Axios

The liberal pro-Israel group J Street is launching a $3 million offensive against five AIPAC-backed Republicans in some of the nation's most competitive midterm races, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: The battle over Israel, which roiled Democratic primaries and fueled tens of millions of dollars in outside spending, is spilling into the general election and pitting two pro-Israel groups against each other.

As scientists warn about the risk of AI killing us all, the question is why governments and companies haven't done more to reduce the risk.

The big picture: The same capabilities making AI economically valuable and increasingly useful also make advanced systems harder to contain.

Major banks are upping their oil price estimates for the months and even years ahead.

Why it matters: Despite White House claims that it controls the Strait of Hormuz, the status of the vital energy chokepoint and other regional shipping could be messy for a long time.

Home heating oil bills are likely to be massive this winter in the Northeast — and as one such homeowner, I am terrified.

Why it matters: Beyond my ability to keep my daughter and dog alive through the long, dark suburban winter, the looming shadow of the oil delivery truck underscores the costs consumers are bearing as a result of parallel wars in Iran and Ukraine.

• U.S. gasoline prices averaged $4.15 for a gallon of regular on Tuesday, according to AAA.
• Diesel hit an all-time high price of $5.90 a gallon on Monday and stayed there on Tuesday.

LIV Golf — the Saudi-backed league that upended the sport with a costly splash but failed to identify a viable business model — filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Tuesday.

Why it matters: It's an ignominious turn of events for a brash organization that lured some of the biggest stars away from the PGA Tour with enormous paydays that proved to be unsustainable.

Goldman Sachs' chief information officer Marco Argenti says companies shouldn't rule out the use of open-weight models, so long as they follow a set of safeguards he shared exclusively with Axios.

The big picture: Argenti is adding his voice to a growing list of executives supporting open-weight models.

Democrats have gained sharply with Latino voters in some of the country's most competitive House districts since 2024, a new Hart Research/TelevisaUnivision poll shared exclusively with Axios shows.

Why it matters: President Trump came close to erasing Democrats' longtime advantage among Latinos in the last presidential election. Now, with control of Congress at stake and Trump's approval ratings hitting new lows, that breakthrough appears to have eroded.

The U.S. is exploring whether Ukraine and Russia could take steps to de-escalate the war during the winter while restarting negotiations toward a broader peace agreement, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told Axios in an interview Monday.

Why it matters: The Ukrainian president believes the weeks before winter offer a window for diplomacy. While Zelensky said he's convinced Russian President Vladimir Putin is counting on another brutal winter to weaken Ukraine, he added that Putin doesn't want to antagonize the U.S. president ahead of the midterm elections.

The war in Iran has now cost U.S. consumers $100 billion in higher energy prices, and the bill is rising another $1 million about every two minutes, per a real-time estimate from Brown University as of Monday morning.

Why it matters: Energy inflation shows up across the entire economy, and the recent surge in diesel prices in particular threatens to have a dramatic impact on freight and travel in the weeks and months to come.

Germany's far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) won a record 44% in Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday, leaving a small party with seats that could determine whether it can lead the nation's first far-right state government since World War II.

Why it matters: Germany rebuilt its democracy after Nazi rule with unusually strong safeguards against extremism. AfD's breakthrough shows those barriers aren't stopping Europe's far right from becoming dominant electoral forces.