Axios

You can't fix a supply problem by boosting demand — and it would be counterproductive for countries to try to stimulate their way out of the pain of the Iran war's energy shock.

The big picture: That is a key message from Kristalina Georgieva, the International Monetary Fund managing director, in a curtain-raiser Thursday morning ahead of the spring meetings of the fund and World Bank next week.

Seven & i Holdings, the Japanese owner of 7-Eleven convenience stores, is delaying an IPO of its North American unit from this year until April 2027 "at the earliest."

The big picture: It's a reminder that the macro matters.

The Iran war is highlighting the fragile nature of global drug supply chains as disruptions ripple far beyond the Persian Gulf.

Why it matters: Even if the ceasefire holds, disruptions to air cargo and the Strait of Hormuz bring the threat of higher prices for generic drugs and spot shortages, especially in developing countries.

Some Federal Reserve officials wanted to keep interest rate increases on the table, given the stubborn inflation that was set to be amplified by the Iran war, according to minutes from the central bank's March 17-18 policy meeting, released Wednesday.

Why it matters: Even as many officials see rate cuts down the line, the prospect of increasing rates highlights the uncertainty about the path of borrowing costs this year.

Airline stocks surged Wednesday as a ceasefire in the Iran war eased fears of a prolonged fuel shock and Delta signaled that travel demand remains strong.

Why it matters: The spike in jet fuel prices has sparked fears of a slowdown in travel as ticket prices rise — but Delta's projections suggest travelers will be resilient.

Gasoline prices could start reversing nationally in the next two days by dropping a few cents daily, GasBuddy head of petroleum analysis Patrick De Haan said Tuesday night.

Why it matters: Average U.S. gas prices have climbed more than 70 cents over the past month due to the Iran conflict, presenting a worsening political headache for President Trump.

The U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire Tuesday night — with a commitment to open the Strait of Hormuz — and oil prices plunged, the biggest one-day fall for Brent crude since the 1991 Gulf War.

Why it matters: Investors seemed to see it coming, even as many others agonized over President Trump's threat to eliminate Iran's "civilization," and stocks barely flinched Tuesday, just as they have declined only modestly since the war started.

Untangling the largest disruption in oil market history won't happen quickly or easily — and that means continued high prices and scarcity in major importing countries.

Why it matters: A big thing to watch following the U.S.-Iran ceasefire deal is whether it gives tanker owners enough certainty to begin resumption of large-scale traffic of oil, petroleum products and other commodities through the Strait of Hormuz.

NATO chief Mark Rutte returns to Washington this week, facing fresh doubts about the alliance inside the White House and on the Hill.

Why it matters: His relationship with President Trump will be put to the test, as the geopolitical stakes — the near-future of the transatlantic bond, ongoing war in the Middle East, gas-price gloom, European rearmament and more — ratchet up.

Officials in the U.S. and Israel learned of an intriguing development on Monday, with President Trump's ultimatum looming: Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei had instructed his negotiators, for the first time since the war began, to move towards a deal, according to an Israeli official, a regional official and a third source with knowledge.

The big picture: As Trump was publicly threatening total annihilation, there were signs of diplomatic momentum behind the scenes — though even sources close to Trump didn't know which outcome to expect right up until a ceasefire was announced.