National

Two weekends ago, President Trump met with a group of his closest aides in the conference room of his Bedminster golf club to discuss a subject that has been weighing heavily on his mind: the three scheduled debates with Joe Biden.

Behind the scenes: In the room with Trump were his son-in-law Jared Kushner, campaign manager Bill Stepien, senior adviser Jason Miller, and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who role-played Hillary Clinton in Trump's 2016 debate prep sessions.

The team agreed to meet at least every 10 days or so between now and the first debate, according to two sources familiar with the results of the meeting.

They resolved to keep the group very small. They may bring in different people based on subject matter expertise, but the group would remain five to six people to limit the potential for leaks.

The group did not specifically discuss whether Christie will play Biden in debate rehearsals. But Trump has made private comments indicating Christie is likely to role-play Biden as he did Clinton. Trump has told associates that Christie "was better than Hillary" and "harder to debate than Hillary" in 2016.

Why it matters: Among President Trump's closest aides, these debates have taken on outsized importance to close the polling gap and get Trump within striking distance by Election Day. The Trump campaign views the debates as the crucial inflection points left before Nov. 3.

"I don't think he [Trump] sees the debates as the last inflection points, but potentially the most important," said a source familiar with the results of the planning meeting. "I think he always thinks he can create an inflection point.

"But he has verbalized how important these are going to be," the source added. "He's said, 'We gotta win. The press will never give me the credit for it, but the people will.'"

Team Trump doubts Biden will submit himself to any tough interviews before Election Day, so they view the debates as the only opportunity to batter him before a national audience, according to three sources involved in the internal discussions.

Key Trump advisers, including Miller and Christie, have cautioned Trump that Biden is actually a decent, experienced and relatively disciplined debater. 

Miller has also been publicly trying to reset expectations about Biden's performance in the debates. "Joe Biden is actually a very good debater," Miller told the Washington Post. "He doesn't have as many gaffes as he does in his everyday interviews."

Between the lines: The problem for the Trump campaign is they have no leverage over the Commission on Presidential Debates — the independent body that will manage this fall's presidential debates.

Team Trump has made clear they're itching to debate Biden, so Trump can't credibly threaten to withdraw from the debates if he doesn't get one of his preferred moderators from the list Rudy Giuliani sent to the commission.

What we're hearing: A source familiar with the debate planning said the commission will announce the debate moderators the first week of September. In keeping with its history of independence, dating back to 1988, the commission will not let either campaign pressure it into choosing a particular moderator.

The commission will select the moderators entirely itself. It may give the campaigns a courtesy heads-up before publicly announcing, the source said, but under no circumstances will the commission let the campaigns influence its decisions.

Since 1988, the commission has always sought to choose moderators that would be broadly seen as fair and would not provoke a violent reaction from either campaign. Never, in 30 years, has a campaign vetoed a selection, though they've complained afterward about "unfair" moderators.

The big picture: The commission is not willing to bow to the Trump campaign's request that it change the debate schedule to add a September debate before early voting begins in some states. 

"If the campaigns agree they want another debate, we will take a look at that and see if that will work," the source said. But the commission won't change the debate schedule or add another debate unless the Biden campaign also pushes for it. And so far, the Biden campaign has indicated it won't do that.

"It would be nice if people understood how complicated this is," the source added.

This year, the commission needs to manage the biggest television event of the year during the worst pandemic in a century. The debates will have tiny on-campus audiences — "two-digit sized," the source said. Attendees will be socially distanced and wear masks.

The Cleveland Clinic will supervise all of the debates, and everyone will be tested for the coronavirus before entering the room.

Scoop: Inside Trump's debate prep

The Trump campaign views the debates as the crucial inflection points left before Nov. 3.

Trump and Christie. Photo: Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images

Politics

Presidential debates

2020 election

Joe Biden

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

Joe Biden leads President Trump 48% to 42% in Wisconsin and 49% to 43% in Pennsylvania, according to the latest CBS/YouGov Battleground Tracker poll.

Why it matters: Trump's surprise wins in the two states, where many voters broke his way after deciding the week before the election, helped propel him to an Electoral College victory over Hillary Clinton. Trump won Wisconsin with 47% of the vote and Pennsylvania with 48% in 2016, according to the New York Times. 

By the numbers: In both states, 47% of voters view Biden as better equipped to respond to the coronavirus pandemic. 37% of voters in Pennsylvania say Trump would better handle the pandemic, while only 32% of voters in Wisconsin said the same.

The big picture: 85 days from Election Day, the warning signs are flashing bright red for Trump's re-election prospects as voters look poised to reject his handling of the COVID-19 crisis. Anything can happen — but right now, every measurable trend is going against Trump.

What to watch: Nearly half of the voters who said they would pick Biden over Trump responded that Biden's choice for vice president could push them one way or another.

Methodology: The surveys were conducted for CBS News by YouGov. The margin of error in both Wisconsin and Pennsylvania is +/- 3.7. 1,009 registered voters were surveyed in Wisconsin and 1,225 were surveyed in Pennsylvania.

Go deeper: The blue wave threatening to crush Trump's re-election hopes

Poll shows Biden leading Trump in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania

In both states, 47% of voters view Biden as better equipped to respond to coronavirus pandemic.

2020 election polls

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Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D- Conn.) called on the Trump administration to declassify intelligence detailing Russian efforts to influence the 2020 elections, telling MSNBC on Sunday that the classified briefing lawmakers received about the Kremlin's activities last week was "absolutely chilling."

The big picture: National Counterintelligence and Security Center Director William Evanina said in a statement Friday that the Russian government is "using a range of measures" to "denigrate" Joe Biden ahead of the election. China and Iran would prefer that Trump is defeated, according to Evanina.

Driving the news: Blumenthal suggested in a Washington Post op-ed Saturday that Sen. Ron Johnson's (R-Wis.) investigation into Joe Biden and his son's activities in Ukraine may be laundering Russian disinformation, citing a report that Johnson had been provided with tapes by a Ukrainian lawmaker whose father was a KGB agent.

Johnson has denied allegations that he is amplifying Russian disinformation, saying in a statement to the Post: “I will not be deterred by these despicable tactics designed to discredit a legitimate investigation. It only increases my curiosity: What do they know that we might uncover?"

Top Democrats in the House and Senate have called for the FBI to provide Congress with a "defensive briefing" regarding what appears to be a "concerted foreign interference campaign" targeting Congress.

What he's saying: "The information that I heard in this classified setting, where we're sworn to secrecy, is absolutely chilling, startling and shocking," Blumenthal said.

"The American people need and deserve to know it. It comes from intelligence sources that we are now barred from revealing. But the next step really is for the Trump administration to declassify it to make it available. "

The intelligence suggests "that the past Soviet, or Russian techniques, are looking like child's play compared to what they're doing now globally," he added.

Go deeper: Pelosi says election threats from China and Russia are "not equivalent"

Blumenthal calls classified briefing on Russian interference "absolutely chilling"

"The American people need and deserve to know it."

2020 elections

World

Russia

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

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Former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb said on CBS News' "Face the Nation" that the coronavirus death toll in the U.S. will be "definitely" somewhere between 200,000 and 300,000 by the end of 2020.

Why it matters: "Whether we're closer to 200,000 or closer to 300,000 depends on what we do now and how it evolves," Gottlieb warned on Sunday as the U.S. surpassed five million confirmed coronavirus cases.

The big picture: The U.S. has the highest coronavirus death toll in the world with over 160,000 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University. Brazil has the second-most deaths with just over 100,000.

What he's saying: "We've now had two waves of this epidemic — the New York wave and the wave through the Sun Belt —which is receding, although Texas is showing an uptick in the last week and that needs to be followed closely," Gottlieb said.

"The concern now is that this has become so pervasive across the country that it could start to infect more rural communities that have largely been untouched to date and probably are a little more complacent," he continued.

"That's going to be far more difficult to control if it's more widespread. And we're seeing indications of that right now, the way it's spreading in the Midwest and the West."

What to watch: Older Americans tend to live in more rural communities and are the most vulnerable to the virus.

Ex-FDA head: U.S. will "definitely" see 200,000 to 300,000 virus deaths in 2020

"Whether we are closer to 200,000 or closer to 300,000 depends on what we do now and how it evolves."

Health Care

Coronavirus

The U.S. faces a range of health care flashpoints — unaffordable drugs, opioids, vaping — as we debate whether to adopt universal care. For now, the Affordable Care Act is the law of the land, but Republicans want to issue it a final death blow.

Health

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Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin insisted on "Fox News Sunday" that President Trump's executive orders on coronavirus aid were cleared by the Justice Department's Office of Legal Counsel, and said that Democrats are going to "have a lot of explaining to do" if they choose to challenge them in court.

Why it matters: Democrats and even some Republicans have criticized Trump's decision to circumvent Congress to extend unemployment benefits as executive overreach, given that the Constitution gives Congress power to appropriate spending.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi called the orders  "absurdly unconstitutional" on CNN, but would not say whether Democrats would sue to stop them.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) rebuked the orders on ABC's "This Week" as weak and ineffective, but said he would "leave that up to the attorneys" when asked whether they were legal.

Defer payroll taxes for Americans earning less than $100,000 a year.

Implement a moratorium on evictions and give financial assistance to renters.

Add $400 per week in extra unemployment benefits through the end of 2020, requiring states to cover 25% of the additional benefits.

Postpone student loan interest and payments through the end of 2020.

What they're saying: "We've cleared with the Office of Legal Counsel all these actions, before they went to the president," Mnuchin said when pressed on Sen. Ben Sasse's (R-Neb.) claim that the orders are "unconstitutional slop."

"The president knew unemployment insurance was ending. He said let's continue at $400. By the way, the 25% from the states — they can either take that out of the money we've already given, or the president can waive that. We've been told by the states they can get this up and running immediately."

"And I would say if the Democrats want to challenge us in court and hold up unemployment benefits to those hardworking Americans who are out of a job because of COVID, they're going to have a lot of explaining to do."

Go deeper: Pelosi says states "don't have the money" for Trump's unemployment order

Mnuchin says Trump executive orders were cleared by Justice Department

The treasury secretary insisted that Trump's executive orders are legal.

Steven Mnuchin

Axios AM

Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.) has dialed up his spicy slams of President Trump, including this swipe at yesterday's signing ceremony: "The pen-and-phone theory of executive lawmaking is unconstitutional slop."

Why it matters: Trump increasingly looks — to business and to fellow Republicans — like a loser in November. So they're more likely to create distance to save their own skins. Sasse also won his May primary, further freeing him.

Earlier, Sasse had this to say as the White House and Democratic leaders negotiated a new coronavirus rescue package:

The swamp should stop pretending there’s some thoughtful negotiation happening here. ... The White House is trying to solve bad polling by agreeing to indefensibly bad debt. This proposal is not targeted to fix precise problems — it's about Democrats and Trumpers competing to outspend each other.

After the Lafayette Square fracas, Sasse said: "I'm against clearing out a peaceful protest for a photo op that treats the Word of God as a political prop."

On intelligence about Russian bounties:  "Number one, who knew what when? Did the commander in chief know and, if not, how the hell not? What is going on in our process?"

"And, number two, what are we gonna do to impose proportional cost in response? In a situation like this, that would mean Taliban and GRU [Russian military intelligence agency] body bags."

On Trump's plan to withdraw troops from Germany: " Chairman Xi and Vladimir Putin are reckless — and this withdrawal will only embolden them."

On a report Trump might withdraw troops from South Korea: "{This kind of strategic incompetence is Jimmy Carter-level weak."

Flashback ... Sasse in his maiden Senate speech in 2015: "Everything cannot be simply Republicans versus Democrats. ... I promise you that I plan to speak up when the next president of my party exceeds his or her proper powers."

Ben Sasse emerges as GOP Trump critic ahead of November

Trump increasingly looks — to business and to fellow Republicans — like a loser in November.

Sen. Ben Sasse walks to the Senate from the subway to vote in June.  Photo:  Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call via Getty Images

Ben Sasse

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House Speaker Nancy Pelosi claimed on "Fox News Sunday" that states don't have the funds to comply with the executive order President Trump signed on Saturday, which requires them to cover 25% of an additional $400 in weekly unemployment benefits.

Why it matters: Many state and local governments have had their budgets devastated by the economic impacts of the coronavirus, which have caused expenses to soar and revenues to plunge. 

White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said Sunday he wasn't sure whether states could afford the costs, telling CNN's "State of the Union": "We'll probably find that out today or tomorrow."

One of the major sticking points in coronavirus stimulus negotiations between Democrats and Republicans was relief for state governments. Trump has called the request a "bailout" for years of mismanaged budgets in Democratic-led states.

What she's saying: "States don't have the money to do that. They have expenses from the coronavirus, they have lost revenue from shelter-in-place and the fact that people are not being able to go out and spend money and inject demand into the economy as they would normally."

The other side: Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on "Fox News Sunday" that states can either use money already appropriated by the federal government to provide the 25% of unemployment benefits, or they can request a waiver from Trump. "We've been told by the states they can get this up and running immediately," he added.

Pelosi: "States don't have the money" for Trump's unemployment order

The order requires states to cover 25% of additional unemployment benefits.

Economic stimulus

Policymaking

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

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White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said on CNN's "State of the Union" Sunday that he regrets suggesting this week that unemployment benefits can only be extended by Congress.

Why it matters: President Trump's decision to bypass Congress to sign four executive actions, including one that provides $400 per week in extra unemployment benefits, has prompted outcry from Democrats and even some Republicans who believe he is overstepping his constitutional authority. 

Trump, who signed the orders after negotiations with Democrats over coronavirus relief broke down, has limited power to unilaterally appropriate federal spending and risks a legal challenge.

Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.) was among the Republicans who condemned Trump's move, calling it "unconstitutional slop."

What he's saying: Asked to clarify an interview he gave earlier in the week to Fox Business, Kudlow said: "I'm not the lawyer and I probably spoke out of turn there."

"I was thinking at that point we might be able to get a deal with congressional Democrats. As you know, we were unable to get that deal. We tried a couple times, we offered compromises, we couldn't get it. 

"So the president decided to take action on his own. Of course I think he was right to do so, and when the lawyers gave me a green light then, sure, no problem."

The big picture: Kudlow acknowledged that it's not clear whether states have the money to provide 25% of the additional unemployment benefits, as ordered by Trump. "We'll probably find that out today or tomorrow as we make our canvas," he told CNN.

Kudlow says he regrets claiming Trump couldn't use executive order for unemployment

"I'm not the lawyer and I probably spoke out of turn there."

Larry Kudlow

Markets

Axios Markets

Will you step back into an elevator any time soon? 

Why it matters: Tens of billions of dollars — and the future of cities around the country — rest on the answer to that question. So long as workers remain unwilling to take elevators, hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of office real estate will continue to go largely unused.

Where it stands: Office building landlords and tenants are busy working out how many people to allow in an elevator at a time — with the dual goals of conveying people to their cubicles and keeping them safe at work.

New York City's Department of Buildings has a COVID-19 task force, which has slashed in half the maximum capacity of all the elevators it oversees. 

In practice, however, previous maximum capacity was generally so high that the new rule is unlikely to act as a real constraint.

The intrigue: The science of COVID-19 transmission in elevators is far from settled, but the consensus is that the risk is low. 

"Most elevators are very well ventilated," Richard Corsi, the dean of the engineering school at Portland State University, tells Axios. 

"The short duration of any exposure" helps to bring the risk down, Professor Ben Cowling of the University of Hong Kong's School of Public Health told me.

Risk can be further reduced by implementing new rules:

Limiting capacity to no more than three or four people per car.

Ensuring that everybody wears a mask and doesn't speak.

Standing with one's face to the walls of the elevator rather than to the door.

Americans are still hesitant to get back into elevators, however. 

A Twitter poll I ran this week this week (with 4,054 votes) showed 63% of respondents saying that they were not OK with using an elevator to get to work, even with masking and social-distancing policies in place.

That number rises to 71% for people who don't live in elevator buildings. (On the other hand, people who do live in elevator buildings are generally fine with also taking an elevator to work, with 61% saying they would do so.)

If many employees are unwilling to get into elevators, that helps to solve much of the social-distancing problem. 

Other tactics to reduce elevator crowding include staggered arrival times and catered lunches (which reduce the lunchtime rush down and up).

Office landlords, however, are terrified that if most employees are unwilling to return to work, their tenants will downsize or abandon their leases entirely. 

Commercial real estate loans have already seen a spike in default rates. 

Ancillary businesses — like all those lunch spots near offices — are also suffering. 

The bottom line: It's not clear what will make Americans comfortable with elevators. But if they don't get there, the near-term future of our cities looks grim. 

Elevator anxiety will stifle reopenings

So long as workers are unwilling to take elevators, office real estate will go unused.

Illustration of an elevator with caution tape. The door is open and the light in the elevator is blinking.

Business

Economy

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro posted a photo of himself to Facebook congratulating his soccer team, Palmeiras, for winning the state title Saturday, moments after the health ministry confirmed the national COVID-19 death toll had surpassed 100,000.

Why it matters: Brazil is only the second country to confirm more than 100,000 deaths from the coronavirus. On Sunday morning, it became the second country to surpass 3 million cases, per Johns Hopkins. Only the U.S. has reported more. Bolsonaro has yet to address the milestones. He has previously tested positive for COVID-19 three times, but he's downplayed the impact of the virus, which has crippled Brazil's economy.

Editor's note: This article has been updated with the latest coronavirus case numbers and more context.

Brazil coronavirus death toll tops 100,000 and case numbers surpass 3 million

He's yet to comment on the grim milestone.

Brazil

Cities

Some Republicans joined Democrats in criticizing President Trump Saturday night for taking executive action on coronavirus aid, with Democratic leaders demanding the GOP return to negotiations after stimulus package talks broke down a day earlier.

Why it matters: Trump could face legal challenges on his ability to act without congressional approval, where the constitutional power lies on federal spending. Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.) was the most vocal Republican critic, saying in a statement: "The pen-and-phone theory of executive lawmaking is unconstitutional slop."

What else they're saying: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) issued a joint statement on Saturday evening accusing Trump of failing to comprehend "the seriousness or the urgency of the health and economic crises facing working families."

Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, accused Trump of putting Social Security at risk in a "reckless war" with what he called "a series of half-baked measures." Biden said in an emailed statement that Trump's payroll tax plan — which the president said would help "greatly,"  with payroll taxes for Americans earning less than $100,000 a year — had "no protections or guarantees," unlike those in the Obama administration.

Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.) tweeted, "The president is doing all he can to help workers, students and renters, but Congress is the one who should be acting. Democrats should stop blocking common sense proposals to help students going back to school & college & parents going back to work who need child care."

Senate Judiciary Chairman Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), a Trump ally, tweeted, "I appreciate the President taking this decisive action but would much prefer a congressional agreement. I believe President Trump would prefer the same."

Rep. Justin Amash (L-Mich.), a vocal Trump critic who left the Republican Party in 2019, tweeted, "Our Constitution doesn’t authorize the president to act as king whenever Congress doesn’t legislate."

What he's saying: Trump conceded that Democrats might legally challenge his actions, but he said: "Through these four actions, my administration will provide immediate and vital relief to Americans struggling in this difficult time."

In a Saturday night tweet, Trump attacked Biden's plan to raise $3.2 trillion over a decade from tax increases in order to pay for his climate and health care proposals, saying: "Sleepy Joe Biden just agreed with the Radical Left Democrats to raise Taxes by Three Trillion Dollars. Everyone will pay - Will kill your Stocks, 401k’s, and the ECONOMY. BIG CRASH!"

Of note: The order and memoranda signed by Trump would add $400 per week in extra unemployment benefits through the end of 2020, requiring states to cover 25% of the additional benefits, Axios' Jacob Knutson notes.

Previous enhanced unemployment benefits related to COVID-19 added $600 a week to standard state unemployment.

 Editor's note: This article has been updated with new details throughout.

Republicans and Democrats react to Trump's coronavirus aid action

"Trump chose to stay on his golf course to announce unworkable, weak & narrow policy announcements."

President Donald Trump speaks to workers at a Whirlpool manufacturing facility on August 06,

President Trump speaks to workers at a  manufacturing facility  in Clyde, Ohio, on Thursday. Photo: Scott Olson/Getty Images

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