Biden's Trump-like poll numbers

By the numbers: An NBC News poll out this morning finds 54% of Americans disapprove of Biden's performance — on the brink of midterms, and as he's trying to close the deal on a historic expansion of government.

• "Biden’s favorable/unfavorable rating in the poll (40 percent positive, 48 percent negative) is almost identical to Trump’s in the same survey (38 percent positive, 50 percent negative)," NBC reports.

71% in the NBC poll — including 70% of independents and even 48% of Democrats — believe the nation is headed in the wrong direction.

• An especially worrisome stat for the White House: Just 18% strongly approve of Biden, while nearly half (46%) strongly disapproval.

The big picture: Gallup says Biden's 42% approval rating is the lowest for any president in October of their first year going back to Dwight Eisenhower in 1953 — except Trump, who was at 37%.

Zoom in: FiveThirtyEight's poll tracker has Biden at 51% disapprove.

• Real Clear Politics has him at 52% disapproval.

Between the lines: Biden faces signs the U.S. is turning against big government — just as he's trying to make government much bigger:

• Gallup reported this month that 52% of Americans said government is "trying to do too many things" — a flip from last year, when a majority said government should be doing more to solve problems.
• National Journal's Josh Kraushaar points out this reflects historical American patterns: "Aside from a surge of pro-government sentiment during the pandemic, majorities of Americans going back decades have favored more restrained government."

The bottom line: Polls are consistently showing Americans in a downbeat mood about their reality — and their president. Like with Trump, it's only diehard party loyalists who seem into the man in charge.

• Go deeper: NBC's 21-page poll.