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National

One of the defining skills of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy's (R-Calif.) tenure is his ability to identify issues that divide moderate Democrats from their more progressive counterparts.

Why it matters: On issues ranging from crime, immigration, energy policy, COVID-19 mandates and, most recently, Israel, McCarthy has brought bills to the floor that win bipartisan support from Republicans and a sizable number of Democrats — while both marginalizing and raising the profile of polarizing progressives.

McCarthy rose to power in the GOP conference as a political operator, not a policy wonk. He's more attuned to how Republicans can keep the House majority than crafting consequential legislation in a divided Congress.

While many of these votes are symbolic, they're designed to re-emerge in campaign advertisements against vulnerable Democrats in 2024.

Driving the news: The most recent headache for House Democrats came this week after Congressional Progressive Caucus chair Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) called Israel "a racist state" during a progressive panel.

As Democratic leaders quickly criticized her comments (and Jayapal herself backtracked and clarified), Republicans offered a resolution condemning antisemitism and declaring Israel isn't a racist or apartheid state.

The resolution passed 412-9, with only a small faction of left-wing lawmakers, like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), voting against.

The big picture: This has been a familiar pattern on the House floor. The GOP's biggest victory came during the debate over Washington, D.C.'s crime bill, when Republicans worked to overturn the local City Council's less-punitive rewrite of the criminal code.

Most House Democrats initially opposed the GOP's efforts, with the most vulnerable members divided. But as public outcry over rising D.C. crime ensued, President Biden — who initially signaled he'd veto the GOP legislation — announced he would sign it.

That paved the way for most Senate Democrats to join with Republicans in their anti-crime efforts.

Meanwhile, the D.C. City Council, responding to the changed politics over crime, just passed a new tough-on-crime law that strengthens penalties for certain crimes and allows courts to detain juveniles for certain violent offenses.

Zoom in: Republicans also point to several other areas in which they've divided Democrats on issues that resonate with voters.

Legislation ending the COVID emergency won support from 11 politically vulnerable House Democrats. It then passed the Senate in a 68-23 bipartisan fashion and was signed into law by Biden in April.

A bill to prohibit the federal government from banning gas stoves won healthy bipartisan support, with 29 House Democrats crossing over to join all House Republicans.

A symbolic resolution denouncing the horrors of socialism won 109 Democratic supporters, while 86 House Democrats voted against.

What they're saying: "It is normally easy to stay united in the minority, but Speaker McCarthy continues to find ways to divide Democrats and divide House Democrats from the White House," said Dan Conston, president of the McCarthy-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund super PAC.

Reality check: Republicans have been taking tough political votes too, with McCarthy pressured to placate an empowered right-wing faction of Republicans.

Democrats point to the GOP amendment to the defense authorization bill that reverses a Pentagon policy paying for service members’ travel to access abortion care. Democrats unanimously opposed the measure, while two House Republicans from Biden districts defected.

Protecting abortion access was an effective argument House Democrats used against Republicans in last year's midterms.

Republicans also split over controversial amendments — backed by Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) — defunding U.S. efforts to help Ukraine's fight against Russia.

A minority faction of 70 House Republicans voted to prohibit all Ukraine security aid, while 89 voted in favor of cutting $300 million in Ukraine funding.

Internal GOP arguments over spending will likely ramp up pressure on McCarthy this fall, as right-wing members push for deep cuts in appropriations bills.

The bottom line: A central maxim of politics: The party that's united is the one that's winning.

On the whole, McCarthy's forces have been more united than House Democrats during the first six months of this Congress. It's a testament to his political acumen and ability to unite a fractious Republican Party.

That development has run against expectations, given the ideological divisions within the GOP and McCarthy's own struggles to secure the speakership.

McCarthy's winning streak

McCarthy rose to power as a political operator, not a policy wonk.

Photo: Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images

Kevin McCarthy

Politics & Policy

Media Trends

Axios Media Trends

In a series of tweets Sunday, Elon Musk said he plans to soon replace Twitter's decade-old logo of a small blue bird with a new, yet-to-be-decided logo featuring an "X."  

Why it matters: It’s the latest effort by the billionaire mogul to phase out Twitter’s branding, which hundreds of millions of people have become familiar with globally over the past decade-plus. 

In April, Musk changed Twitter's official name to "X," as a reflection of his desire to transform Twitter into a "super app," or one that houses multiple functions, like direct messaging, payments and video streaming. 

What they're saying: "Soon we shall bid adieu to the twitter brand and, gradually, all the birds," Musk said. 

The X, Musk said, will "embody the imperfections in us all that make us unique."

He subtly asked Twitter users to submit their own X designs, writing, "If a good enough X logo is posted tonight, we'll make go live worldwide tomorrow."

Musk later pinned a flickering, glowing X to his Twitter account. 

The big picture: Musk has spent months trying to retool Twitter to meet his own vision, but the changes have caused a slew of business problems compounded by growing competition. 

Erratic changes to Twitter's content moderation policies have sent advertisers fleeing, with Musk himself admitting last week that Twitter ad revenue is down 50%.

Changes to the number of posts users could temporarily view per day inspired Meta to debut its copycat app Threads early. 

Out thought bubble: Several apps have launched as Twitter replacements in the past few months, but few other than Threads have been able to lure significant user bases, in part due to the strength and global recognition of Twitter's brand. 

In stripping Twitter of the features users are most familiar with, like its name and logo, Musk is giving up a key competitive advantage as others race to displace Twitter. 

Elon Musk says he'll get rid of Twitter's famous bird logo in favor of an X

“Soon we shall bid adieu to the twitter brand and, gradually, all the birds,” Musk said.

Photo illustration of the Twitter logo perched on Elon Musk's hand.

Photo illustration: Megan Robinson/Axios. Photo: Britta Pedersen-Pool/Getty Images

Twitter

From the Valley to D.C., Big Tech players like Facebook, Google and Amazon are under more scrutiny than ever as new technology develops and privacy and antitrust concerns grow in lockstep with companies’ ambitions.

Technology

Top stories & latest news on the Federal Reserve, real-time data, plus the biggest shifts happening in the U.S. and global economy.

Economy

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

Hill Leaders

Axios Hill Leaders

Change in U.S. manufacturing jobs

Data: BLS; Note: May 2023 data is preliminary. Seasonally-adjusted estimates used; Map: Axios

A manufacturing boom has swept across the country in President Biden's 2½ years in office, with the South and Mountain West — including several red states — having especially strong growth, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

Why it matters: The U.S. economy has added some 800,000 manufacturing jobs nationwide, a figure Biden hopes will boost his claim to have delivered on his promise to be a president — and create jobs — for all Americans.

In his re-election campaign, Biden is seeking to take credit for those new jobs, especially the union ones.

Former President Trump also is making a play for the union vote and trying to convince auto workers that Biden's focus on electric vehicles will translate into fewer factory jobs.

Biden's challenge for 2024 is to draw a link between his three signature pieces of legislation — the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, the Inflation Reduction Act, and the Chips and Science Act — and the country’s resurgence in manufacturing, a sector in which the average hourly pay is $32.

He will be competing with governors — Republicans and Democrats — who also can take credit for the economic growth in their states, and frequently do.

By the numbers: Texas is the top state for new manufacturing jobs, with 86,000 new positions, from January 2021 to May 2023, according to BLS data.

Next comes California with 79,000 jobs; Florida with 37,000; Ohio with 31,000; and Georgia with 29,000.

Nevada had the greatest percentage increase at 15%, followed by Montana at 11% and Wyoming at 10%.

Driving the news: Biden traveled to a Philadelphia shipyard Thursday to try to persuade union workers that his spending on renewable energy will help the workers' bottom line — part of his broader push to convince a skeptical public that "Bidenomics" is working.

"When I think climate, I think jobs — union jobs," Biden said.

Trump countered that pitch in a video, saying, "If you want to have an auto industry, you need to defeat Joe Biden."

Between the lines: While touting his spending — and job growth —  in red states, Biden also likes to needle Republicans for voting against most of his proposals.

On a trip to South Carolina last week, he teased a visit to Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene's district to help break ground on a new solar facility.

The big picture: The U.S. economy has defied expectations and continues to add jobs. An elusive soft landing to the Fed's aggressive rate hiking — in which inflation continues to decline without unemployment rising — now seems possible.

Goldman Sachs economists have lowered the probability of a recession in the next 12 months to 20%, down from 30% last July, according to Axios Markets.

Still, polling indicates deep dissatisfaction with Biden's handling of the economy. Some of that negativity is likely spillover from partisan views about the president, whose favorability rating is in the low 40s in most major polls.

Anemic wage growth also could be to blame. But with inflation cooling and wage growth picking up, Biden's team hopes perceptions about the economy will improve.

Yes, but: There are signs the manufacturing sector is slowing down, which could undercut a key component of Bidenomics.

The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing gauge fell to 46% in June, its weakest reading since May 2020. Anything below 50 suggests contracting activity.

And in a June survey, manufacturers reported they were less optimistic about their company’s outlook than last quarter, with nearly 2/3 of respondents complaining about regulations.

Go deeper: Arizona and Georgia — states Biden flipped from former President Trump in 2020 — have added a higher percentage of manufacturing jobs than the national average of 6.4%.

Arizona has seen 16,000 new jobs for a 10% increase and Georgia's economy has added 40,000 jobs for a 7.5% increase.

In the three other states Biden won back for Democrats in 2020 — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — thousands of jobs have been added, but the percentage increase has not been as explosive as in the South and West.

Michigan has added 24,000 manufacturing jobs for a 4% increase. Pennsylvania has added 28,00 jobs for a 5% increase. Wisconsin has added 20,000 jobs for a 4% increase.

The bottom line: A healthy economy is the linchpin of Biden’s reelection strategy.

He needs the economy to keep adding them, especially in the states where the 2024 election is likely to be decided.

South, Mountain West see manufacturing boom under Biden

The U.S. economy has created some 800,000 manufacturing jobs during president's tenure.

2024 presidential election

Elections 2024

Joe Biden

Donald Trump

Former President Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, the two GOP presidential frontrunners, have both promised a crackdown on colleges should they occupy the White House — a stark reflection of the right's growing skepticism of higher education.

Between the lines: Some Republican complaints about colleges are related to broader concern about "wokeness" and free speech. But others hint at deeper questions about the value of college, and how to ensure a degree comes with an appropriate economic return. 

Driving the news: In a video posted on his website last week, Trump pledged to "fire the radical Left accreditors" and hire new ones "who will impose real standards on colleges."

Some of those standards would include "protecting free speech," "removing all Marxist diversity, equity, and inclusion bureaucrats," and "implementing college entrance and exit exams to prove that students are actually learning and getting their money's worth."

Last month, DeSantis sued the Biden administration over the college accreditation system, alleging it's unconstitutional, Inside Higher Ed reports. Students who receive federal aid must attend an accredited college or university.

The big picture: Republicans' confidence in higher education has plummeted over the last several years. 

A Gallup poll released earlier this month found that Americans' confidence in higher education has fallen to 36%, compared to 57% in 2015. The sharpest reported drop in confidence was among Republicans. 

Only 19% of Republicans say they have "a great deal" or "quite a lot" of confidence in higher education, compared to 56% who said the same eight years ago. Among Democrats, 59% expressed confidence, a 9-point decline from 2015. 

In 2017 Gallup polling probing the reasons behind low confidence, the most frequent answer given by Republicans was that colleges are too liberal or political.

Why it matters: Higher education is poised to become a major motivating factor in the 2024 presidential election.

Democrats were furious last month after the Supreme Court struck down affirmative action as well as President Biden's original student loan forgiveness plan.

What we're watching: Much of the noise being made by Republicans is political at heart. But right-leaning think tanks — and even some policymakers — are focused on making colleges more accountable for students' economic outcomes. 

Accreditation reforms could be where these two goals intersect.

Republicans "have historically thought of education as a training ground for employment," said Beth Akers, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. 

"I think they see this as a moment to put in place some accountability that they've long been in favor of but seemed to lack the political motivation to push on," she added.

The Republican war on colleges

Colleges are fast becoming a political football.

Axios

Sunday's top stories

McCarthy's winning streak

Elon Musk says he'll get rid of Twitter's famous bird logo in favor of an X

South, Mountain West see manufacturing boom under Biden

The Republican war on colleges

GOP's crumbling case against Biden on crime, immigration and inflation