Axios

President Trump will address the nation on Wednesday evening on the war in Iran, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said.

Why it matters: Leavitt's Tuesday evening announcement on X came soon after Trump told reporters at the White House that U.S. forces could leave the Middle East in "two or three weeks."

The oil shortage brought on by the Iran war will spread throughout the world, much as COVID-19 did, moving from east to west and leaving a path of destruction in its wake, a new analysis says.

Why it matters: If the oil shock plays out along those lines, it would mean the global economy has only just begun to feel the pain of the war's impact.

U.S. average gas prices have hit $4 per gallon nationwide, per AAA.

Why it matters: It's a 35% increase at the pump since the war in Iran began last month, and there's little hope that costs will ease as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to most ships, straining supplies worldwide.

Pope Leo XIV is emerging as a cautious voice of moral opposition to President Trump's policies, challenging the president's approach to world affairs without calling him out by name.

Why it matters: The first U.S.-born pontiff is in a "unique position" and standing as an international figure because of the nature of the office, papal scholars tell Axios.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told Axios on Monday that a long war in Iran would be very good for Russia and very bad for Ukraine.

Why it matters: Russia's oil-dependent economy is getting a big boost from surging oil prices and the loosening of U.S. sanctions, while the conflict could lead to shortages of air defense interceptors and other weapons Ukraine desperately needs, Zelensky said.

President Trump hinted Monday that the Iran war may be over soon — the latest in a series of occasions he has teased that the conflict might end.

Why it matters: Trump's messaging on the Iran war's endgame is all over the map as he attempts to make his case to the American people that the conflict will not lead to prolonged war.

The U.S. has a key advantage in weathering the Iran war-triggered energy shock that was missing in previous episodes of overseas tumult: an economy that has become substantially less energy-intensive.

Why it matters: Higher prices at the gasoline pump, for jet fuel and for diesel will no doubt hurt. But in relative terms, both the average household and the economy as a whole have more capacity to weather the hit than in the past.

The Houthis — a military rebel group from Yemen — have joined the Iran war, massively complicating the road ahead for the United States.

Why it matters: Houthi involvement not only gives Iran another ally in the war but could exacerbate the global energy and shipping crises caused by closing the Strait of Hormuz.

President Trump threatened on Monday that if a deal with Iran "is not shortly reached" and if the Hormuz Strait isn't open "immediately," the U.S. will "completely obliterate" Iran's power, energy and water infrastructure.

Why it matters: Destroying those facilities would not only have devastating implications for Iranian civilians, it could also deepen the war-driven global energy crisis. The threat comes a week before Trump's latest deadline for Iran expires, and with the regime showing few signs of bending.

Forget earnings reports or other corporate announcements, the stock market really has just two main catalysts this year: AI anxiety and President Trump.

Why it matters: It's like a pinball machine where the flippers are Truth Social and Anthropic blog posts.