. 

The U.S., Mexico and Canada have a free trade agreement as of July 1, 2020 that substituted the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and promises "reciprocal trade supporting high-paying jobs." 

Zoom in: "Among Mexico's main exporters to the United States are General Motors, Stellantis, and Ford Motor Company, which arrived in Mexico 80 years ago," Sheinbaum said in a Tuesday letter to Trump.

"Why impose a tariff that would jeopardize them? Such a measure would be unacceptable and would lead to inflation and job losses in both the United States and Mexico."

Zoom out: Sheinbaum also addressed Trump's plan to deport millions of undocumented immigrants at the start of his term. 

She said a surge in weapons in Mexico and the flow of drugs to the U.S. is a U.S. public health problem. 

"If even a small percentage of what the United States allocates to war were instead dedicated to building peace and fostering development, it would address the underlying causes of human mobility," she said. 

Go deeper: Trump promises tariffs on Canada and Mexico, plus higher China levies

Mexico's president would impose retaliatory tariffs in response to Trump's plan

A tariff of 25% of all goods coming from Canada and Mexico would take effect on Jan. 20, Trump said.

Axios

Tuesday's top stories

How prosecuting Trump backfired

Israel and Lebanon agree on a ceasefire

Glenn Youngkin wants Trump staffers to move to Virginia

Mexico's president would impose retaliatory tariffs in response to Trump's plan

Medicare and Medicaid would cover Ozempic, Wegovy under new Biden rule

Why Trump's expected tax credit move could fragment EV market

Trump promises tariffs on Canada and Mexico, plus higher China levies

Target is losing its high-income shoppers to Walmart

Scoop: Trump eyes AI czar

Scoop: Kevin McCarthy launches new tech and innovation institute

How RFK Jr. could use levers of HHS to shape vaccine and drug outcomes

Private-sector paydays threaten Mike Johnson's House majority