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National

Polling, spending trends and conversations with leading Democratic and Republican strategists suggest it's now very possible House Republicans win back the majority on Nov. 8 with more than 20 House seats — once the upper range of most analysts' projections.

The big picture: Two weeks out from the midterms, evidence points to a re-emerging red wave that could sweep in GOP control of both chambers. In the Senate, Republican officials are now bullish they'll gain at least the one seat necessary to regain the majority.

Why it matters: The national political environment shapes the trajectory of all the battleground races, meaning a big enough wave could touch some of the bluest districts.

There's also an outside chance it sweeps in flawed Republican Senate nominees in Georgia and Arizona — despite their underwhelming campaigns against battle-tested Democratic incumbents.

How we got here: Inflation, inflation, inflation. Abortion may have peaked too soon as a motivating issue (the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June) to give Democrats a maximum boost in November. The late timing of gas prices' rebound, conversely, puts more wind in the GOP's sails.

Biden delivered a speech Tuesday pledging to codify Roe as his first act if Democrats elect more senators and keep the House. But there's worry in Democratic circles that abortion-centric messaging is keeping candidates from talking about the economy. 

A new Monmouth poll found 63% of respondents wish Biden would give more attention to the "issues that are important to your family" — including 36% of Democrats.

What we're watching: The latest public polling shows Republicans pulling ahead on the generic ballot. The Monmouth survey showed the GOP with a six-point advantage among registered voters (50%-44%), with more Republicans "extremely motivated" to vote (64%) than Democrats (59%). 

A Pennsylvania Senate poll conducted this month for the AARP by Biden pollster John Anzalone and Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio found Democrat John Fetterman's lead shrank to a statistical tie against Republican Mehmet Oz. Independents now back Oz by a seven-point margin. 

The Cook Political Report's House editor David Wasserman said this week many of the 15 Democrats in "lean Democratic" seats are "teetering on the edge." That's atop 30 Democratic-held seats already in "toss-up" or worse territory.

Wasserman name-checked House Democrats' campaign chief Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.) and progressive star Katie Porter (D-Calif.) as two prominent Dems — both in double-digit Biden districts — who are in danger.

What we're hearing: House Dems are triaging resources to defend candidates in solidly blue territory. Last week, the Democrats' House Majority PAC moved funds from an Oregon district Biden carried by nine points to salvage a suburban Portland district Biden won by 13 points. 

One national Democratic official told Axios they're "very pessimistic" about the prospects of Oregon Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner, who ousted moderate Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-Ore.) in the primary. In 2020, Schrader won re-election by six points.

Between the lines: "We’re still winning independent women but not by much," said one Democratic strategist involved in top congressional races. "Six weeks ago, we were winning them by double-digits. Now it's close to 50-50." 

Our thought bubble: It's telling that Biden isn't holding any big campaign rallies for Democrats while Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is a top Democratic closer in Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Sanders' rallies may help turn out younger progressives — but it could come at the cost of alienating some swing voters. 

Reality check: Far-right Senate candidates are still a drag on the GOP. The Mitch McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund announced Friday it was cutting $5.6 million intended to help Republican Don Bolduc in New Hampshire, earmarking it for other Senate battlegrounds, according to an SLF spokesman.

Red tsunami watch

It's now very possible House Republicans win back the majority with more than 20 House seats.

Animated illustration of a red wave dying the Captiol dome red.

Republicans

Politics & Policy

At least two people in tactical gear and masks and allegedly armed with weapons were watching over a drop box for mail-in ballots in Mesa, Arizona, on Friday, the Maricopa County Elections Department said Saturday.

Why it matters: At least two voters have filed complaints of voter intimidation to Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (D) in the past few days, including one claiming "camo clad people" of taking pictures while an early ballot was dropped off outside the Maricopa County election headquarters, according to KNXV-TV, an ABC-affiliated station in Phoenix.

The other complaint also alleged that a voter was filmed and accused of “being a mule” while submitting their ballot to a drop box in Maricopa County, KNXV-TV reports.

Arizona law prohibits people from entering the 75-foot limit of a voting location with a weapon, which would be considered an unlawful act of voter intimidation.

Early voting for the 2022 midterms officially started in the state on Oct. 12.

What they're saying: "On Friday, 2 armed individuals dressed in tactical gear were onsite at our Mesa ballot drop box. After [Maricopa County Sheriff's Office] arrived, the individuals left," the elections department said on Twitter.

"Uninformed vigilantes outside Maricopa County's drop boxes are not increasing election integrity. Instead they are leading to voter intimidation complaints. Although monitoring and transparency in our elections is critical, voter intimidation is unlawful," it added.

"For those who want to be involved in election integrity, become a poll worker or an official observer with your political party. Don't dress in body armor to intimidate voters as they are legally returning their ballots."

Maricopa County Board of Supervisors Chairman Bill Gates and Stephen Richer, the county's recorder, condemned the drop box watchers in a statement on Saturday.

"We are deeply concerned about the safety of individuals who are exercising their constitutional right to vote and who are lawfully taking their early ballot to a drop box," they said.

The big picture: Gates also said in a press conference last week that election workers were being harassed as they come to work.

"We aren’t going to stand by while our election workers who are your friends, family members & neighbors get harassed for doing their jobs. When you observe elections, please do it respectfully," he said in a tweet.

The Department of Justice and FBI identified Arizona as one of the top states for threats to election officials and poll workers, according to a letter to elections officials obtained by Axios.

Republican Kari Lake, who is facing off against Hobbs in the Arizona governor's race, has repeatedly made false claims that the 2020 election was rigged against former President Trump and has proposed new restrictive new laws to address the nonexistent fraud.

Go deeper: FBI identifies Arizona as one of top states for threats against election workers

Editor's note: This story has been corrected to reflect that Kari Lake and Katie Hobbs are candidates in the Arizona governor's race, not the Arizona secretary of state race. 

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Election officials: Armed "vigilantes" near ballot drop box in Arizona

Two voters have filed complaints of voter intimidation to the Arizona state secretary in the past few days.

A person dropping a ballot into a drop box outside of the Maricopa County Elections Department in Phoenix in August 2022.

Cars line up to drop off ballots outside the Maricopa County Elections Department in Phoenix in August. Photo: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Arizona

Axios Pro Policy

Doctors who've never been involved in politics before are mobilizing to influence the outcome of the midterms, joining battles over abortion and gun violence while confronting health misinformation and anti-science sentiment.

Why it matters: The same public distrust and politicization of science that's fueling physician burnout is drawing some doctors to grassroots political movements. They're being featured in political ads, joining candidates on the stump and, in some cases, even running for office. 

"After the Dobbs decision everybody had a just a 'We can't take this anymore after everything we had been through with the pandemic' moment," said Belinda Birnbaum, a rheumatologist in Pennsylvania. "Every conversation we had with every patient was about the pandemic and combating all of the misinformation out there and then, with the overturning of Roe, we knew doctors were going to be even more stressed than we had been, and we all had a 'that's it' moment." 

What's happening:  Mostly Democratic doctors like Birnbaum are factoring in the battleground Senate race in Pennsylvania, canvassing precincts and hosting media roundtables where they denounce Republican hopeful Mehmet Oz for promoting questionable health products. 

"I think many of us may have been involved individually as people who cared about elections and policies," said Benjamin Abella, an emergency room doctor in Philadelphia. "This election cycle galvanized many in health care to step up our game, get messages out that help our patients. This is very different, physicians speaking up out of their office, this is so different than anything we've ever seen before." 

In Texas, the grassroots Physician Women for Democratic Principles protested at the National Rifle Association convention in Houston after the Uvalde school massacre and organized fundraisers for Texas Democratic gubernatorial candidate, Beto O'Rourke. The group advocates for gun control and abortion access.

The Committee to Protect Health Care, a progressive advocacy group for physicians, has seen membership jump from 500 when it first started in 2019 to 10,000 today, many of which joined in the last two years. It encourages physicians to speak out in media and other forums against COVID or abortion misinformation. 

Be smart: Physician-led groups on the political right gained visibility during the pandemic, criticizing public health agencies and the drug industry and pushing back against lockdowns and other public health messaging, per STAT. 

A cadre of Republican physician-candidates launched bids for Congress after the enactment and troubled rollout of the Affordable Care Act, pitching their professional expertise while backing a more limited role for government in the health system.  

Driving the news: Democratic doctors are running for four potentially competitive House seats this election cycle, all messaging around the idea of how physicians are urgently needed in Congress to meet this political moment. 

"I think it's essential that doctors run," Kermit Jones, who emerged from a nonpartisan primary for California's 3rd congressional district seat, told Axios. The internist and Navy veteran said many politicians have no medical knowledge but are making critical decisions about abortion access. Cook Political Report rates the race as "Likely Republican," though Jones got attention for his strong performance in the primary. 

Another California doctor, pulmonologist Asif Mahmood, similarly emerged from a top-two primary to challenge incumbent Young Kim in the state's 40th congressional district. The race is being closely watched, though a July Republican-sponsored poll had Kim as the winner by 16%. 

Annie Andrews, a pediatrician and gun control advocate, is challenging incumbent Nancy Mace in South Carolina's 1st congressional district, which is considered to be one of the only competitive districts in the state. 

In what is looking to be a very close race, Yadira Caraveo, a pediatrician and state legislator, is running against Barbara Kirkmeyer for Colorado's new 8th congressional district. An internal poll conducted by Caraveo's campaign this summer has the race as leaning towards Kirkmeyer by two points. 

There are at least four Republican doctors running for Congress this cycle, including Oz. 

The Oz campaign connected Axios to doctors who support the Pennsylvania Republican Senate candidate. 

Jon Tucker, a retired orthopedic surgeon in Pittsburgh, said he respects Oz’s medical background but said his support is more about being able to advance Republican economic priorities in Congress.

Rich McCormick, a Republican emergency room doctor who won a primary runoff for Georgia's 6th congressional seat, said he's motivated by dissatisfaction with the Biden administration and its pandemic response. 

"Biden took all of the motivations out of the health care industry to make their own decisions," McCormick, who mounted an unsuccessful congressional bid in 2020, told Axios. "He censored physicians and said the government is the answer to all of our decisions in medicine ... I have a problem with that." 

Go deeper: The trend could continue in future campaign cycles, driven in part by political action groups that have sprung up to support more physicians in office. 

"This year we've endorsed a record number of physicians running for public office, everything from county commissioner through to the federal level," said Shaughnessy Naughton, president of 314 Action, a progressive PAC that started endorsing candidates in 2018. "One of the recurring themes I hear from them, is there’s only so much I can do from inside the exam room." 

314 Action and another PAC called Doctors in Politics launched a partnership in September to get more doctors civically engaged at the local level, by meeting with elected officials, giving public testimony and writing op-eds. The groups hope the engagement will result in more doctors wanting to run for office. 

A new PAC, Healthcare for Action, launched this summer, aims to get health care workers to run for Congress. It's endorsed the four Democratic doctor candidates and is raising money for each. 

Of note: In Congress, Republican doctors outnumber their Democratic counterparts. 

In the Senate, there are four Republican doctors: Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.), Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wy.). Paul, who's seeking a third term in November, could be in line to chair the Senate health committee if Republicans flip control of the chamber.   

In the House there are 10 Republican doctors and three Democrats. 

Our thought bubble: Physician-lawmakers often wind up on health committees and can play important roles educating their colleagues and influencing key pieces of legislation. 

But their effectiveness could be tested in a divided government, by polarizing debates over abortion access and the origins of COVID-19.

Editor's note: This story was originally published on Oct. 17, 2022

Doctors seek a bigger voice in races as midterms approach

More democratic doctors are getting involved in politics this election cycle.

Illustration of a statue of Justice wearing a doctor's coat and a stethoscope

Doctors

The U.S. health system faces critical questions about cost, access and equity. Technological advances and new discoveries about diseases like cancer and Alzheimer’s are transforming patient care and reshaping public health.

Health

Marginal tax brackets for 2023 tax year

The Internal Revenue Service announced Wednesday higher federal income tax brackets and standard deductions for next year, which will be a welcomed cost of living adjustment for many Americans.

Why it matters: The new brackets for 2023 mean paychecks for many Americans could see a boost, which will help consumers who are being hit hard by inflation and aren't seeing raises that keep pace with price increases.

Individual rates: Each of the tax brackets' income ranges jumped about 7% from last year's numbers. Here's a breakdown of last year's income and rates:

Married couples filing jointly brackets jumped about 7% as well. Here's a breakdown of last year's income and rates:

State of play: Inflation is hitting Americans hard right now. In September, consumer prices soared and were up 8.2% compared to a year before.

By adjusting the tax brackets — as the IRS does every year — it is attempting to stop "bracket creep," which happens when inflation pushes taxpayers into a higher income tax bracket without an increase in real income.

Worth noting: The jump could have been higher if not for a tax overhaul signed by former President Trump in 2017, the New York Times reports.

Republicans at the time tied the adjustments to the chained Consumer Price Index, which tends to rise at a slower pace than the standard CPI.

In September, chained CPI grew 0.2 percentage points slower than the standard CPI compared to 2021.

Thought bubble via Axios' Emily Peck: These adjustments happen every year but are significant now due to inflation.

Congress passed these adjustments the last time inflation was high decades ago. It is hard to imagine lawmakers joining together to enact this kind of policy now.

What they're saying: "Inflation adjustments to tax brackets mean that it will be harder for taxpayers to hit those higher brackets, and therefore will have more income taxed at lower rates next year," said Tim Steffen, director of tax planning with wealth management company Baird, in a statement.

Go deeper: IRS releases inflation-adjustments for next year's taxes

Editor's note: This story was first published on Oct. 19, 2022.

The new income tax brackets for 2023

Here's a breakdown of income and rates for next year.

Axios

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