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National

HUDSON, N.H. — Axios sat down with former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley on Tuesday at a VFW hall here to discuss the state of the presidential race, her differences with former President Trump and what she hopes to accomplish at the GOP debate on Aug. 23.

Why it matters: There's no sign that Trump's legal troubles — which could peak with a staggering fourth indictment in Georgia this week — have done anything but strengthen his iron grip on the GOP base. But Haley says she isn't concerned — and believes the real race will begin after the debate.

Haley on drawing sharper contrasts with Trump: "The media just wants us to punch Trump. They do, and I will tell you if you ask me about policy differences, I'm happy to talk policy differences. If you want me to pick a personal fight with him, I have no reason to."

"You know, I had a great working relationship with him in the administration. Do we differ on policies? Yeah, we do. If that comes up, I'm happy to say it. But I'm not Trump-obsessed. I'm just not. I don't think you have to punch him all the time. I think there will be a time and place where we have disagreements and that'll play out. But I just don't think that our job is to go and give media more fodder and create a frenzy just because that's what's going to get your attention."

On her biggest policy differences with Trump: "He thinks Jan. 6 was a beautiful day. I think Jan. 6 was a terrible day. He spent like a drunken sailor. I am an accountant and I think that we have to get our debt under control, and we've got to stop this ridiculous spending that's caused the inflation we've got.

"He did a great job of focusing on China, but he just focused on trade. I think we need to be talking about the infiltration they're doing in our country. I think we need to talk about the modernization of their military. I think we need to talk about the fact that they see us as an enemy and they are preparing for war with us."

"He thinks the Ukraine-Russia situation [is] a territorial dispute. I don't. I know that a win for Russia is a win for China, and we better pay attention to that."

On whether Trump's Jan. 6 indictment is disqualifying: "Look, I didn't rush to put out a statement because I'm tired of responding to all the Trump drama.

"I've said that Jan. 6 was a terrible day, but he said the election was stolen. We have freedom of speech in this country. I don't think anyone can go to jail for saying an election was stolen. ... "

"I'm not diving into every one of these indictments. I don't obsess over it. In all of these town halls, no one is asking me about Trump. Nobody's asking me about indictments."

On whether Trump should debate: "I've never known him to be scared of anything. I would be shocked if he's scared to get on a debate stage. But we'll find out."

On what she hopes to accomplish at the first debate: "To be my true self. I love debates because I think it's a great opportunity for people to see who their options are. And I love policy."

On the state of the race: "Once the first debate starts and we get past Labor Day, it's off to the races."

"Everyone's panicked over how high Trump's numbers are. We're not worried about that. We're worried about making sure that we are touching as many hands, answering as many questions, doing as many town halls as we possibly can."

Nikki Haley "not worried" about Trump's dominant polling lead

"Once the first debate starts and we get past Labor Day, it's off to the races."

Nikki Haley

Politics & Policy

The millions of Americans who migrated to the Sunbelt over the past decade are now stuck in the middle of this summer's brutal and record-breaking heat wave.

Why it matters: The country's fastest-growing region is enduring some of the highest temperatures in the U.S., threatening the health of some of America's most vulnerable people and billions in economic activity.

What's happening: America's population — attracted by lower taxes, bigger homes and lower cost of living for retirees — is moving to more vulnerable locations, where the effects of climate change present huge risks.

Phoenix set numerous all-time heat records in July.

Miami experienced its worst heat wave on record.

The big picture: Many of the fastest-growing U.S. metro areas have well-known risks. Some don't have enough water to support their large populations. Others are in the path of hurricanes and other natural disasters.

The heat this year — and the prospect of hotter summers in the future — has made those risks ever more apparent. But it hasn't been enough to deter Americans from moving to the region.

Over the past decade, the Sunbelt accounted for 75% of U.S. population growth. The region is now home to about 50% of the nation's population.

💬 Zoom in: Axios' readers from across the nation shared why they stay — or want to leave — their Sunbelt state, despite the cruel heat.

David B. moved to Phoenix in 2018 to be closer to family. But this summer's "absolutely brutal" heat, coupled with skyrocketing prices, is pushing them to consider a move back to cooler climates.

Cam H., who has been living in Houston since 1988, said if his entire career wasn't tied to the city's energy and power generation, he would "definitely be looking to get out of here."

Laima B., who moved to Houston from Missouri in 2015, said she's looking to go back north due to the heat and concerns about the strength of hurricanes. "I'll take Tornado Alley over the ginormous destructive Gulf-fueled hurricanes any day!"

The other side: Tracee L., who moved to Atlanta from Portland, Oregon, this summer, said she doesn't have any weather regrets. While her electricity bill might creep up, warmer winters will compensate for it.

Between the lines: The issue isn't just about how hot it is now — but about how much hotter it's going to get and for how long each year, said Parag Khanna, chief executive of Climate Alpha, a startup that uses AI to measure climate resilience.

Heat isn't the only climate risk states are facing. Florida, for example, is more vulnerable to hurricanes than temperature risks and heat waves.

Threat level: With more severe and frequent extreme weather events, a climate housing bubble threatens to erode real estate prices in much of the U.S. in the coming years, Axios' Andrew Freedman reports.

Khanna notes there are still climate-resilient options in the Sunbelt, including Raleigh, Charlotte and Dallas.

Go deeper: Climate change boosted July's heat for 81% of world's population, study says

Climate change boosted July's heat for 81% of world's population, study says

The fastest-growing U.S. cities are roasting in extreme heat

The issue isn't just about how hot it is now – but about how much hotter it's going to get.

Animated illustration of a melting, silhouetted palm tree against a sunny sky with heat distortion.

Heat waves

Climate change

Breaking climate science and policy coverage as extreme weather events reshape communities. Keep tabs on the race to a low carbon economy, which may be bumpy as governments, climate tech startups and major oil and gas companies race to find their niche amid the changing energy landscape.

Energy & Climate

💰 Cash on hand for select super PACs

Data: FEC; Chart: Tory Lysik/Axios Visuals

The political action committees backing former President Trump's presidential campaign are increasingly intertwined with his legal woes.

Why it matters: This has created an unprecedented "grey area" of campaign finance, Jordan Libowitz, a spokesperson for Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, told Axios.

Trump's leadership PAC, Save America, paid more than $36 million in legal fees for Trump's aides and his associates between Jan. 1 of 2021 and June 30 of this year, the Wall Street Journal reported from FEC data.

"Nearly 90% of Save America's everyday expenses this year accounted for legal-related costs," per the Journal. 

In the first half of 2023 alone, Trump-related PACs and the Trump-aligned super PAC spent more than $27 million in legal fees and related expenses, according to a New York Times analysis.

Driving the news: Save America, which entered 2023 with more than $18 million on hand, ended the first filing period with about $3.6 million in cash on hand, per the FEC.

Save America also requested a roughly $60 million refund of a donation that it had previously sent to MAGA Inc., the Trump-aligned super PAC, the New York Times reported.

MAGA Inc. has already sent back roughly $12.25 million to Save America, per the Times.

"Using a leadership committee to prop up a super PAC and then using a super PAC to then go back to that leadership committee is just so strange, it is not something you've seen before," Libowitz told Axios.

Zoom out: Trump has been criminally indicted three times in 2023, including over a hush money payment during his 2016 presidential campaign, his post-presidency handling of classified documents and his efforts to overturn 2020 election results.

He has strong grassroots energy, despite the numerous legal troubles. 

But his legal woes are expected to clash with his presidential campaign —  and the fees could "continue to mount and arguably explode," national security attorney Bradley Moss wrote in an email. 

A spokesperson for Trump's campaign did not respond to Axios' request for comment.

Between the lines: Super PACs, which don't have contribution limits, can't directly coordinate with campaigns, but they can spend on advertising and other areas to support a candidate.

Because it's much easier to raise large sums of money for super PACs, the original transaction between the two committees is "highly, highly, highly unusual," Paul Seamus Ryan, the deputy executive director at the Funders' Committee For Civic Participation, told Axios.

"So, you take dollars raised into a leadership PAC, which are hard to raise, they're from restricted sources and in limited amounts, and you give that money to a super PAC, that transaction alone is unheard of." 

What to watch: The Save America PAC has drawn scrutiny from special counsel Jack Smith in his investigation over Trump's alleged efforts to subvert 2020 election results. 

Special counsel Jack Smith's office grilled Trump ally Bernie Kerik about the money Save America PAC raised after the 2020 election based on false claims of voter fraud, Kerik's lawyer told Politico.

Go deeper: Trump dominates DeSantis in 2024 poll

Trump dominates DeSantis in 2024 poll with third place way behind

Trump's legal fights burn through his campaign war chest

MAGA Inc. sent back $12.25 million to the group paying Mr. Trump's legal bills.

2024 elections

Table showing cash on hand for seven select super PACs, from Jan. 1 to June 30, 2023. Never Back Down with Ron DeSantis has the most, at $96.8 million, followed by Donald Trump's Make America Great Again Inc.

Elections 2024

Hill Leaders

Axios Hill Leaders

Former Treasury Secretary Jack Lew is the leading candidate to be the new U.S. ambassador to Israel and could be nominated by President Biden in the coming weeks, according to three people familiar with the matter.

Why it matters: The successor to Tom Nides — who left as U.S. ambassador in July — will face a complicated political situation, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pushes through a judicial overhaul opposed by many Israelis and the Biden administration.

There is a sense of urgency surrounding President Biden's appointment: The White House is pushing for a diplomatic mega-deal with Saudi Arabia that could include a normalization agreement between the Saudis and Israel.

The next ambassador to Israel also will have a hand in managing the delicate relationship between Biden and Netanyahu. They've known each other for four decades but their relationship has cooled over Netanyahu's controversial effort to reduce the power Israel's judiciary.

Zoom in: Lew, a former Cabinet secretary and White House chief of staff, worked closely with Biden during the Obama administration. He's also worked with Netanyahu and the prime minister's close confidant Ron Dermer, Israel's minister for strategic affairs.

As deputy secretary of state, White House chief of staff and secretary of treasury, Lew had a front-row seat to several of the most challenging moments for the U.S.-Israeli relationship during the Obama presidency. 

Much of that tension revolved around Netanyahu's policy of expanding settlements in the occupied West Bank and the clash between Netanyahu and Obama over the United States' 2015 nuclear deal with Iran.

Lew, who practices Orthodox Judaism, has kept the Sabbath throughout his government career and has deep relationships with the Jewish community throughout the U.S.

State of play: Lew has told former White House colleagues that he's interested in the job.

Other candidates have been considered, but Lew is the only one being vetted for the job at the moment, according to a source with knowledge of the issue.

One of the other candidates is Stuart Eizenstat, a former ambassador to the European Union who is special adviser on Holocaust issues.

Other candidates are former Democratic Reps. Robert Wexler, Steve Israel and Ted Deutch, sources say.

A U.S. official said Biden hasn't made a final decision about the appointment. The White House declined to comment; a representative for Lew also declined to comment.

Between the lines: In his last Senate confirmation vote, for treasury secretary in early 2013, Lew was confirmed 71–26.

During the George W. Bush administration, Lew worked at Citigroup. He is now a partner at Lindsay Goldberg, a private equity firm, and is a visiting professor at Columbia University.

Scoop: Biden zeroes in on Lew for Israel ambassador

Former treasury secretary could be nominated by President Biden in the coming weeks, three sources say.

Then-Treasury Secretary Jack Lew speaks during a news conference in Athens, Greece, in 2016. Photo: Panayiotis Tzamaros/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Biden administration

Then-Treasury Secretary Jack Lew in 2016.

WeWork may have "substantial doubt" about its long-term survival, but one thing appears clear: The iconic co-working company's woes don't extend into the sector at large.

Driving the news: This week, WeWork shook investors by declaring it may have to file for bankruptcy — a ignominious fall from grace for a company once valued at $47 billion.  

The big picture: The pandemic-era boom in remote work is fundamentally intact, despite all manner of coaxing, cajoling and threatening by employers to get workers back into the office (looking at you, Zoom).   

The work from anywhere dynamic is a miasma on the traditional office sector, with fewer employees utilizing once-bustling commercial buildings. 

In contrast, the future is relatively bright for the flexible workspace sector as a whole — and for co-working players like IWG and Industrious, which both have strong balance sheets and see business on the upswing.    

"Enormous numbers of customers are moving out of the long-term lease space" into flexible office arrangements, Jamie Hodari, founder of Industrious, tells Axios in an interview.

Zoom out: WeWork appears to have been undone by the extravagant ambitions of its ousted co-founder, Adam Neumann, rather than the vagaries of the business cycle or an uncertain economy. 

Since Neumann's departure, WeWork has floundered as a public company (the stock has lost a staggering 99% of its value since its 2021 initial public offering), and struggled to dig itself out from under a mountain of obligations.

On the same day WeWork's announcement raised eyebrows, rival IWG (the largest company in co-working) posted a 48% surge in half-year profits.

In fact, the co-working market is big and growing, a trend that existed even before COVID. 

Market Reports World puts the size of the market above $14 billion, and forecasts a compound annual growth rate of over 17% until 2028.  

Regardless of what happens to WeWork, co-working spaces should continue to flourish in the post-pandemic era, especially as traditional offices fall out of favor, and fewer large-scale properties get built.

What they're saying: "This is definitely the strongest performance in the history of the company," Hodari says. (Disclosure: Axios' New York City office is housed in an Industrious co-working space.)

Unlike WeWork and its lament about canceled contacts, Hodari sees "more demand for [flex working spaces] right now than at any time in the last decade. Our revenue has tripled since 2019, and our current revenue growth rate is between 35% and 40%," he adds.

In another sign of how business is booming, The Financial Times reported that IWG expects to break even in 2023 after three straight years of losses, helped by aggressive de-leveraging and ongoing customer interest in hybrid work arrangements. 

WeWork may be struggling, but the co-working sector is on the upswing

The pandemic-era boom in remote work is fundamentally intact, despite employers trying to coax workers back to the office.

Axios

Sunday's top stories

Nikki Haley "not worried" about Trump's dominant polling lead

The fastest-growing U.S. cities are roasting in extreme heat

Trump's legal fights burn through his campaign war chest

Scoop: Biden zeroes in on Lew for Israel ambassador

WeWork may be struggling, but the co-working sector is on the upswing

AI will be at the center of the next financial crisis, SEC chair warns

2024 has become the scandal election

Charted: Action-adventure movies remain supreme