NOAA warns of heightened hurricane season while Trump eyes disaster response cuts

The big picture: This year is likely to have 13 to 19 named storms, with three to five of those being Category 3 hurricanes or stronger, according to National Weather Service director Ken Graham.

• This season isn't expected to be as active as last year's, he said, but it only takes one takes one storm to hit where you live.
• Colorado State University's forecast last month lines up with NOAA's — "above-normal" activity with 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes.

Zoom in: In response to questions about staffing cuts, Graham and acting NOAA administrator Laura Grimm told reporters Thursday they are confident in their forecasting ability for the season.

• Graham also told Axios that NWS this year is seeing the same level of interest in weather briefings from their federal partners, including FEMA, as compared to last year, despite those cutbacks.
• "We are fully staffed at the Hurricane Center, and we definitely are ready to go," Grimm said.

Zoom out: Michael Brennan, director of the National Hurricane Center, is slated to give his annual congressional briefing Thursday afternoon about hurricane season preparedness.

Meanwhile, U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem earlier this week reiterated the administration's priority to shift FEMA's responsibilities to states.

• "Our goal is that states should manage their emergencies and we come in and support them," she said at Tuesday's meeting to reform FEMA, according to Reuters.
• President Trump — whose budget proposes more than $646 million in cuts to FEMA — has signed executive orders aimed at streamlining the federal disaster agency and shifting more responsibility to the states, Axios' Natalie Daher writes. Fully eliminating FEMA would require an act of Congress.
• Other staffing cuts and changes being made to NOAA and its agencies, including the NWS, are raising concerns about reduced forecasting abilities.

Between the lines: David Richardson, the current acting head of FEMA as of earlier this month, has no experience managing natural disasters and acknowledged in private meetings that the agency doesn't yet have a fully formed hurricane response plan, the Wall Street Journal reported.

• "As FEMA transforms to a smaller footprint, the intent for this hurricane season is not well understood," warned an internal review obtained by CNN last week. "Thus FEMA is not ready."
• Since that leak, FEMA appears to be taking steps to bolster its disaster response efforts, according to CNN.

Threat level: Louisiana, Texas and Florida could face the greatest financial burdens in a world with less federal relief assistance, Axios' Alex Fitzpatrick writes, based on new analysis from the Carnegie Disaster Dollar Database.

• Louisiana residents also have received the most FEMA direct assistance since 2015, according to Carnegie.
• Louisiana's congressional delegation expressed concern earlier this month to Axios about the federal government's ability to respond to a large-scale disaster.

The intrigue: NOAA's leadership gave the forecast in Gretna, a suburb of New Orleans, in recognition of the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina's devastation in the region.

How it works: Atlantic hurricane season officially starts June 1, but storms can form any time.

• NHC began its daily tropical outlook May 15, and so far all has been quiet in the Gulf, Caribbean and Atlantic.
• Historically, the most active period for strong storms in the Gulf and the Atlantic is August and September.

What's next: Authorities urge residents to prepare now for the season by gathering emergency supplies, preparing their home for storms and making an evacuation plan.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional information.

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