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National

John Kerry has made one special ask of world leaders since he became President Biden's climate envoy in January: help me consign coal to history. As the UN climate summit convenes in Glasgow, Scotland, all signs suggest they won't deliver.

Driving the news: The COP26 summit is a proving ground of sorts for Kerry's style of personal diplomacy, which helped him broker the 2015 Paris climate accord. The challenge is having it pay off in a world rife with multilateralism, and with the U.S. leadership role in question.

Kerry has billed Glasgow as the world's "last, best chance" for averting potentially catastrophic effects from global warming.

At the same time, he's been working to lower expectations. As recently as last Thursday, Kerry acknowledged there will be a gap after Glasgow between where the world needs to be on emissions and where it is.

He's also started to look past COP26, emphasizing that this needs to be a "decisive decade" and "decade of action."

The U.S. and other countries secured some commitments on coal use at the G20 summit on Sunday, but this fell short of what Kerry had been fighting for. 

Efforts to curb coal usage in his own country have been hampered by the resistance of Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), who used to be governor of a coal state.

Between the lines: Any shortfall isn't for lack of effort.

Kerry has mimicked his time as the most-traveled secretary of State in history, maintaining a frenetic schedule.

He's visited at least 15 countries since January, some more than once, with a single-minded focus that other U.S. foreign policy officials can't afford.

Unlike his time heading the State Department, he largely flies commercial, toting his own bag into the passenger cabin.

In every meeting with his foreign counterparts, Kerry has sought five commitments, State Department officials tell Axios:

3. Increase financing to help developing nations adapt to climate change

5. Strengthen emissions targets after COP26

Between the lines: Kerry arrives in Scotland with Biden's domestic climate agenda hanging in the balance — weakening U.S. credibility. 

If Democrats fail to pass a robust climate bill, Kerry told the AP in September, "it would be like President Trump pulling out of the Paris agreement, again." 

America’s domestic political situation, with the likelihood of a Republican takeover of at least one chamber of Congress in 2022, has other countries greeting his big asks with caution.

Meanwhile, the Biden administration has described climate change as an "existential threat," and China as "the biggest geopolitical test of the 21st century."

That dual framework has created massive headaches for Kerry in his push to secure climate commitments from the world's largest carbon emitter.

The big picture: As a 77-year-old former Cabinet officer, senator and presidential candidate, Kerry's familiar with the often frustrating nature of securing multinational agreements.

He helped negotiate the Iran nuclear deal and the Paris Agreement under Barack Obama, only to see Donald Trump pull the U.S. out of both.

He's also had to endure brickbats from his own boss and former Senate colleague.

After Kerry made the comment that Biden arriving in Glasgow without Congress having passed climate legislation would be akin to Trump pulling out of the Paris accord, the president walked him back: "I think Senator Kerry has a little hyperbole there," Biden told reporters.

Kerry's climate diplomacy at stake

He'll play a leading role, and will share the blame if the summit comes up short.

Photo illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photo: Christopher Goodney/Bloomberg via Getty Images

COP26

2020 conventions

Climate change

2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

Politics & Policy

Breaking climate science and policy coverage as extreme weather events reshape communities. Keep tabs on the race to a low carbon economy, which may be bumpy as governments, climate tech startups and major oil and gas companies race to find their niche amid the changing energy landscape.

Energy & Climate

Tampa Bay

Axios Tampa Bay

President Biden convened with leaders of the world's largest economies Sunday to address supply chain disruptions and strategize how to fortify the entire "ecosystem over the long term."

The big picture: The global supply chain has struggled against the backdrop of rising demand, labor shortages and manufacturing delays, as countries have begun to emerge from the economic damage they incurred during the coronavirus pandemic. 

Details: The president discussed how each county could identify and resolve "bottlenecks," adding that greater coordination among countries is needed to strengthen the supply chain.

Biden also announced increased funding to help the international community in the struggle against supply chain disruptions, specifically directed toward alleviating some of the bottlenecks in Mexico and Central America.

What they're saying: "Supply chain is something that most of our citizens never think twice about," Biden said at the summit. "During this pandemic, we've seen delays and backlogs of goods or automobiles or electronics."

The backdrop: The Biden administration has introduced several initiatives domestically to address ongoing disruptions to the supply chain, ranging from issuing executive orders to expanding port operating hours. 

Biden talks supply chain issues with world leaders on last day of G20

The president discussed how each county could identify and resolve "bottlenecks."

US President Joe Biden addresses the press with European Commission

Photo: Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images 

Joe Biden

Top stories & latest news on the Federal Reserve, real-time data, plus the biggest shifts happening in the U.S. and global economy.

Economy

Conflicts, policies and powers are intersecting and shaping the world. Breaking news and analysis of national security, foreign policy and global crises.

World

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

Axios AM

President Biden, nine months into his presidency, is getting a clear verdict in public polls: America sees him similarly to the guy he beat — Donald Trump.

Why it matters: Independents are turning on Biden. Shocking numbers of people see the nation headed in the wrong direction. And people see incompetence and chaos.

By the numbers: An NBC News poll out this morning finds 54% of Americans disapprove of Biden's performance — on the brink of midterms, and as he's trying to close the deal on a historic expansion of government. 

"Biden’s favorable/unfavorable rating in the poll (40 percent positive, 48 percent negative) is almost identical to Trump’s in the same survey (38 percent positive, 50 percent negative)," NBC reports. 

71% in the NBC poll — including 70% of independents and even 48% of Democrats — believe the nation is headed in the wrong direction.

An especially worrisome stat for the White House: Just 18% strongly approve of Biden, while nearly half (46%) strongly disapproval. 

The big picture: Gallup says Biden's 42% approval rating is the lowest for any president in October of their first year going back to Dwight Eisenhower in 1953 — except Trump, who was at 37%.

Zoom in: FiveThirtyEight's poll tracker has Biden at 51% disapprove.

Real Clear Politics has him at 52% disapproval. 

Between the lines: Biden faces signs the U.S. is turning against big government — just as he's trying to make government much bigger: 

Gallup reported this month that 52% of Americans said government is "trying to do too many things" — a flip from last year, when a majority said government should be doing more to solve problems.

National Journal's Josh Kraushaar points out this reflects historical American patterns: "Aside from a surge of pro-government sentiment during the pandemic, majorities of Americans going back decades have favored more restrained government."

The bottom line: Polls are consistently showing Americans in a downbeat mood about their reality — and their president. Like with Trump, it's only diehard party loyalists who seem into the man in charge.

Biden's Trump-like poll numbers

The numbers come as Biden tries to close the deal on a historic expansion of government.

Polls

Policymaking

President Biden raised concern over Turkey's purchase of a Russian missile system in a meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Sunday, per the White House, saying their respective countries need to find an "effective way" to manage disagreements.

Why it matters: Relations between the two countries have been tested over issues like a threat to expel foreign envoys, including a U.S. ambassador, that Erdoğan has since walked back, and Turkey purchasing Russian-made weaponry. 

The backdrop: In 2019, Turkey received "the first group of equipment" from a Russian S-400 air defense system despite warnings from the U.S., which said the system could compromise the alliance's security. 

Erdoğan has said he may purchase a second Russian missile system, adding that "nobody can get involved with this."

Erdoğan last week walked back a threat to expel U.S. Ambassador David Satterfield and nine other foreign envoys after they called for the release of a jailed philanthropist.

What they're saying: "I think obviously the S400 is an issue that continues to be a concern for Congress and continues to be a factor in all of these broader issues as part of our defense relationship," a senior administration official told reporters.

"I mean, the President and the administration have long been clear that the S400s are a problem."

Worth noting: The White House said Biden and Erdogan also discussed human rights violations and regional issues in Afghanistan and Syria, among other topics.

Biden raises missile purchase with Turkey's Erdoğan

Relations between the two countries have been tested over several issues.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and President Joe Biden on Oct. 31.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and President Joe Biden on Oct. 31. Photo: Aytac Unal/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

The second COVID-era Halloween is upon us, but the festivities look set to be much closer to business as usual across much of America after 2020's disruption.

Why it matters: While the holiday is coming just before kids are set to be vaccinated, trick-or-treaters look set to be out in (almost) full force.

State of play: Our Axios Local reporters in 14 cities across America asked their readers if Halloween would look any different for them or their families this year ... and got mostly crickets.

The vast majority of those who did respond said that they were looking forward to getting back to normal with their kids after last year's weirdness.

Worth noting: CDC Director Rochelle Walensky has encouraged families to celebrate the holiday, albeit in smaller outdoor settings.

And Des Moines didn't see any holiday-specific press conferences by city or county leaders. Last year saw the mayor and local health officials urge families to avoid festivities if at all possible.

By the numbers: Some Axios Local cities surveyed their readership to get a better eye on Halloween trends.

In Charlotte, of the 277 readers who responded, 65% said their Halloween was back to normal. Only 9% said they'd be utilizing candy chutes or some social-distancing mechanism, while 26% said they'd be doing a little of both.

In Northwest Arkansas, only 9% of the 80 readers who responded said they'd avoid outdoor events like trick-or-treating.

One thing that'll still be a little different: Halloween parties. Readers in both areas expressed some reticence about big indoor gatherings.

What they're saying: Florida Politics editor Peter Schorsch, known for massive Halloween displays at his St. Petersburg house, said he thinks people are ready to let loose in Tampa Bay.

"You are going to see a little bit of the euphoric hot vax summer we didn't have come out over the holidays. We needed that release. There are a lot more early decorations this year. There will be a little bit more release this Halloween."

The bottom line: Even as things start to feel like normal on All Hallows' Eve again, the pandemic is still here to disrupt some time-honored traditions — as exemplified by one pair of readers in the Twin Cities.

Last year, Rose and Gary Allen kept their lights off and got no trick-or-treaters at their St. Paul home. This time they’re prepared for "lots of kids." 

But one element of their typical celebration remains on pause: "We will not be serving their parents a shot of apple schnapps as [has] been our tradition for the past 20 years," the couple shared via email. "We hope to revive that 'treat' next year if we can safely be unmasked."

Axios' Jason Clayworth, Alex Golden, Michael Graff, Selene San Felice and Torey Van Oot contributed to this report.

America's 2nd COVID Halloween is looking a lot more normal

The holiday is coming just before kids are set to be vaccinated.

Illustration of a jack o'lantern that turns into a covid particle.

Axios Local

Coronavirus

The U.S. health system faces critical questions about cost, access and equity. Technological advances and new discoveries about diseases like cancer and Alzheimer’s are transforming patient care and reshaping public health.

Health

Mental health care was already inequitable and in short supply in the U.S. This Axios AM Deep Dive, led by health care reporter Caitlin Owens, looks at how the pandemic made it worse.

Axios AM Deep Dive: Our mental health crisis

Illustration of an engraved style eye that is crying