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National

The Trump administration is considering pressuring the Afghan government to postpone next year's presidential election as it seeks a peace deal with the Taliban to end the 17-year war, reports the Wall Street Journal, citing people briefed on the talks. 

Why it matters: Some officials in Washington fear that voting irregularities and violence that routinely occur in Afghan elections could undermine or destroy the prospect of a peace deal. But this request “would be a contentious move that runs counter to the long-held U.S. objective of promoting democracy in Afghanistan," and it could potentially create friction between both countries, the WSJ writes. President Ashraf Ghani has already come out against such a proposal. 

The details: Kabul would need financial and military support from the U.S. if the election were delayed, but Afghan leaders are reportedly skeptical of American influence.

Ghani, who’s expected to run for a second five-year term, recently said the April 20 vote will proceed as scheduled. 

Ghani’s spokesman told the WSJ: “Continuity in a democratic process is a must, and any other proposal than the will of Afghans, which is outlined in our constitution, is simply not acceptable.” 

17 years later, Americans tend to consider Afghanistan a failure

Frustrated Trump may reconsider Afghanistan strategy

Report: U.S. considers asking Afghanistan to postpone election

While seeking a peace deal with the Taliban to end the 17-year war

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Photo: Wakil Kohsar /AFP/Getty Images

World

Afghanistan

Politics

Macro

Axios Macro

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 602 points lower on Monday, according to Yahoo Finance. The S&P 500 fell over 2%, putting it negative for the year, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.8%.

Between the lines: Volatility is back with a vengeance. There's no single reason stocks are selling off — despite President Trump's unfounded claim to the contrary — although one driver today was Apple shares dropping after one of its key suppliers reported a decrease in order volume. 

Stocks get hammered, with Dow off 600 points

Trader on the floor of the new york stock exchange

Photo: Bryan R. Smith/AFP via Getty Images

Business

Wall Street

Top stories & latest news on the Federal Reserve, real-time data, plus the biggest shifts happening in the U.S. and global economy.

Economy

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

Uber released a new report Monday, created in partnership with the National Sexual Violence Resource Center (NSVRC) and the Urban Institute, that outlined a new "taxonomy" for categorizing incidents of sexual harassment, misconduct and assault.

Why it matters: Underreporting of incidents and differences in definitions make it difficult to collect data on sexual misconduct. Uber's hope is that a standardized taxonomy — which categorizes 21 types of misconduct ranging from "staring and leering" to "non-consensual sexual penetration" — will help companies respond more effectively to allegations of abuse. Uber and its main competitor Lyft have taken similar steps this year to make it easier to report incidents of sexual assault and harassment, like removing a requirement for mandatory arbitration.

Uber develops system for categorizing sexual assault claims

It hopes a universal taxonomy will help companies respond more effectively to allegations.

Photo: Smith Collection/Gado via Getty Images

Technology

Uber

Big Tech

From the Valley to D.C., Big Tech players like Facebook, Google and Amazon are under more scrutiny than ever as new technology develops and privacy and antitrust concerns grow in lockstep with companies’ ambitions.

Dan is joined by his wife Dr. Jennifer Primack, a research psychologist at the VA Medical Center in Rhode Island, to discuss the growing epidemic of veteran's suicide.

"It’s Veteran’s Day, and the mantra of 'Never Forget' has taken on tragic new meaning for those who came home from the battlefield, but then succumbed to mental health issues at home."  

Podcast: Confronting veteran suicide

'Never Forget' has taken on tragic new meaning for those who came home from the battlefield, but then succumbed to mental health issues at home.

Health Care

Pro Rata Podcast

Axios Re:Cap

Podcasts

California's wildfire siege continues and may worsen Monday and Tuesday as thousands of firefighters continue to battle massive blazes up and down the state. Fanned by strong Santa Ana winds and taking advantage of near-record dry conditions, the fires are roaring into both neighborhoods and the record books. 

The big picture: With at least 29 fatalities as of Monday morning, the Camp Fire has become the state's deadliest wildfire on record since 1933. With more than 200 people still missing, this wildfire, which all but destroyed the town of Paradise, about 90 miles north of Sacramento, is likely to overtake the Griffith Park Fire to become the state's deadliest such event on record. 

It's already the state's most destructive fire, having consumed at least 6,713 structures, including more than 6,400 homes. 

The latest: Another dry, warm and blustery day is forecast across California on Monday, with Santa Ana winds leading to "extremely critical" wildfire danger in areas affected by the Camp Fire and the Woolsey Fire, which is burning in Ventura and Los Angeles counties. The fire danger will remain at unusually high levels through at least Tuesday, according to the National Weather Service. 

The Woolsey Fire has burned 91,572 acres as of Monday morning and was 20% contained. It has destroyed an estimated 370 structures, killed at least 2 people, and forced the evacuation of the entire community of Malibu. 

Nearly 2 dozen helicopters continuously dumped water and fire retardant on the blaze Sunday to protect more homes.

The broader context: Fire season is now running year-round in California, and studies show that warmer, more parched dry seasons that last longer into the fall are consistent with expectations from climate change. They are also a key part of what's elevating wildfire risk, according to researchers. 

The trends: California is experiencing one of its worst wildfire seasons on record, on the heels of a historic 2017. This year, the Golden State had its hottest month in state history and was scorched by the largest fire the state has ever recorded.

According to Aon Insurance meteorologist Steve Bowen, 7 of the 20 most destructive fires in the state have occurred since October 2017. 

One of the biggest changes firefighters are having to contend with is an uptick in instances of extreme fire behavior, such as the massive EF-4 fire tornado that accompanied the Carr Fire in July.

At the regional level, Northern California has had its worst fire season on record this year, in terms of acres burned.

California has had one of its warmest and driest 6-month periods on record since 1895 (May through October), according to NOAA. Much of California has not seen measurable rain in months, and vegetation moisture levels are near all-time lows. This provides abundant "fuel" for fires to burn.

Longer-term climate change, land management practices and population growth are combining to cause increased wildfire risk in California, including in highly populated areas.

The bottom line: The 2018 fire season is a preview of what's to come as California continues to experience the effects of climate change, population growth and other trends that are raising wildfire risks year-round. 

Special Report: A 30-year alarm on the reality of climate change

In photos: Woolsey fire wreaks havoc on Southern California

Paradise lost: California wildfire is the most destructive in state history

California wildfires: Death toll sets record as Santa Ana winds continue

Seven of the 20 most destructive fires in the state have occurred since October 2017.

A home destroyed by the Woolsey Fire in Malibu, one of several deadly fires burning in California.

A home destroyed by the Woolsey Fire. Credit: Hans Gutknecht/Digital First Media/Los Angeles Daily News via Getty Images

Science

Wildfires

Climate change

Breaking climate science and policy coverage as extreme weather events reshape communities. Keep tabs on the race to a low carbon economy, which may be bumpy as governments, climate tech startups and major oil and gas companies race to find their niche amid the changing energy landscape.

Energy & Climate

America's soybean farmers are hanging onto their crops in an attempt to wait out President Trump's trade war with China, more than doubling U.S. soybean inventories, reports Bloomberg.

The big picture: Retaliatory tariffs have drastically pushed down demand for American soybeans in China, easily the crop's largest market, with imports down by nearly 90%. And prices have fallen, too, as a bushel of soybeans now trades for less than $9 compared to more than $11 earlier in the year.

Between the lines: Unlike corn, soybeans don't store well, so farmers are risking their livelihoods for an economic detente that isn't guaranteed.

Soy had become one of the few bright spots in the American farming market given Chinese demand, so production has reached record levels just as demand crashed.

But many farmers have the same idea, pushing potential soy storage areas like containers and silos to the limit, forcing some to resort to one-time-use plastic bags. "I’ve heard farmers and commercial companies putting corn and soybeans into tool sheds and caves," Soren Schroder, the CEO of Bunge, the world’s largest processor of soybeans, told Bloomberg.

What's next: Bloomberg pegs soybean futures at $9.27 for next July, meaning that farmers could at least recoup some of their cash — even if it won't be at levels like earlier this year — as hope springs that the U.S. and China could reach a soybean deal at the G-20.

Soybeans are an unlikely political ground zero in Trump's trade war

China figures out how to live without U.S. lobster and soybeans

Split Congress could be good news for farm economy

U.S. soybean farmers hang on for dear life in Trump's China trade war

Soybean inventories have more than doubled in the past year.

Farmer Terry Davidson walks through his soy fields in Illinois in July. Photo: Nova Safo/AFP/Getty Images

Trump tariffs

Axios AM

House Democrats plan to probe every aspect of President Trump’s life and work, from family business dealings, the Space Force and his tax returns to possible "leverage" by Russia, top Democrats tell us. 

What they're saying: One senior Democratic source said the new majority, which takes power in January, is preparing a "subpoena cannon," like an arena T-shirt cannon.  

Based on our reporting and other public sources, Axios' Zach Basu has assembled a list of at least 85 potential Trump-related investigation and subpoena targets for the new majority. (See the list.)

Incoming House Intelligence chairman Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) told “Axios on HBO” that he expects Trump to resist the committees' requests, demands and subpoenas — likely pushing fights over documents and testimony as far as the Supreme Court.

Why it matters: The fight will test the power of the presidency, Congress and the Supreme Court.

Top Democrats, who had largely avoided the subject during the campaign, now tell us they plan to almost immediately begin exploring possible grounds for impeachment. A public report by Robert Mueller would ignite the kindling.

Tom Steyer, the liberal activist who spent more than $100 million during the campaign to build support for impeachment, said establishment leaders who are trying to postpone talk of impeachment are "the outliers": "80% of registered Democrats think ... we're right."

Two of the most powerful incoming chairs tell "Axios on HBO" that they are plotting action far beyond Russian interference in the 2016 elections.

1) Schiff, the top Democrat on the Intelligence Committee, told us he wants to help special counsel Robert Mueller and plans to release — with some redactions of classified material — transcripts of dozens of interviews the committee conducted during its own Russia probe.

Schiff says these transcripts contain numerous possible contradictions with other testimony and facts that have come to light, meaning possible legal jeopardy for the witnesses, who have included White House officials and alumni. 

"I want to make sure that Bob Mueller has the advantage of the evidence that we've been able to gather," Schiff said. "But equally important: that Bob Mueller is in a position to determine whether people knowingly committed perjury before our committee."

Asked if there are real questions about contradictions between the testimony of Roger Stone, a close ally of the Trump campaign, and emails that have surfaced since then, Schiff said: "That is certainly the case."

Schiff said: "We're going to want to look at what leverage the Russians may have over the president of the United States."

2) Incoming House Appropriations Chair Nita Lowey of New York, a close ally of House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi, said "yes" to each of a long list of possible investigative targets, including the Space Force, hurricane relief in Puerto Rico, White House security clearances, White House use of personal email and more. 

"We have our boxing gloves on," Lowey said. "I'm ready. And so is Nancy."

We reminded Lowey and Schiff of a Jonathan Swan scoop from August, "Republicans secretly study their coming hell," reporting that House Republicans had built a spreadsheet of potential investigation targets, based on Democrats' public complaints and statements. 

Both Lowey and Schiff made it clear that the GOP list is just a starting point. 

So look for probes of James Comey's firing; Attorney General Jeff Sessions' ouster; the Muslim travel ban; family separation policy at the border; discussions of classified information at Mar-a-Lago; administration dealings with North Korea and Saudi Arabia; and so much more. 

Trump is already signaling confrontation, saying at his post-election news conference that if Dems investigate him, the result will be "a warlike posture."

Asked if he'll investigate the Democrats back, he replied: "Oh, yeah. Better than them." 

Be smart: For 225+ years, federal courts have upheld the Constitution's mandate of Congress as an equal branch of government, providing checks and balances on the executive. So House Democrats have a high hand as they assume power. 

Democratic hit list: At least 85 Trump investigation targets

Republicans secretly study their coming hell

Democrats to probe Trump for targeting CNN, Washington Post

Democrats load "subpoena cannon" with 85+ Trump targets

The fight will test the power of the presidency, Congress and the Supreme Court.

Axios

Monday's top stories

Report: U.S. considers asking Afghanistan to postpone election

Stocks get hammered, with Dow off 600 points

Uber develops system for categorizing sexual assault claims

Podcast: Confronting veteran suicide

California wildfires: Death toll sets record as Santa Ana winds continue

U.S. soybean farmers hang on for dear life in Trump's China trade war

Democrats load "subpoena cannon" with 85+ Trump targets

Democratic hit list: At least 85 Trump investigation targets

Exclusive poll: Most Democrats see Republicans as racist, sexist

Climate change is getting too big and divisive to solve

Pelosi, McCarthy are the frontrunners in House leadership elections

White House clears hurdle on criminal justice reform