Financial crises

The media overcorrects for its past flubs

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Most business reporters didn't see the Great Recession of 2008 coming, and political media knew Hillary Clinton would win.

Why it matters: As recession signals flash once again and the 2020 election looms, they're both over-correcting — afraid of missing the world's biggest story — again.

The Treasury yield curve inverts again

The 10-year/3-month Treasury yield curve inverted again on Thursday, but investors may have missed it because it lasted for only minutes. It's the second time this year the yield curve has inverted, which is an accurate recession indicator cited by the Fed.

Be smart: Investors and market analysts have largely written off the inversion as the product of central bank manipulation or a market aberration, and the S&P 500 had rallied 3% since the curve inverted on March 22 to the end of last week, before Trump's Sunday night tariff tweets erased almost all of those gains.