Axios

The Iran war is hurting countries far from the Middle East that have no direct involvement in the conflict — and while the U.S. has largely escaped the worst economic impacts, experts warn this could soon change.

Why it matters: As American and Iranian negotiators inch toward a peac deal, the conflict is hurting countries the U.S. relies on for key imports.

WASHINGTON — Tech giants building out what's needed to support artificial intelligence should be the ones paying as electricity prices climb, energy experts agreed at an Axios Live event on April 14.

Why it matters: Rising energy bills and local disruptions from the data center boom are becoming a political flashpoint ahead of the 2026 midterms.

Axios' Hans Nichols and Sabrina Moreno moderated conversations with Peter Lake, senior director of power for the National Energy Dominance Council, and Reps. Julie Fedorchak (R-N.D.) and Jennifer McClellan (D-Va.). The event was sponsored by the Edison Electric Institute.

What they're saying: Bipartisan lawmakers agree that data center operators should cover their own costs.

• "The people who need the energy need to pay for the energy, and they're willing to do it," Fedorchak said.
• We need to "make sure that data centers are paying their fair share of the energy demands that they produce, and not consumers or other businesses," McClellan said.

State of play: A bipartisan bill from Sens. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) and Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) would guarantee that consumers are protected from data center energy costs.

• The measure would ensure the centers use energy from generation sources separate from the grid, preventing costs from being passed on to ratepayers.

Yes, but: Congress is still "behind the curve," McClellan said. "I think that it needs to be a federal, state and local responsibility, all working cooperatively."

The bottom line: Cloud companies looking to build new data centers must "build, bring or buy" their own electricity generation, Lake said. "Affordability in electricity is a choice."

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Southern Company chair, president and CEO Chris Womack told Axios publisher Nicholas Johnston that utilities are already structuring partnerships to keep ratepayers protected.

• Data centers are "paying their full freight, they're putting up collateral," Womack said. "We're making sure that the cost of data center construction is not being borne by anyone else."

Bayer CEO Bill Anderson says the German crop science and drug company is hoping to move past the long-running controversy over its Roundup weedkiller in 2026.

Why it matters: Bayer — which acquired Roundup when it bought Monsanto in 2018 — recently announced a $7.25 billion settlement deal and is awaiting a Supreme Court ruling that could decide the product's fate in the U.S.

To understand what the global economy will do this year, you have to understand what happens next in the Iran war.

• The outlook for the war and its aftermath, and what that means for the free passage of energy through the Strait of Hormuz, is the global economic outlook.
• That's the uncomfortable reality hanging over the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Group spring meetings this week.

Why it matters: The economic pain is uneven: Poorer countries that import their oil carry the heaviest weight.

• The U.S. — the country that started the conflict — is poised to suffer the least economic damage, by almost every measure.
• Still, a prolonged surge in prices for gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, fertilizer and more would exact a toll in the U.S.

The intrigue: There is little else on the minds of finance ministers, central bankers and other policymakers meeting in D.C. this week but the shock that is rattling their respective economies.

Consider the economic forecast that set the tone for the meetings. The IMF slashed its global growth forecast as it predicted a surge in inflation this year.

What they're saying: "The impact of the war will be uneven," IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told reporters on Tuesday.

• Alongside a baseline scenario, the IMF released two other forecasts in the event of a more prolonged conflict: an adverse scenario of a sharper economic slowdown and a more severe scenario that has the global economy flirting with an outright recession.
• But the growth hit for poorer nations would be twice as large as that for richer nations, the IMF said.
• "Every day that passes and every day that we have more disruption in energy, we are drifting closer toward the adverse scenario," Gourinchas said.

Zoom out: "The U.S. isn't vulnerable. It's the Asian countries who are," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters when asked about the Strait of Hormuz blockade imposed earlier this week.

• "I can say that the president signaled that it would be a four- to six-week process ... and I think we're close to that," top White House economist Kevin Hassett told Axios.

The bottom line: Even if the U.S. escapes the worst, it still faces higher commodity prices — especially at the pump.

• Will inflation pressures at home eventually force President Trump to seek a quicker end to the war?

Former World Bank president David Malpass told Axios: "It's a clear supply shock — and so that's not just oil and natural gas, but in other products that are coming through the Strait of Hormuz. That takes time for the world to adjust to."

• "But my observation is markets are really good at adjusting to a supply shock."

The S&P 500 just took a round-trip — the stock benchmark for investors has recovered, and then some, from a war-driven selloff.

Why it matters: It's a split-screen moment: investor enthusiasm happening alongside the biggest energy shock in history, a rise in inflation and warnings about slower economic growth.

The International Monetary Fund cut its 2026 global economic growth forecast Tuesday, warning of slower growth and higher inflation thanks to the Iran war.

Why it matters: The war and energy shock in tow has halted economic momentum — and even a rather short conflict will do real damage, it finds.

Global oil consumption is slated to dip this year as high prices and scarce supplies bring "demand destruction," the International Energy Agency projected Tuesday.

Why it matters: It's a stunning reflection of the historic throttling of supplies from the Iran war.

Technology that captures carbon emissions from power plants may finally get a breakthrough as deep-pocketed tech companies try to meet climate goals while powering the AI race.

Why it matters: It could help make natural gas electricity cleaner, but it's long been too expensive. The AI boom could change that.

A deal is still possible to end the war — and a U.S. naval blockade against Iranian ports is set to take effect in a few hours.

Why it matters: A successful blockade could force Iran to make concessions to end hostilities and open the Strait of Hormuz to all.

• Even opponents of the war and Trump appear to support the idea.

Oil prices jumped over 7% to well over $100 per barrel when markets opened Sunday evening and remained high into Monday.

Why it matters: The latest surge shows that traders don't see last week's U.S.-Iran ceasefire deal reviving large-scale tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz — and it undoes a large amount of the price drop that followed the pause in hostilities.