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National

There's a reckoning coming over fakeness online, as people increasingly realize the dangers of an online ecosystem where everything is definitely not all right.

The big picture: "Everything that once seemed definitively and unquestionably real now seems slightly fake; everything that once seemed slightly fake now has the power and presence of the real," Max Read writes for New York Magazine.

"How much of the internet is fake? Studies generally suggest that, year after year, less than 60 percent of web traffic is human; some years, according to some researchers, a healthy majority of it is bot."

"The internet has always played host in its dark corners to schools of catfish and embassies of Nigerian princes, but that darkness now pervades its every aspect."

Why it matters: Legit media companies and businesses need to be making decisions for their human customers. That gets harder for everyone when bots and fake metrics swamp the internet.

A partial list of fake things online, compiled by NYMag:

Metrics: Facebook is being sued over how its video view count is measured.

People: Faked video views, sold by the thousands, and "click farms" where phones and computers are controlled to watch content or visit sites.

Content: On the benign side, you can find YouTube videos with versions of popular children's characters like Elsa from "Frozen." On the malignant side, there are "deepfakes" that will blur the line of reality.

Be smart, from some of my Axios colleagues:

Tech editor Scott Rosenberg: "Fake metrics" have always been with us — from print circulation figures, which were always inflated, to the infamously unreliable Nielsen box. Fake is cheaper than ever online so there's more of it, but so much of it is a shadow-puppet play being performed in the ad marketplace with very little actual impact on users. (But lots on businesses.)

Rameez Tase, VP of Audience Development & Insights: "Much of the ecosystem is built on false premises: People create fake news to get fake traffic, reinforced by fake metrics, predicated on business models that don't work. Then it seeps into real-life discourse, where people discuss fake news as if it's real."

Go deeper, via Axios' Sara Fischer, who writes our weekly Media Trends newsletter:

Misinformation bots are smarter than we thought

The overwhelming fakeness of today's internet

It's possible that less than 60 percent of web traffic is human.

Gif of the tab that people mark proving they are not a robot

Technology

Internet

Business

Media

Top stories & latest news on the Federal Reserve, real-time data, plus the biggest shifts happening in the U.S. and global economy.

Economy

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

Macro

Axios Macro

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounded over 800 points from its low earlier in the day to close up 260 points Thursday, while the Nasdaq and S&P rose less than 1%.

Why it matters: Volatility is back, as we've seen over the past few months and every trading session this holiday week.

Stocks close higher after wild roller coaster ride

The Dow rebounded almost 900 points from its low earlier in the day.

Stock market

House Majority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) advised House members Thursday that a vote on a short-term spending bill to end the partial government shutdown is not expected to be held this week, pending any Senate action.

Why it matters: It appears likely that the partial government shutdown will continue at least until next week — and perhaps into 2019. The newly elected Democratic-led House is set to take office on Jan. 3. 

House doesn't plan to vote to end shutdown this week

The partial shutdown is likely to continue into next week.

Capitol Hill with caution tape near entrances

The Capitol Building is seen on the first day of a partial federal government shutdown. Photo: Oliver Contreras for The Washington Post via Getty Images

Politics

Government shutdown

2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

Politics & Policy

Outgoing Defense Secretary James Mattis rejected a request from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to soften the United States' conditions for a $500 million arms deal between Israel and Croatia for the sale of 12 F-16 fighter jets, an Israeli official told me.

Why it matters: Mattis' position practically killed the deal, according to the Israeli official, who is involved in the negotiations. In order to give a green light to the deal, the U.S. demanded that Israel remove the Israeli systems installed in the F-16s and return the jets to their original condition before transferring them to Croatia. The Croatians responded that they would cancel the deal if they couldn't get the "upgraded" Israeli version of the F-16s.

The Israeli official told me Netanyahu called Mattis two weeks ago — before the latter's resignation — and asked him to soften the U.S. terms for the deal. Mattis told Netanyahu he had gone a long way for Israel on several issues but couldn't show any flexibility regarding this deal.

Netanyahu considered calling Marilyn Hewson, the president and CEO of Lockheed Martin, which manufactures the jets, to ask for help in getting the deal approved but ultimately decided it was a lost cause, according to the Israeli official.

What they're saying: The Israeli official told me, "For reasons we don't fully understand, the Americans hardened their conditions and, apparently, we misread their position on the deal. Practically, the F-16 deal with Croatia is dead and we don't think it is possible to get an agreement that will reconcile the U.S. conditions and the Croatian demands in the tender."

The official added that Israel will have no other choice but "to apologize to Croatia for the deal falling apart and move on."

Netanyahu's office didn't comment. The Pentagon and the State Department also didn't respond to emails with requests for comment.

U.S. lays out terms for $500 million Israel-Croatia arms deal

Croatia says it's up to Israel to solve rift with U.S. on blocked F-16 deal

Scoop: Mattis rejected Netanyahu's request on arms deal with Croatia

The U.S. wanted Israel to remove its upgrades from F-16s before selling them.

World

Israel

Conflicts, policies and powers are intersecting and shaping the world. Breaking news and analysis of national security, foreign policy and global crises.

Media Trends

Axios Media Trends

Instagram head Adam Mosseri took to Twitter Thursday to reassure users alarmed by an unannounced change in the apps' interface that the shift from a vertical scroll to a horizontal swipe was just a test that accidentally rolled out widely. 

Why it matters: There have been reports that Instagram has been testing the new design for months, presumably to foster deeper user engagement with content and less "mindless scrolling" between posts.

What they're saying:  "This was supposed to be a very small test but we went broader than we anticipated...Should already be rolled back," Mosseri said on Twitter. 

The big picture: Mindless scrolling between posts was a big problem for Instagram's parent company Facebook, and was something executives told investors repeatedly that they wanted to fix. 

To do so, Facebook changed the type of content it would algorithmically surface in the feed to include fewer posts from brands and media companies, and more from friends and family. 

Instagram seems to be trying a different approach: Swiping requires a more deliberate thumb gesture than scrolling. 

Between the lines: Some users complained about the adjustment on social media, arguing that it made the functionality difficult to understand and that the "swipe" function between posts was not preferable to scrolling. 

Yes, but: Users frequently complain about app redesigns at first before they adjust to changes. There was an uproar in 2015 when Instagram updated the app so that posts were no longer chronological, but rather algorithmically surfaced in the feed. 

Be smart: With most redesigns, users do eventually come around. But we've seen with Snapchat's redesign earlier this year how that effort can go very wrong, and alienate  users who feel that the changes go too far. 

Instagram assures users horizontal feed change was just a test

The change from scroll to swipe alarmed some users.

The Instagram app is seen in the App Store on an iPhone. Photo: Jaap Arriens/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Instagram

Big Tech

From the Valley to D.C., Big Tech players like Facebook, Google and Amazon are under more scrutiny than ever as new technology develops and privacy and antitrust concerns grow in lockstep with companies’ ambitions.

When President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un held their historic summit in Singapore this June, they signed a statement that they would "work toward a complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula."

The big picture: Negotiations have stalled. North Korea is not making a good faith effort to live up to its promises, and the regime has even drawn up its own preconditions for denuclearization that may prove impossible to meet.

Tensions began easing in 2018 when North and South Korea entered the Olympics together. Soon after, Trump agreed to meet with Kim later in the year. 

In the meantime, then-CIA Director Mike Pompeo went to North Korea to negotiate. He eventually brought home 3 freed American prisoners.

Kim threatened to cancel the planned summit with Trump over U.S.-South Korean military drills in the region, but it was Trump who ended up canceling the meeting when Kim didn’t reveal summit planning details.

Kim and Trump ended up meeting in June after all, the first time sitting leaders of the two countries met.

They pledged they would work toward "complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula" in a joint statement.

But North Korea has still refused to provide documentation of its nuclear weapons and production sites, and satellite imagery suggests they've ramped up work.

What's next: Pompeo said we "still are working through the execution of Chairman Kim's commitment to denuclearize" and added we are "undoubtedly…in a better place today" compared to a year ago.

Pompeo said he hopes Trump and Kim meet in early 2019 to negotiate.

North Korea has demanded the U.S. eliminate its own nuclear threats around the Korean peninsula before North Korea denuclearizes.

The bottom line: North Korea has approached denuclearization several times before, and negotiations have always faltered when North Korea sidesteps verification that it has, in fact, denuclearized. This time appears to be no different.

What it's like to negotiate with North Korea

North Korea is a black hole for U.S. intelligence

The year in North Korea with Trump and "Little Rocket Man"

Despite agreeing to "complete denuclearization," negotiations are at an impasse.

Illustration of three cups and under one is a nuclear warhead.

North Korea

Michelle Obama unseated Hillary Clinton as the most admired woman in the U.S., claiming the title alongside her husband, former President Barack Obama, who has remained the most admired man for 11 straight years, according to Gallup's annual poll.

The big picture: Clinton held the title of most admired woman for 17 consecutive years, but this year was surpassed by both Obama and Oprah Winfrey. President Trump came in second place for the fourth year in a row, marking only the 13th time — and Trump's second — that a sitting president didn't top the list since its inception in 1946.

Gallup: The Obamas are America's most admired man and woman

Michelle unseated Hillary Clinton, who topped the list for 17 years.

Barack and Michelle Obama sitting down next to each other and leaning toward each other laughing. 

Barack Obama

MSNBC topped Fox News in total viewers during the week of Dec. 17 for the first time since 2000 as its flagship "The Rachel Maddow Show" ended the week as cable news' most-watched program. (Update: Fox News notes that Sean Hannity, who is opposite Maddow at 9 p.m. ET, has been out for the holidays since Dec. 14.) 

The big picture: MSNBC's rise comes as the AP reports that Fox News' fortunes may be tied to the state of news from the Trump administration. Sean Hannity, the network's preeminent host and "Maddow" competitor, is set to earn the title of most popular cable news personality this year, but his ratings have fallen 19% in the month following the midterm elections as the rest of Fox News' prime time slate have also fallen 20% in the same time period.

Disclosure: NBC is an investor in Axios and NBC News Chairman Andy Lack is on our board of directors.

MSNBC tops Fox News for the first time since 2000

MSNBC's Brian Williams and Rachel Maddow. Photo: Heidi Gutman/MSNBC/NBCU Photo Bank via Getty Images

MSNBC

Incoming House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer said on Wednesday that Democrats plan to investigate the deaths of 8-year-old migrant Felipe Gomez Alonzo and 7-year-old Jakelin Caal in Customs and Border Patrol custody once Democrats take control of the House next month.

Why it matters: Felipe had been held in detention long past CBP's stated limit of 72 hours, and Jakelin was held in a center without running water, AP reports. But Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen blamed the deaths on "a system that prevents parents who bring their children on a dangerous illegal journey from facing consequences for their actions." Another House Democrat from Texas, Rep. Henry Cuellar, told AP the U.S. should examine funding more detention alternatives, like ankle bracelets. 

Democrats plan to investigate deaths of migrant children in U.S. custody

It's on the docket once they take over the House next month.

Silhouettes of two young, migrant children at night by the border

Central American migrant children play at a temporary shelter in downtown Tijuana. Photo: Guillermo Arias/AFP/Getty Images

Axios

Thursday's top stories