Private-sector paydays threaten Mike Johnson's House majority
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House Republicans' hunt for cold, hard cash threatens to further complicate Speaker Mike Johnson's majority — which is on track to be the narrowest since the Great Depression.
Why it matters: Johnson's power flows from his close bond with President-elect Trump. Keeping that power will depend on how many of Johnson's members he can convince to defer their big paydays until after 2025.
- Salary is a major sore spot for House lawmakers. They last got a pay bump to $174,000 in 2009 and are banned from the lucrative advances on book deals that their Senate colleagues enjoy.
Just Monday, Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) joined — and then deactivated — a Cameo account offering personalized video pep talks for $250 a pop.
- Her colleagues aren't that far off: Multiple House Republicans have told Axios they'd be eager to monetize their X accounts, among other side hustles.
🚨 But the real threat to Johnson's majority is people leaving for private-sector jobs.
- At least five House lawmakers quit Congress early in the last two years to pursue private-sector paychecks. Another four resigned early for other reasons, two died in office and one was expelled.
- If similar patterns play out over the next two years, Johnson's majority is permanently at risk.
- "They're going to need to do something because it impacts recruitment," one member told Axios. "You'll get rich people or people that can't get better jobs."
Between the lines: Johnson will start Jan. 3 with (at most!) a 221-213 vote majority, before falling as low as 218-216 until special elections can replace Trump Cabinet appointees.
- Florida will hold a special election on April 1 to fill the seats of former Rep. Matt Gaetz and Trump's national security adviser nominee Rep. Michael Waltz.
- New York expects a similar timeline to replace Rep. Elise Stefanik, who's nominated as UN ambassador.
The bottom line: Even at full strength, the House GOP majority will be at most 221-214. That's a margin nightmares are made of.
