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National

As the Chinese government accelerates its crackdown on Hong Kong's pro-democracy protesters, the Trump administration has sharpened its view of the world's most important bilateral relationship.

What's happening: Senior officials tell me they are increasingly concerned about Beijing's treatment of activists in Hong Kong and, increasingly, fear overreach that could also target Taiwan. This comes as any chance of an armistice in the trade war seems to be shrinking away. 

Why it matters: Based on numerous conversations with Trump administration officials over the last few weeks, it is clear that many of the president's top advisers view China first and foremost as a national security threat rather than as an economic partner.  

This is a new normal. And it's poised to affect huge parts of American life, from the cost of many consumer goods — likely to go up under a punishing new round of tariffs — to the nature of this country's relationship with the government of Taiwan.

Trump himself still views China primarily through an economic prism. But the angrier he gets with Beijing, the more receptive he is to his advisers' hawkish stances toward China that go well beyond trade.

The big open question remains whether Trump's anger with China — especially its flooding of the U.S. with deadly fentanyl and its backtracking on promises to make huge agricultural purchases — will ever grow to such a point that he wants to move in a tougher direction on national security and human rights. If he gets to that point, his advisers will have plenty of hawkish policy ideas waiting for his green light.

Behind the scenes: A New York Times op-ed by Hong Kong activists Joshua Wong and Alex Chow — titled "The People of Hong Kong Will Not Be Cowed by China" — has been circulating inside the administration. And U.S. officials have been reviewing reports of Chinese authorities snatching protesters off the streets.

Senior administration officials have also contemplated selling another tranche of advanced weaponry to Taiwan, beyond the recent F-16 fighter jet sale, according to 3 sources briefed on the sensitive internal conversations. A senior administration official cautioned that these talks may go nowhere and that Trump would probably hesitate to expand his fight with China to include Taiwan.  

Trump administration officials have also discussed terminating the State Department's self-imposed restrictions on contact with Taiwanese officials. A policy under discussion would let Taiwanese officials attend meetings at State Department headquarters and send direct letters to State. 

A State Department official responded to this reporting: "The Department of State regularly reviews our activities with Taiwan, within the scope of our unofficial relationship. As of this time, no decisions to change current practices have been made."

If the State Department made such a change, it would stick in China's craw and lessen the chances of a trade deal. But it wouldn't be the first departure from the status quo under this administration. Trump enraged Beijing and broke decades of protocol a few weeks after he was elected by taking a phone call from Taiwan's leader. 

The big picture: As the Hong Kong situation deteriorates, the Trump administration is entering the tensest stage of its economic standoff with China. The situation is further complicated by China's militarization of the South China Sea and dominant role in propping up North Korea's rogue regime.

Trump's latest round of China tariffs kick in today, imposing a new 15% tariff on billions worth of consumer products. 

Between the lines: Trump's advisers say he was genuinely infuriated that, in his view, the Chinese recently reneged on 2 key promises: to buy huge amounts of agricultural goods from American farmers and to stop the flow of deadly fentanyl into the U.S. So any progress toward getting the talks back on track would likely have to start with the Chinese making a new offer on agriculture purchases and cracking down on drug trafficking.

About a week and a half ago, Chinese and U.S. officials at USTR and Treasury had a phone call about agricultural purchases, per a U.S. administration official. Another source briefed on these lower level discussions said the Chinese are frustrated that Trump is not giving them enough credit for the agricultural goods they bought earlier this year.

Sources briefed on the talks say the the two sides still aren't wrestling with the thorniest trade issues that caused the impasse in the first place. The most optimistic scenario for those favoring a deal is that the two sides can generate enough goodwill in the next couple of weeks that a Chinese delegation, led by trade negotiator Liu He, could visit Washington at the end of September. Senior administration officials have discussed such a trip, but nothing is locked in.

The bottom line: During the 2.5 years of his presidency, Trump has fundamentally changed how the world's top two economies relate to each other. And his advisers think there's no going back.

Top officials: China a national security threat

Hong Kong, Taiwan and the trade war are fundamentally changing the U.S.-China relationship.

Trump holding up a confusing map of China

Politics

U.S. China trade war

World

Top stories & latest news on the Federal Reserve, real-time data, plus the biggest shifts happening in the U.S. and global economy.

Economy

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

A couple of Washington's top literary agents say President Trump's former personal secretary, Madeleine Westerhout, could make millions if she writes a tell-all of her time working for the president.

Driving the news: Keith Urbahn and Matt Latimer — who run the literary agency Javelin and secured 7-figure book deals for former FBI director James Comey and former White House official Cliff Sims — say most publishers in the country right now want a meeting with Westerhout.

But a source close to Westerhout says she has "no intention" of writing a book about her time working for the president. The source added that Westerhout had "very positive" experiences with President Trump and would have nothing negative to say.

Context: Westerhout resigned last week after Trump learned she'd shared intimate details about him and his family during off-the-record drinks with reporters. 

Trump described Westerhout as a "very good person" on Saturday, but in the same tweet sent a warning shot, saying that she has a "fully enforceable confidentiality agreement" and that he is "currently suing various people for violating their confidentiality agreements."

Urbahn says the lawyers his agency works with are confident that Trump's nondisclosure agreements are unenforceable for government service. The former White House employees' First Amendment rights override these agreements, he says.

The big picture: Latimer and Urbahn say that if Westerhout is willing to endure the legal, media and presidential onslaught that would come as a result of turning on her former boss, then she could get the biggest literary payday so far in the Trump era. 

"This is someone who had total access, saw everything, which Trump obviously knows," says Latimer. "If she was willing to say 'here's everything I saw and I'm not trying to protect anybody,' then she could have a huge advance."

The bottom line: Urbahn says if Westerhout's anecdotes of her time working for the president at intimate quarters are "sufficiently shocking" she could get an advance of $5 million or more. "It doesn't get much higher. I mean that would be a major score," he said. "But everything has to align."

"And I still think there would be hesitation on the part of both editors and the reading public to buy a book that purely dished," Urbahn adds. "There has to be an argument or a higher calling for why you're doing this. Otherwise it would come across as transactional. ... It's a tricky path. It has to be revelations plus here's why the American people need to know this."

The other side: Former colleagues of Westerhout say they don't expect she'll write a tell-all book. And Latimer and Urbahn say their experience with Trump White House officials makes them think she won't do it, either.

Latimer and Urbahn say they've spoken to numerous current and former Trump administration officials about writing books. And "most people, so far, end up taking the safer course, which is, 'Eh, I don't want to be tweeted about every day, with people attacking me and I have to move out of my house'," Latimer says.

"What the administration tends to do is offer people cushy jobs somewhere to keep people quiet, so she's got to weigh all those things," Latimer adds.

Sean Spicer, who served as President Trump's press secretary, left the White House in 2017 and met with publishers who were eager to pay him big bucks for a tell-all. Spicer ultimately took a more modest advance than he could have gotten because he wrote a positive book about the president in which he did not reveal any confidential information from his time in the White House. 

"Anyone leaving this administration that's interested in writing a book has a choice to make," Spicer says. "Number one: Go for the big bucks, tell all, but then worry about whether anyone in the future will continue to trust you. Two is to share your story but maintain a level of loyalty, integrity and trustworthiness."

So who would be these literary agents' No. 1 pick among former Trump administration officials? Latimer and Urbahn agree that if former Defense Secretary James Mattis was willing to offer his candid assessment of Trump as commander in chief — rather than write a leadership book that avoids discussing Trump — then he'd be by far their top choice. 

But Urbahn says it's getting "too late" even for Mattis to get a staggering advance as any such book would need to be released before the 2020 election. "The window is small and closing," he says.

Top literary agents say Trump's ex-personal secretary could make millions

Madeleine Westerhout resigned last week after Trump learned she'd shared intimate details about him and his family.

Illustration of a book with dollar signs as the title.

Inside the White House

Axios AM

Finish Line

Axios Finish Line

President Trump's campaign and key allies plan to make allegations of bias by social media platforms a core part of their 2020 strategy, officials tell Axios. 

The big picture: Look for ads, speeches and sustained attacks on Facebook and Twitter in particular, the sources say. The irony: The social platforms are created and staffed largely by liberals — but often used most effectively in politics by conservatives, the data shows. 

Why it matters: Trump successfully turned the vast majority of his supporters against traditional media, and he hopes to do the same against the social media companies.

Republicans' internal data shows it stirs up the base like few other topics. 

"In the same way we've seen trust in legacy media organizations deteriorate over the past year, there are similarities with social media companies," a top Republican operative involved in the effort told me. 

Between the lines: The charges of overt bias by social media platforms are way overblown, several studies have found. But, if the exaggerated claims stick, it could increase the chances of regulatory action by Republicans.

"People feel they’re being manipulated, whether it's by what they're being shown in their feeds or actions the companies have taken against conservatives," the operative said. 

"It's easy for people to understand how these giant corporations could influence them and direct them toward a certain favored candidate."

How tech execs see it: They know the escalation is coming, so they are cranking up outreach to leading conservatives and trying to push hard on data showing that conservative voices often outperform liberal ones.

Reality check, from Axios chief tech correspondent Ina Fried: What is real is that most of the platforms have policies against bias that some conservative figures have run afoul of. 

Managing editor Scott Rosenberg notes that Twitter is Trump's megaphone, while Facebook is often his favorite place to run ads. 

What's next: By the time 2020 is over, trust in all sources of information will be low, and perhaps unrecoverable.

A nation without shared truth will be hard-to-impossible to govern. 

Trump allies plot new war on social media

Republicans' internal data shows it stirs up the base like few other topics.

Social media

Technology

Media

Elon Musk

Social Media

2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

Politics & Policy

The Trump administration's trade war with China entered a new phase on Sunday morning as new 15% tariffs on about $110 billion of Chinese imports took effect, Bloomberg reports.

Why it matters: Per the New York Times, the move changes the rules of trade in ways that have no recent historic precedent. "This is the first time U.S. consumers will see the costs quite directly, right as we head into the busiest shopping time of the year," Western Washington University economics professor Edward Alden told the Washington Post. China has introduced retaliatory taxes, the first phase of which came into effect Sunday.

The world’s 2 largest economies are now even further apart by the trade war, despite President Trump and Chinese officials announcing last month plans to resume negotiations. 

The state of play: American consumers can now expect higher prices on consumer items like "clothing, toys, home goods, and electronics," per the Retail Industry Leaders Association. 

 J.P. Morgan estimates the tariffs will cost the average American household $1,000 a year.

China's retaliatory tariffs range from 5% to 10% on a portion of $75 billion U.S. goods, with the second phase of taxes due to take effect Dec. 15.

What he's saying: Trump told reporters on Friday that "we’re having conversations with China" and that meetings between the 2 sides had been scheduled for September, but the tariffs were still "on." 

He denied via Twitter on Sunday morning that the tariffs would hurt American consumers.

The bottom line: Per Axios' Jonathan Swan, the biggest tool Trump has to pump the economy and the markets is a trade deal with China. But if anything, senior administration officials have turned harder against China in recent weeks thanks to national security concerns in Hong Kong and Taiwan — and these retaliatory tariffs aren't going to help.

Editor's note: This article has been updated with President Trump's latest comments. 

The goods Trump's latest China tariffs would impact

Tariffs threaten to reshape tech industry

The escalation of the trade war may be too much for the Fed

Trump trade war: 15% tariffs on Chinese imports take effect

Expect higher prices on items clothing, home goods and other items.

Illustration of a Chinese flag and a US flag chasing rotating.

Protesters blocked roads with burning barricades near Hong Kong International Airport  and damaged a train station, AP reports. It followed a night of running battles between police and activists in Hong Kong's 13th weekend of pro-democracy protests.

Why it matters: Hong Kong is embroiled in the worst political crisis to hit the former British colony since it was returned to Chinese control in 1997. Protesters are rallying despite authorities issuing a ban on Hong Kongers gathering near central government offices. The airport has been off-limits to protesters since mid-August, when activists clashed with police while occupying the main terminal, the New York Times notes.

The latest: Trains to the airport and 10 other stations were suspended and traffic was heavy after protesters called on members of the public to overwhelm road and rail links to one of the world’s busiest airports, per Reuters.

An MTR spokesperson urged passengers to stay away from the railroad stations, according to the South China Morning Post.  

Hong Kong police said in a statement that they would soon conduct a "dispersal operation" to remove protesters from the airport, urging them to stop what they called "illegal acts" and leave immediately, according to Channel News Asia.

Protesters disrupted Hong Kong International Airport by packing key areas before thousands headed toward the nearby town of Tung Chung on Sunday, Reuters reports. 

The protesters left the airport early Sunday evening local time, per Reuters.

The big picture: In these latest protests, organizers are hoping a repeat of their occupation of the main terminal two weeks ago, when almost 1,000 flights were canceled. Rallies are also planned for Tin Shui Wai and outside the British consulate in Admiralty, per the South China Morning Post. 

Saturday night saw the worst clashes between police and protesters since demonstrations began in the city in June. Protesters' frustrations built up this week as Chinese central government continued to make threats and arrest prominent activists, including Joshua Wong.

Wong and fellow activist leader Alex Chow had a message for authorities in a New York Times op-ed published Saturday that they penned: "You can arrest us. But more protesters will keep coming out."

The government's failed attempt to prevent protesters from flooding the streets of Hong Kong Saturday resulted in tens of thousands of people gathering, and an intense clash with the police as fire and water spewed across the city, per the New York Times. Protesters are demanding the suspended extradition bill be pulled, along with fresh democratic elections and an investigation into police brutality, AP notes.

Protesters organized in defiance of the government on Saturday, but also to remember the 5th anniversary of the "Umbrella Movement" — which came about in 2014 when the central Chinese government in Beijing tried to reform Hong Kong's voting process, per the Times.

Masked protestors torched the streets as government helicopters fluttered above the city and riot police detonated pepper spray, tear gas and water cannons. By sundown, the throngs had built a makeshift barrier near a burning road, expelling black smoke overhead.

American flags waved across the city as some protesters called for the U.S. to intervene, reports Bloomberg. China has accused President Trump of "stoking the protests." 

Between the lines: Hong Kong officials are not looking to ease up any time soon. The volume of arrests has increased, and the government refuses to compromise on any of the protestors demands. In a statement, Hong Kong's government indicated its resistance to political reform negotiations despite being pressed for a "one person, one vote" system to protect against Beijing's intrusion, per the NYT.

In photos: Hong Kong's 13th weekend of protests

Officials assist arriving passengers near a blockade set up by protesters at Hong Kong International Airport on Sunday.

A Hong Kong protester walking in front of a burning barricade

Protesters clash with police in Hong Kong on Saturday

Protesters react after police fired tear gas outside the government headquarters in Hong Kong

Hong Kong protesters ignore government ban in 13th weekend of protests

They left the airport before police carried out a threat to remove them.

Axios

Sunday's top stories

Top officials: China a national security threat

Top literary agents say Trump's ex-personal secretary could make millions

Trump allies plot new war on social media

Trump trade war: 15% tariffs on Chinese imports take effect

Hong Kong protesters ignore government ban in 13th weekend of protests

Trump seeks political gain from low gasoline prices

Trump's revealing tweet about the Iranian space center crash

Food delivery robots target college towns

Trump forgives ousted aide for speaking with reporters

Two Americas, tuning each other out