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National

This week's NATO meeting in London will be "a celebratory leaders' meeting," according to a White House talking point ahead of President Trump's trip. But European officials aren't betting on it, and Trump has been privately complaining about France's President Emmanuel Macron. 

Best-case scenario, for Europeans: Trump sticks to the script — taking credit for a stronger NATO and celebrating the fact that the Europeans are spending more on their defense. 

"Allies believe they have worked hard to construct a positive narrative that Trump can buy into," a senior official from a NATO member state told me.

The official summarized that narrative as "increased defense spending by European allies of $130b since 2016 ... plus decrease in U.S. share of NATO budget plus increased high readiness forces."

Trump, with the 2020 election coming up, "will want to take credit for that," the official said. But "allies still very much fear the unpredictability of the president."

Behind the scenes: Three senior administration officials told me Trump has been deeply annoyed by Macron, who recently told The Economist that "what we are currently experiencing is the brain death of NATO" and that the United States under Trump's leadership appears to be "turning its back on us."

"He's been down on Macron for a long while," said one official.

The leaders' "bromance" appears to be a distant memory. Trump has described Macron as a "wise guy" in conversations with his advisers. (He has privately used the same phrase to describe Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.)

Another official said Macron's comments may have the ironic effect of causing Trump to speak more positively about the alliance to contradict Macron's negativity.

The Europeans, meanwhile, have shared their worries widely ahead of the meeting. "All I'm hearing is great anxiety about what Trump might do or say," said Ivo Daalder, who served as U.S. ambassador to NATO from 2009 to 2013.

"The last two NATO meetings didn't go well," Daalder told me. "In 2017, [Trump] refused to reaffirm Article 5, and in 2018, he threatened to walk away from NATO if Europeans didn't spend more on defense."

Article 5 guarantees that NATO allies will defend one another against an armed attack. NATO means nothing without this promise. After an outcry, Trump explicitly endorsed NATO's mutual defense clause.

Between the lines: NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has preemptively placated Trump. He released new data showing that allies are spending many billions more on their defense, which Trump has demanded.

And in a move tailored for Trump — who has been infuriated by Germany's reluctance to spend more on defense — Stoltenberg announced that NATO allies will pick up some slack so that the U.S. no longer covers a larger share of the alliance's $2.5 billion central budget than Germany: 16% each starting in 2021.

The bottom line: Though a senior administration official told reporters on a Friday call that the NATO alliance "remains instrumental," European leaders say they've seen this movie before. They've learned the hard way to ignore cheery lines from the White House staff — and that only Trump speaks for Trump.

We'll be watching to see how the NATO allies handle two crucial internal debates — how to manage NATO's problem child (Turkey) and how to handle a global power that poses a growing threat to the alliance (China).

Between the lines: "Turkey appears to have decided that its future is better assured by close alignment with Putin's Russia than with a US-led NATO," said Daalder. "The S-400 decision" — Turkey's decision to defy America and its NATO allies by purchasing the Russian anti-aircraft system — and its "deal with Russia" to take control of the border zone in Syria "are but the latest blows to NATO unity." 

There's also increasing division in NATO over China, over whether to allow Huawei to operate 5G networks and over a growing alignment between Beijing and central and eastern European countries, Daalder said. 

It's "dividing east and west Europe economically, politically and, increasingly, strategically as China's power and influence in Europe is on the rise."

Ahead of NATO summit, Erdogan condemns Macron for "brain death" comments

Macron says NATO faces "brain death" as U.S. steps back under Trump

Trump praises Turkey's Erdoğan as "great ally" despite Syria tensions

NATO allies spooked by Trump despite White House soothing

"All I'm hearing is great anxiety about what Trump might do or say," the former ambassador to NATO said.

An illustration of Trump and other world leaders.

Photo Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photos: Jean Catuffe/Getty Images, Chesnot/Getty Images, Emmanuele Contini/NurPhoto via Getty Image, Jasper Juinen/Getty Images, and Stephane Cardinale - Corbis/Corbis via Getty Images.

Politics

NATO

World

Conflicts, policies and powers are intersecting and shaping the world. Breaking news and analysis of national security, foreign policy and global crises.

President Trump's two most important trade deals — one with China and another with Canada and Mexico — have been hobbled by forces largely outside of the administration's control.

Between the lines ... 1. On USMCA: The passage of USMCA depends on the ability of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, organized labor and the Mexican government to come to a compromise.

The Mexicans have long said there's no way they're going to let American officials inspect their factories. American labor leaders, meanwhile, have said the only thing they'll accept is a unilateral process to ensure Mexico is meeting its labor standards. 

The question is whether there's a side letter that can satisfy both AFL-CIO president Richard Trumka and Mexico City. So far it hasn't been the case but the Mexicans claim they're close.

Pelosi has to balance the desires of moderate members, who want the deal to pass, against the concerns of more progressive members close to organized labor. And she's doing it all against the backdrop of impeachment, which has overwhelmed the 2019 congressional calendar.

2. On the China deal: A week ago, U.S. sources close to the China talks indicated they were on the precipice of a "Phase One" deal. But that optimism now seems premature, if not misplaced.

Congress sent legislation to Trump's desk that angered Beijing, interrupted the trade talks, and telegraphed support for democracy and human rights in Hong Kong. The new Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act requires the president to impose sanctions on people who violate human rights in Hong Kong.

Trump begrudgingly signed off, as the legislation passed with veto-proof majorities.

Beijing responded with predictable fury and threats, even as Trump took pains to downplay the bill and to flatter President Xi in his signing statement.

Behind the scenes: A source close to Trump's negotiating team told me the China deal was now "stalled because of Hong Kong legislation" and that time is needed "to allow Xi's domestic politics to calm." The "Phase One" deal with China would probably happen "year-end at the earliest," and Trump is expected to hold off on his planned December tariffs to keep the deal alive.

Two other sources close to the China talks said several substantive obstacles remain, including how much of his tariffs Trump will roll back, what mechanisms will enforce the agreement, and how the Chinese will guarantee enormous purchases of U.S. agriculture products that Trump has already said they will make.

There are also logistical complications. The Trump team has bandied around possible locations to sign the deal — ideas have included Iowa and Camp David — but has struggled to find a mutually acceptable venue.

The bottom line: Most of my sources close to both trade negotiations — both Democrats and Republicans — say they expect both deals to ultimately come through. But there are plenty of reasons to remain wary about these predictions.

How to think about Trump's two big trade deals

USMCA and the "Phase One" China trade deal have been hobbled by forces largely outside of Trump's control.

Illustration of a hand picking up a shipping container with USMCA label

Trump trade war

Business

Top stories & latest news on the Federal Reserve, real-time data, plus the biggest shifts happening in the U.S. and global economy.

Economy

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

Maltese Prime Minister Joseph Muscat announced Sunday that he would resign next month in the wake of a crisis triggered by an investigation into the 2017 death of Daphne Caruana Galizia, a prominent anti-corruption journalist, AP reports.

The backdrop: Prosecutors on Saturday charged well-connected businessman Yorgen Fenech on suspicion that he paid contract killers to murder Caruana Galizia, a fierce critic of Muscat and his associates, according to the New York Times. Fenech had offered to give information linking Muscat's chief of staff and others to the murder plot in exchange for immunity, but the government turned down the offer.

The big picture: The fallout from the 2017 murder has shone a light on corruption in the European Union's smallest country, denounced by Caruana Galizia's son as a "mafia state," per the Times. 

Go deeper: The free press is getting squeezed, even in democracies

Malta's prime minister to resign in wake of murdered journalist scandal

The crisis has shone a light on corruption in the European Union's smallest country.

Photo: Matthew Mirabelli/AFP via Getty Images

Corruption

Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) argued in a testy exchange on NBC's "Meet the Press" that he believes "both Russia and Ukraine meddled in the 2016 election," claiming without evidence that former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko "actively worked" for Hillary Clinton.

Meet The Press-10 46 54 Am - 10 50 40 Am-2019-12-01

KENNEDY: You should read the articles, Chuck, because they are well-documented. And I believe that a Ukrainian district court in December 2018 slapped down several Ukrainian officials for meddling in our elections as a violation of the Ukrainian law. Now, I did not report those facts, and reputable journalists reported those facts. Does that mean that the Ukrainian leaders were more aggressive than Russia? No. Russia was very aggressive and they're much more sophisticated, but the fact that Russia was so aggressive does not exclude the fact that President Poroshenko actively worked for Secretary Clinton.

TODD: My goodness. Wait a minute. Senator Kennedy, you now have the president of Ukraine saying that he actively worked for the Democratic nominee for president. I mean come on. You realize that the only other person selling this argument outside of the United States is Vladimir Putin. ... You have just accused the former president of Ukraine — You have done exactly what the Russian operation is trying to get American politicians to do. Are you at all concerned that you have been duped?

The big picture: Last Sunday, Kennedy told Fox News' Chris Wallace he believed a debunked conspiracy theory that Ukraine tried to hack the Democratic National Committee's computers during the 2016 election. The next day, he told CNN's Chris Cuomo he misheard the question and was wrong, stating, "I've seen no indication that Ukraine tried to do it."

The White House's former top Russia expert Fiona Hill testified that the theory that Ukraine interfered in the election is "a fictional narrative that is being perpetrated and propagated by the Russian security services themselves."

The New York Times has also reported that intelligence officials briefed senators in recent weeks about Russia's years-long campaign to frame Ukraine, but Kennedy told Todd that he did not attend the briefing.

Reality check: Many of the claims of interference that Kennedy cites relate to Ukrainian officials making disparaging remarks about Trump during the campaign, most notably after the then-candidate made comments about the U.S. possibly recognizing Crimea as Russian territory.

These scattershot criticisms differ greatly from the top-down, large-scale interference operation that the U.S. intelligence community has concluded was ordered directly by Vladimir Putin.

Kennedy also claims that a Ukrainian court ruled that Ukrainian officials had meddled in the U.S. elections by releasing damaging information about former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort. However, an appeals court later canceled that ruling, according to the Kyiv Post.

Vindman calls Ukrainian interference conspiracy theory a "Russian narrative"

Trump repeats Ukraine conspiracy theory on 53-minute "Fox & Friends" call

Trump denies sending Giuliani to Ukraine to dig up dirt on political opponents

Sen. John Kennedy doubles down on claims of Ukrainian interference

Kennedy claimed, without evidence, that former President Poroshenko "actively worked" for Hillary Clinton.

Ukraine

President Trump's interference in Chief Petty Officer Edward Gallagher's war crimes case has military officials worried that trust between the president and armed forces has been upended, according to the New York Times.

What they're saying: Chris Shumake, a former sniper who served in Gallagher’s platoon, said in an interview with the Times that Gallagher's case has "blown up bigger than any of us could have ever expected, and turned into a national clown show that put a bad light on the teams. [Trump's] trying to show he has the troops’ backs, but he’s saying he doesn’t trust any of the troops or their leaders to make the right decisions.”

Peter Feaver, a specialist on civilian-military relations at Duke University and a former aide to President George W. Bush., said Trump is "interfering with the chain of command, which is trying to police its own ranks."

"They’re trying to clean up their act and in the middle of it the president parachutes in — and not from information from his own commanders but from news talking heads who are clearly gaming the system."

Context: Gallagher was accused of fatally stabbing a wounded Islamic State fighter and posing with the corpse for a picture while in Iraq in 2017. A military jury acquitted him on the murder charge but convicted him for the photograph. 

A Navy SEAL review board had been scheduled to convene on Dec. 2 to decide whether Gallagher should be allowed to retain his status as a SEAL, but Trump intervened in the case and ordered Defense Secretary Mark Esper to stop the review process.

The backdrop: The Times reports that before deploying to Iraq in 2017, Gallagher sent a text to the SEAL master chief saying he was willing to go anywhere: “We don’t care about living conditions. We just want to kill as many people as possible," he said.

The Times reports that Gallagher had a former SEAL make him a hunting knife and a hatchet and vowed in a text to "dig that knife or hatchet on someone’s skull!” Several SEALs reportedly told investigators that they saw him taking narcotics.

In 2010, Gallagher was accused of deliberately shooting an Afghan girl to hit the man who was carrying her. In 2014, he was accused of trying to run over a Navy police officer. Investigators in both cases found no wrongdoing.

By the end of his deployment, however, the Times reports that Gallagher was largely isolated from his platoon and had earned a private nickname among other SEALs: "El diablo."

Ousted Navy Secretary Richard Spencer hits back at Trump on CBS

Esper says Trump ordered him to allow Eddie Gallagher to retire as a SEAL

Military officials say Trump's SEAL interventions embolden war criminals

"They’re trying to clean up their act and in the middle of it the president parachutes in."

Trump speaks to U.S. troops during a Thanksgiving day visit at Bagram Airfield, Afghanistan, Nov. 28. Photo: Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images

Navy Seals

Rep. Doug Collins (R-Ga.), ranking member of the House Judiciary Committee, said on "Fox News Sunday" that the first witness Republicans will attempt to call in the upcoming impeachment hearing is House Intelligence Chairman Adam Schiff (D-Calif.).

Fox News Sunday With Chris Wallace-9 04 55 Am - 9 06 44 Am-2019-12-01

CHRIS WALLACE: "Will Republicans on the committee call for subpoena witnesses to testify, and if so, who are you going to ask to testify?"

COLLINS: "First and foremost, the person who needs to testify is Adam Schiff. Adam Schiff is the author of this report. Adam Schiff has been the author of many things, a lot of them found to be false over the past couple of years. But he's going to be the author of this report. He's compared himself in the past to a special counsel. ... My first and foremost witness is Adam Schiff."

WALLACE: "So you want to bring him in before the committee, not just to present a report, but to take questions from Democrats and be cross-examined, if you will, by the Republicans?"

COLLINS: "He needs to be. He's put himself in that position, and if he chooses not to, then I really question his veracity and what he's putting into his report. I question the motives of why he's doing it. It's easy to hide behind a report. It's easy to hide behind a gavel."

Why it matters: As Axios' Alayna Treene has reported, Schiff is the closest thing to a Democratic Ken Starr that exists in the Trump impeachment inquiry, having taken on a dual-hat role as both a key committee chairman and chief investigator. This has opened him up to incessant attacks from Republicans, who believe he has been leading an unfair process and had inappropriate contacts with the whistleblower.

The big picture: The House Intelligence Committee on Monday will begin reviewing a draft report of its investigation into allegations that President Trump pressured Ukraine to investigate his Democratic rivals. The committee will then hold a business meeting on Tuesday to consider and adopt the report before sending it to the House Judiciary Committee.

The Judiciary Committee announced last week that it would hold a hearing with constitutional scholars on Dec. 4 to discuss the "historical and constitutional basis of impeachment." Ultimately, the committee will be responsible for recommending articles of impeachment that the full House will vote on.

House Judiciary Chairman Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.) has invited Trump to send legal counsel to attend the hearings, but the president has not indicated whether he plans to do so.

Republicans on the Sunday cable news shows criticized Nadler for inviting Trump to send counsel without announcing who the witnesses will be.

Worth noting: Trump himself will be in London for a NATO meeting when the Judiciary Committee begins its hearings.

House Judiciary Committee announces first impeachment hearing

House invites Trump to participate in impeachment hearings

Top Judiciary Republican demands Schiff testify in impeachment hearing

The House Judiciary Committee will hold its first impeachment hearing on Dec. 4.

Axios

Sunday's top stories

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Top Judiciary Republican demands Schiff testify in impeachment hearing

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